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Now that insecurity has ‘ended’ by Sonala Olumhense

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Happy New Year, Nigeria!  According to the calendar of the Federal Government, insecurity is now ‘over.’

Following seven years’ worth of the President, Major General  Muhammadu Buhari’s (retd) meetings with security chiefs, various and persistent directives and orders, repeated budgetary provisions and outlays, declarations of intent and ambition, speeches at home and abroad, expensive orders of sophisticated military equipment, one of which led to an unresolved political blowout in July 2019 over the government’s spending of $1bn from the Excess Crude Account, insecurity in Nigeria slammed to a halt at midnight last night, December 31, 2022.

It is a new day and a new year!  Mr Buhari has done exactly as he promised as he ran for office in 2015, reiterated on a “Next Level” basis in 2019, and routinely assured Nigerians whenever a microphone was placed in front of him: he has ended the plague of insecurity.

For anyone who has great faith in the word of the government, this first day of 2023 is surely one to celebrate.  Remember, only as recently as October 2022, Rauf Aregbesola, who is Buhari’s Minister of the Interior, reminded Nigerians that the insecurity nationwide would end in December.

According to the Minister, Mr. Buhari himself had given his security agencies yesterday’s deadline.  “I believe that nobody is resting in [any of] the arms of government with the mandate of maintaining law and order, guaranteeing security and eliminating threats,” Mr Aregbesola stressed.  “We are at it, and in the first instance, we must ask ourselves, governance is about ensuring the security of lives and properties. We will eliminate all insecurity issues by December…Nigerians will definitely heave a sigh of relief at the end of the day.”

It has been quite some time getting here.  Earlier, during his Democracy Day Speech in June 2021, Mr Buhari recalled his pre-election commitment, just as he had done dozens of times before.

“When you elected me as your President in 2015, you did so knowing that I will put an end to the growing insecurity, especially the insurgency in the North-East, but the unintended consequences of our scattering them in the North-East pushed them further in-country which is what we are now facing and dealing with.

“We will, by the Grace of God put an end to these challenges too. Unfortunately, like in most conflict situations, some Nigerian criminals are taking undue advantage of a difficult situation and profiteering therefrom with the misguided belief that adherence to the democratic norms handicaps this administration from frontally and decisively tackling them. We are already addressing these obstacles and we will soon bring some of these culprits to justice.”

And then one month later, Mr. Buhari again restated his pledge when he held a presidential dinner for members of the National Assembly in Abuja.  He told them that his administration would use everything within its powers to end insecurity in the country and bring the criminals responsible to justice.

And so, with December 2022 now accomplished, Nigerians must jubilate that Mr. Buhari’s pledge about insecurity also has.  As of last night, Nigeria is now a secure country.

This means that no longer are members of ISWAP and Boko Haram controlling an inch of Nigerian territory.  No longer is banditry the nation’s most prominent industry.  No longer are parents afraid that their children may be snatched from classrooms to be forced into marriage or converted into soldiers.

This means that no longer are there AK47-wielding cattle herdsmen overrunning farms and towns and villages.  No longer are Nigerians afraid of sundry criminals emerging from badly-maintained highways to make their choice of travellers for kidnapping-for-ransom or the harvesting of body parts.

This means that no longer will intercity train services be sacked by criminals who are better-armed and more intelligent than members of Nigeria’s security services.  Train services will no longer be requiring the protection of the Nigeria Air Force or expensive private security.

It further means that no longer are security institutions such as Kuje Prison and the Nigeria Defence Academy and police stations and airports in any danger of being taken by armed bandits at will.  It means that no longer will Buhari’s armed presidential convoys require the protection of armed presidential convoys or the Nigeria Air Force.

It means that Nigerian businesses and offices are no longer in danger of being ransacked by unknown gunmen taking advantage of the indifference of indifferent governments which look the other way when citizens need them the most.  It means that citizens can now walk the streets, unafraid either of other men who attack simply because they can, or of policemen in uniforms who shoot and kill citizens because the citizens are unarmed.

This means that as decreed and declared by Mr Buhari, the era of insecurity that came into operation during the reign of his predecessors is over.  Nigerians can now emerge from the shadows and from hiding and resume their lives.

It means that neither Mr Buhari nor his security chiefs nor the state governors will ever again be bothered with questions about insecurity, such as why they themselves need extensive and heavily-armed convoys and road closures just to get to the airport or to return home.  It means that even the wife of the president will find her heavily-fortified official home to be secure enough for her to live in, rather than another country.

But of course, everyone knows that nothing is often what it seems in Nigeria, particularly when the motivation is an official pronouncement.  Nigeria did not become secure as of last midnight, just as it never became more secure in the past seven and a half years because Mr. Buhari broadcast his directives into every television camera.

Buhari did not start the insecurity in Nigeria, but he acquired the presidency partly by bragging that he was the man to end it.  Instead, he has boosted it year by year because he neither really understood the challenge nor was he willing to do what was required to bring it under control.

Prominent among those problems is that the Nigerian leader arrived in office lacking genuine commitment and for the insecurity and any other challenge that Nigeria faced.  It is why there is no aspect of his brief in which he accomplished anything beyond platitudes.

Sadly, Nigeria is increasingly insecure because of—rather than despite—Mr. Buhari.  Despite his government’s claims, Nigeria is worse than before his arrival, and the entire world knows it: it is more chaotic, more dysfunctional, and exceedingly more corrupt.  That is one explanation why some of Nigeria’s most infernal creatures are currently trying to succeed him next May.

That is why, as we enter January 2023, and with less than five months before Mr. Buhari leaves office, is for him to be apologising profusely for the cynicism and betrayal of the outgoing menace he superintends.

Happy New Year, Nigeria?   Please!

Strictly Personal

In 64 years, how has IDA reduced poverty in Africa? By Tee Ngugi

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The name of the organisation is as opaque as a name can get: World Bank’s International Development Association (IDA).

I had never heard of it. And suppose I, who follows socioeconomic developments that affect Africa, had never heard of it until last week when it convened in Nairobi. In that case, likely, only a handful of people outside those who serve its bureaucracy had ever heard of it.

Maybe IDA intends to remain shadowy like magicians, emerging occasionally to perform illusions that give hope to Africa’s impoverished masses that deliverance from poverty and despair is around the corner.

So, I had to research to find out who the new illusionist in town was. IDA was founded in 1960. Thirty-nine African countries, including Kenya, are members. Its mission is “to combat poverty by providing grants and low-interest loans to support programmes that foster economic growth, reduce inequalities, and enhance living standards for people in developing nations”.

It’s amazing how these kinds of organisations have developed a language that distorts reality. In George Orwell’s dystopian novel, Nineteen Eighty-Four, the totalitarian state of Oceania devises a new language. “Newspeak” limits the thoughts of citizens of Oceania so that they are incapable of questioning whatever the regime does.

Let’s juxtapose the reality in Africa against IDA’s mission. Africa has some of the poorest people in the world. It contributes a paltry two percent of international trade. It contributes less than one per cent of patents globally.

The continent has the largest wealth disparities in the world. Millions of people across Africa are food insecure, needing food aid. A study has indicated that Africa is among the most hostile regions in the world for women and girls, because of residual cultural attitudes and the failure of governments to implement gender equality policies.

Africa has the largest youth unemployment rate in the world. Africa’s political class is the wealthiest in the world. Africa remains unsustainably indebted. The people who live in Africa’s slums and unplanned urban sprawls have limited opportunities and are susceptible to violent crime and natural and manmade disasters.

As speeches in “Newspeak” were being made at the IDA conference, dozens of poor Kenyans were being killed by floods. These rains had been forecast, yet the government, not surprisingly, was caught flatfooted.

So in its 64-year existence, how has IDA reduced poverty and inequality in Africa? How has its work enhanced living standards when so many Africans are drowning in the Mediterranean Sea trying to escape grinding poverty and hopelessness?

As one watched the theatre of leaders of the poorest continent arriving at the IDA illusionists’ conference in multimillion-dollar vehicles, wearing designer suits and wristwatches, with men in dark suits and glasses acting a pantomime of intimidation, and then listened to their “Newspeak,” one felt like weeping for the continent. The illusionists had performed their sleight of hand.

Tee Ngugi is a Nairobi-based political commentator

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This Sudan war is too senseless; time we ended it, By Tee Ngugi

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Why are the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RPF) engaged in a vicious struggle? It is not that they have ideological, religious or cultural differences.

Not that people should fight because of these kinds of differences, but we live in a world where social constructions often lead to war and genocide. It is not that either side is fighting to protect democracy. Both sides were instruments of the rapacious dictatorship of Omar el-Bashir, who was overthrown in 2019.

 

Both are linked to the massacres in Darfur during Bashir’s rule that led to his indictment by the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity. They both stood by as ordinary, unarmed people took to the streets and forced the removal of the Bashir regime.

 

None of these entities now fighting to the last Sudanese citizen has any moral authority or constitutional legitimacy to claim power. They both should have been disbanded or fundamentally reformed after the ouster of Bashir.

 

The SAF and the RSF are fighting to take over power and resources and continue the repression and plunder of the regime they had supported for so long. And, as you can see from news broadcasts, they are both well-versed in violence and plunder.

 

Since the fighting began in 2023, both sides have been accused of massacres that have left more than 30,000 people dead. Their fighting has displaced close to 10 million people. Their scramble for power has created Sudan’s worst hunger crisis in decades. Millions of refugees have fled into Chad, Ethiopia and South Sudan.

 

The three countries are dubious places of refuge. Chad is a poor country because of misrule. It also experiences jihadist violence. Ethiopia is still simmering with tensions after a deadly inter-ethnic war.

 

And South Sudan has never recovered from a deadly ethnic competition for power and resources. African refugees fleeing to countries from which refugees recently fled or continue to flee sums up Africa’s unending crisis of governance.

 

Africa will continue to suffer these kinds of power struggles, state failure and breakdown of constitutional order until we take strengthening and depersonalising our institutions as a life and death issue. These institutions anchor constitutional order and democratic process.

 

Strong independent institutions would ensure the continuity of the constitutional order after the president leaves office. As it is, presidents systematically weaken institutions by putting sycophants and incompetent morons in charge. Thus when he leaves office by way of death, ouster or retirement, there is institutional collapse leading to chaos, power struggles and violence. The African Union pretends crises such as the one in Sudan are unfortunate abnormally. However, they are systemic and predictable. Corrupt dictatorships end in chaos and violence.

 

Tee Ngugi is a Nairobi-based political commentator.

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