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Again, Nigeria’s central bank raises interest rate amid inflationary pressure

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Nigeria’s central bank hiked its benchmark interest rate for the sixth time this year on Tuesday, citing inflationary and currency rate pressures in Africa’s most populous nation.

The Monetary Policy Rate was raised by 25 basis points to 27.50%, bringing the year’s total rises to 875 basis points. On Tuesday, most Reuters economists projected additional policy tightening.

In October, inflation increased for the second consecutive month to 33.88% in annual terms (NGCPIY=ECI), starting a new chapter in the nation’s most severe cost-of-living crisis in decades.

Olayemi Cardoso, governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, stated that prolonged pressure on the naira currency was concerning and that food and energy costs were major causes of the increase in inflation.

“Members therefore agreed unanimously to remain focused in addressing price developments,” he told a news conference in the capital Abuja.

According to Cardoso, the central bank is dedicated to the “war against inflation” and anticipates that the first quarter of 2025 will see the full impact of its tightening measures.

“It’s also important for people to understand that there’s a time lag between when you implement policies and when they have an impact,” he said.

President Bola Tinubu’s actions to reduce energy and petrol subsidies and weaken the naira last year have increased price pressure.

Although the growth rate is still well behind Tinubu’s objective of 6%, such actions are intended to boost economic growth and strengthen public finances in Africa’s largest oil producer.

Although it did not anticipate rate reduction until the second quarter of next year, Capital Economics stated in a research note following Tuesday’s raise that it believed Nigeria’s tightening cycle was finished.

A stable naira would be essential for controlling inflation, according to Razia Khan of Standard Chartered, and more rises would not be necessary if the central bank was able to achieve currency stability.

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IMF, Egypt reach agreement for fourth review of Egypt’s $1.2 billion loan request

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Egypt and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have reached a staff-level agreement over the fourth review of the Extended Fund Facility arrangement, which might lead to a $1.2 billion payout under the program.

In March, Egypt, struggling with rising inflation and cash shortages, consented to the $8 billion, 46-month facility. Its economic problems were made worse by a precipitous drop in Suez Canal revenue over the last year due to regional tensions.

Over the next two years, Egypt’s government has committed to raising its tax-to-revenue ratio by 2% of GDP, according to the IMF, emphasising removing exemptions rather than raising taxes.

According to a statement from the IMF, this would allow it to expand social expenditure to support vulnerable populations.

“While the authorities’ plans to streamline and simplify the tax system are commendable, further reforms will be needed to enhance domestic revenue mobilization efforts,” the statement said.

According to the IMF statement, Egypt had also committed to maintaining its commitment to a flexible currency rate and to taking more urgent action to guarantee that the private sector became the primary driver of development.

The IMF’s executive board still has to accept the fourth review’s staff-level agreement.

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Libya’s eastern govt accepts petrol subsidy elimination

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In a recent statement, the eastern government of Libya claimed it had reached a consensus on a plan to eliminate gasoline subsidies and would draft a mechanism to carry out the accord.

Additional information on the idea was not released by the administration led by Osama Hamad, a challenger to the internationally acknowledged Tripoli-based government.

However, it is uncertain if Hamad’s government would be able to carry out the plan in the divided nation.

According to the Global Petrol Prices online tracker, a litre of gasoline costs just 0.150 Libyan dinars ($0.03) in OPEC member Libya, making it the second-cheapest in the world.

Following an uprising against former ruler Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, smuggling networks have thrived in the ensuing political unrest and armed fighting. In 2014, conflicting eastern and western governments separated the nation.

A World Bank analysis estimates that the annual value of fuel smuggling from Libya is at least $5 billion.

In a meeting with Mari Barrasi, the deputy governor of the Central Bank of Libya (CBL), located in Tripoli, and four members of the bank’s board of directors, Hamad in Benghazi supported the idea of removing subsidies.

The CBL’s Benghazi branch offices served as the venue for the conference.

The eastern parliament appointed Hamad in 2023 to succeed Abdulhamid Dbeibah, who had been put in position in 2021 under a U.N.-backed procedure that the parliament said had lost its legitimacy.

Dbeibah, who is located in Tripoli, stated in January that he will conduct a public poll on the topic of eliminating gasoline subsidies, but he hasn’t done anything about it since.

According to CBL figures, gasoline subsidies cost 12.8 billion Libyan dinars between January and November of this year. 4.8 Libyan dinars to $1 is the official exchange rate.

 

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