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Illicit flows cost Nigeria, others $1.6bn daily— AfDB

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According to the African Development Bank (AfDB), illicit money flows and profit shifting by multinational corporations doing business in Africa cost the continent over $1.6 billion per day. Kevin Urama, AfDB’s Chief Economist, revealed this in a recent interview.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) defines illicit financial flows as cross-border money transfers that are unlawful in their source (such as smuggling or corruption), transmission (such as tax evasion), or use (such as financing terrorism).

The IMF has been a major player in global initiatives to stop these ambiguous and frequently destabilising transfers for many years. Additionally, it has long been concerned about flows that are linked to tax evasion but are not necessarily criminal.

According to Urama, Africa was losing more foreign direct investment than it was gaining, and stakeholders should concentrate on preventing the outflow rather than pursuing inflows.

He said, “There are so many things that happen on the continent that make corruption a big issue. And some estimations show that Africa loses about 248 billion US dollars every year due to corruption. If you add illicit financial flows of over $90bn and add profit shifting; corporates operate in Africa but then maybe have headquarters somewhere else and they find clever accounting ways of legally not paying taxes. In Africa, we are losing about $275bn. When you sum all these up, these are things you can trace through banks, then you find that Africa is losing about $587bn every year.

“That’s about $1.61bn every day. Yet we spend all our time chasing FDI, foreign direct investment, official development assistance, portfolio flows and remittances. All these together during the year we did this study for 2022 was about $174.5bn. That’s less than three times, I mean what we are losing is three times more than what we are getting from the global market. So how do we engage with the global market? Are we not focusing on the wrong priorities? Because if you ask me if I’m losing almost $600bn, I will focus on how not to lose it instead of going to get more. Tackling it is what we are doing.

The quality of institutions, accountability systems for institutions, and the capacity of individuals in government, in public service to first understand the implications of decisions they make, as well as the tools, regulations, policies, principles, and technologies to track it down and stem it, are some ways to stop the outflow, Urama said.

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Nigeria: Marketers predict further price cut as another refinery begins operations

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Oil marketers and the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority expect refined petroleum product prices to reduce as another public refinery in Warri begins operations.

The marketers made the prediction when the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited launched the 125,000-barrel-per-day Delta State WRPC. NNPCL also wants to export locally refined goods for foreign cash. Last month, the 60,000-barrel-per-day Port Harcourt Refinery in Rivers State began operations.

During an inspection tour of the facility on Monday, the NNPCL Group Chief Executive Officer, Mele Kyari, explained that the inspection aimed to show Nigerians the level of work completed so far.

During a tour with NMDPRA CEO Farouk Ahmed and NNPC Board Chairman Pius Akinyelure, Kyari said that while facility repairs were not yet 100% complete, refining operations had begun and would produce straight-run kerosene, diesel and naphtha.

In a statement commemorating the milestone, President Bola Tinubu stated the plant is functioning at 60% or 75,000 barrels per day.

Kyari said, “We are taking you through our plant. This plant is running. Although it is not 100 per cent complete, we are still in the process. Many people think these things are not real. They think real things are not possible in this country. We want you to see that this is real.”

Since some of these goods would be shipped to foreign markets, he said, the reopening of the Warri refinery will help the country become a net exporter of petroleum products.

“Secondly, this plant had three stages; we have started plant one, which we call Area One. It can produce AGO (diesel), kerosene, naphtha, and a blend of crude oil. These are high-grade quality products required in the country, and we may need to export them. So this will give us cash, this company will make money and the promise of Mr President that this country must be a net exporter of petroleum products is already happening. Some of these products will go into the international market.

“Most importantly, I must put on record that Mr President believes that we can get this to work and get them to start and gave us the charge that we must start all three refineries. It’s already happening; we have started the 60,000 barrels per day refinery, and Area One of the Warri refinery is already working. Other plants that would produce PMS are being streamed and they would also come alive.

Mustapha Zarma, the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria’s National Operations Controller, stated that the rivalry in the downstream oil industry will become more fierce.

There will undoubtedly be a further decrease in pricing if the plant begins producing goods in bulk, he stated. This is because the market will ultimately be influenced by market forces and there will be fierce rivalry.

Until recently, none of Nigeria’s publicly owned refineries has worked to capacity for years, despite several investments to revive them. The failure of the government to revive them contributed to the high level of national anticipation surrounding the Dangote refinery whose operations appear to have revolutionalised the industry.

The refinery will concentrate on manufacturing and storing essential goods, such as heavy and light naphtha, automotive petrol oil and straight-run kerosene.

The country’s first fully owned refinery, the WRPC, was put into service in 1978 and is situated in Warri, Delta State, Nigeria. It was first built to process 100,000 barrels of crude oil a day, but in 1987 it was updated to process 125,000 barrels.

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Kenya: Consumer inflation rises to 3.0% from 2.8%

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Kenya’s statistics agency said on Tuesday that Kenya’s consumer price inflation increased slightly to 3.0% year-over-year in December from 2.8% the previous month.

According to a release from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, monthly inflation was 0.6%, down from 0.3% in November. Kenya aims to have a medium-term inflation rate of 2.5% to 7.5%.

With inflation under control, Kenya’s central bank said there was an opportunity for looser policy to assist economic development, lowering its benchmark lending rate by a larger-than-expected 75 basis points to 11.25% on December 5.

 

Kenya’s GDP expanded by 5.2% in 2023, up from 4.8% in 2022, thanks to a recovery in agriculture and a modest increase in services. Household consumption accounted for 70% of the growth on the demand side, while services and agriculture accounted for 69% and 23% of the growth, respectively, on the supply side.

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