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Nigeria’s oil subsidy could hit $16.2 billion in 2023 but government isn’t ready to bell the cat yet

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The sorry tale of Nigeria’s oil subsidy regime could become messier as the Finance Minister, Zainab Ahmed has revealed the West African could spend up to 6.72 trillion naira ($16.2 billion) next year on subsidy.

The minister said fuel subsidy could rise to nearly 70% jump from this year’s budget if it keeps it place.

Despite her increasing debt profile, Nigeria’s government in January postponed its planned removal of subsidy on petroleum products till further notice. Petrol subsidy payments reportedly gulped overN1.15 trillion 2021 alone, resulting in low revenue for federal, state and local governments to cater for developmental projects.

The minister made the revelation during a pre-2023 budget consultation in the federal capital Abuja. The second option “assumes that petrol subsidy will remain up to mid-2023…, in which case only 3.36 trillion (naira) will be provided for.”

“Revenue performance is expected to improve in the second half of 2022 as a result of concerted efforts to address the oil theft and pipelines vandalism,” the finance minister said.

Ahmed said the federal government was working with two scenarios, one that assumed a “business-as-usual” approach where a subsidy would be in place throughout 2023 and would cost 6.72 trillion naira.

Although Nigeria is one of the largest oil producers in the world, the West African country does not refine crude oil locally. State-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) has four refineries, two in Port Harcourt (PHRC), and one each in Kaduna (KRPC) and Warri (WRPC) but none has worked to capacity for years despite several investments to succinate the refineries.

Nigeria exports its oil for refining, and pays heavily to import the refined products and sell the Premium Motor Spirit at subsidized rate to final consumers. There has always been discrepancy on the actual figure of consumed petroleum product in Nigeria. The subsidy regime has eaten the country deeper than it can afford.

With the 2023 elections in sight, the Nigeria government appears not ready to bell the cat on the subsidy regime.

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Nigeria gets $600 million investment from Danish firm Moller-Maersk

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Nigeria’s presidency said on Sunday that President Bola Tinubu had secured an investment of $600 million from Danish shipping and logistics company, A.P. Moller-Maersk.

Nigerian ports will get more space for container shipping services as part of the deal by improving their facilities.

A presidential spokesman, Ajuri Ngelale, said in a statement that the decision was made by Mr Robert Maersk Uggla, Chairman of A.P. Moller-Maersk, during a meeting with President Tinubu on Sunday in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, at the World Economic Forum Special Meeting on Global Collaboration, Growth, and Energy for Development.

”We have seen a significant opportunity for Nigeria to cater for larger container ships. Historically, most of the West African coasts are already served by smaller ships. Currently, we see an opportunity to deploy larger ships to Nigeria. To achieve this, we need to expand the port infrastructure, especially in Lagos, where we need a bigger hub for logistics services. The growth potential is hard to quantify,” Ngelale quoted Uggla as saying.

”We believe in Nigeria, and we will invest $600 million in existing facilities and make the ports accommodating for bigger ships.”

Tinubu, for his part, thanked the company for what it did for the Nigerian economy.

“We appreciate your business and the contribution you have made and continue to make to our country’s economy over time. We do not take our partners for granted. A bet on Nigeria is a winning bet. It is also a bet that rewards beyond what is obtainable elsewhere,” Tinubu said.

“More investment opportunities are available, and my government has worked on various reforms to encourage investments. We need to encourage more opportunities for revenue expansion and minimize trans-shipments from larger ships to smaller ships.”

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Nigeria: Bureaux De Change operators to harmonise retail FX market

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Amidst the volatility around the Nigerian currency and its foreign exchange market, the Association of Bureaux De Change Operators in the country has revealed plans for a unified retail end of the foreign currency market.

 

In a statement released on Saturday, the association said that the move would reduce volatility and improve regulatory compliance in that market sector.

 

The lack of dollars has had a huge effect on Nigeria. In the past few weeks, the naira has hit all-time lows, and the central bank has had to weaken the currency twice in less than a year and launched campaigns against currency racketeers as well as other policies like banning Binance and other crypto companies’ online sites through the Nigerian Communications Commission to stop what the government saw as ongoing manipulation of the foreign exchange market and the illegal flow of money.

 

Aminu Gwadabe, President of ABCON, said that the organization was putting plans in place to bring together market operators from different backgrounds. These plans included starting state groups to coordinate, integrate, and run a single market structure.

 

Gwadebe said that all BDC owners in Nigerian markets would be taken care of when it was done. He also talked about plans to improve its Business Process Platform, which used to be known as SAAZ Master.

 

He said, “Part of our vision for a united retail-end forex market includes activating geo-mapping and automated BDCs physical office verification exercise using the Remote Gravity Physical verification apps. This will enable forex buyers to locate BDCs offices for effective and seamless transactions easily.”

 

He said again that a strong retail end forex market would help the Central Bank of Nigeria reach its goal of real price discovery for the naira, as well as meet international obligations and national goals, make it easier for security agencies to monitor and supervise, and give BDC players a better view of the market.

 

Gwadabe says that the goal of a unified retail end forex market will help with the creation of market intelligence reports, improve the image of BDCs, other players, and market operators both locally and internationally, and create more jobs.

 

Gwadabe said that if this plan is carried out well, it will help the government make money through a digitalized retail end market and create a well-structured, open, and competitive platform to stop the threat of illegal platforms.

 

“With the world going digital, BDC operators under the ABCON leadership are committed to staying ahead of the competition by deploying time-tested technology to deliver effective services to foreign exchange end-users.

 

“Finally, we also condemned in its entity, the seeming reappearance of illegal economic behaviours in forex conversion and peer-to-peer trading that pose another recent surprise in naira volatility and I therefore want to warn that while surprises are the new normal, resilience is also the new skills,” Gwadebe explained.

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