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World Bank doubts Ethiopia-IMF debt assessment

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Some officials of the World Bank have questioned if the study supporting Ethiopia’s debt restructuring may be “faulty” after criticising an evaluation of the country’s finances done with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

World Bank consultant, Brian Pinto, and its head economist, Indermit Gill, evaluated the July Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA), which was created by the IMF and employees of the International Development Association (IDA), the World Bank’s fund for the world’s poorest countries, in an internal document seen by Reuters.

According to the authors, Ethiopia is experiencing a short-term cash shortage rather than a long-term solvency problem, which is a source of conflict between the government and holders of its $1 billion international bond that is in default, based on the DSA.

“We found that the bondholders have interpreted the DSA correctly, but the DSA itself may be faulty,” Pinto and Gill wrote in the paper from earlier this month. “The disagreements about Ethiopia’s debt sustainability will be repeated as other countries become debt distressed.”

A World Bank representative responded to a question regarding the paper by saying, “We generally don’t comment on internal deliberations between the World Bank and the IMF or any of our partner institutions.”

As part of the most recent review of the Fund’s loan program, Ethiopian State Finance Minister Eyob Tekalign told Reuters that the DSA had just been reviewed by IMF and World Bank teams and that the status had not changed significantly.

Without providing further details, an IMF representative acknowledged that its officials travelled to Ethiopia in November for the second review of the Fund’s loan program and added that every review incorporates an update to the DSA. Regarding the memo, the spokeswoman remained silent.

A request for comment from Pinto and Gill was not answered. There has been a tense confrontation between Ethiopian officials and bondholders.

The main point of contention is whether, as bondholders contend, Ethiopia is experiencing a liquidity shortage that may be resolved by rescheduling debt or if it is experiencing longer-term financial issues that necessitate haircuts, or debt write-downs.

According to the DSA, certain statistics on exports indicated pressures on both liquidity and solvency.

It was reported in October that the DSA indicated a solvency problem and that writedowns were inevitable. Investors have criticised a government proposal that suggests an 18% haircut in addition to rejecting the evaluation.

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Musings From Abroad

Swiss company Mercuria partners Zambia’s IDC in new metals trading firm

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According to a statement released by Swiss commodities trader, Mercuria, on Thursday, it has established a metals trading arm with Zambia, the second-largest producer of copper in Africa.

The trading unit is jointly owned by Mercuria and an arm of Zambia’s Industrial Development Company (IDC), and its purpose is to allow Zambia to engage directly in the minerals trading market.

The joint venture “envisages the establishment of a vehicle to market and trade Zambian copper by mutual leverage,” according to a statement from Cornwell Muleya, the CEO of IDC.

The southern African nation wants to increase copper output to roughly 3 million metric tonnes within the next ten years, and in 2023, it produced roughly 698,000 tonnes of copper, down from 763,000 metric tonnes the year before.

In June, the Zambian government announced that it would establish a minerals trading unit.

Investors including First Quantum Minerals and Barrick Gold are ramping up production, with output set to receive a further boost once Vedanta Resources’ Konkola Copper Mines restart activity.

“Our joint venture with IDC marks a significant milestone for Zambia as it positions itself more strategically in the global minerals market,” Kostas Bintas, Mercuria’s global head of metals and minerals, said in the statement.

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Musings From Abroad

Blinken to reveal UN Sudan funding additions

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Additional financing for humanitarian aid to Sudan and initiatives to strengthen civil society in the nation, where a conflict has killed tens of thousands of people and displaced millions, will be announced by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken at the United Nations on Thursday.

Blinken will make many announcements when he leads a UN Security Council meeting on Sudan on Thursday, which will centre on humanitarian aid and civilian protection, Deputy U.S. Representative to the UN Ned Price told reporters on Wednesday.

According to Price, the announcements would include more money for humanitarian help, initiatives to strengthen civil society, and the return of democracy.

“Sudan, unfortunately, has risked becoming a forgotten conflict,” Price said.

“So part of the reason the secretary … opted to convene a signature event on this very topic is to make sure it remains in the spotlight,” Price said.

For almost 18 months, the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces and Sudan’s army have been engaged in combat, resulting in a severe humanitarian crisis that has forced over 12 million people from their homes and made it difficult for U.N. organisations to provide aid.

A power struggle between the RSF and the Sudanese Armed Forces preceded a planned shift to civilian administration, which sparked the conflict in April 2023.

Although the army declined to join this year’s U.S.-mediated peace negotiations in Geneva, the warring parties did pledge to increase assistance access, which prevented any movement towards a ceasefire.

Price stated that before President Joe Biden’s term ends next month, the United States would keep collaborating with allies to enhance humanitarian access in Sudan and eventually end hostilities.

“We are going to leave nothing on the field in our efforts to work with allies, with partners, with the Sudanese stakeholders themselves, on the issues that matter most – humanitarian access, the provision of humanitarian assistance, ultimately, the process by which we can work to get to a cessation of hostilities, which is most urgently needed,” he said.

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