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Nigeria’s socio-economic progress hampered by debt servicing— IMF

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According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Nigeria devotes the majority of its income to paying off its debt, leaving little money for important economic initiatives.

Davide Furceri, Division Chief of the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department, emphasised the necessity for Nigeria to implement more efficient revenue mobilisation strategies to alleviate this financial burden during the Fiscal Monitor press briefing at the ongoing IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings in Washington, DC.

Furceri pointed out that the government’s capacity to fund social and economic initiatives is severely limited by Nigeria’s debt service-to-revenue ratio, which is approximately 60%.

He emphasised that even while the debt service-to-GDP ratio has decreased from about 100% to 60%, the nation still needs to focus on expanding its tax base in order to significantly lower the portion of its income that is used for debt repayments.

He said, “There is a need to grow the revenue-to-GDP ratio. For a country Like Nigeria, the Debt Service-to-Revenue is about 60 per cent. What that means is that a larger part of the revenue of the country goes into debt servicing. What we recommend for countries like Nigeria, if they can improve their revenue mobilisation, they will be able to reduce the portion of the revenue that goes into debt servicing.

“It is important to broaden the tax base to have more revenue and especially in Nigeria to put in place a system and mechanism that is transparent and efficient to assist the government in collecting more revenue.”

He urged the government to enhance its fiscal operations to increase revenue and called for the establishment of an open and effective tax collection system.

Furthermore, according to forecasts in the IMF’s Fiscal Monitor Report, which was made public on Thursday, Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP ratio is predicted to decrease from its current level of 50.7% to 49.6% by 2025.

It stated that the Central Bank of Nigeria’s overdrafts and the Asset Management Corporation of Nigeria’s obligations are included in the nation’s public debt.

“The overdrafts and government deposits at the Central Bank of Nigeria almost cancel each other out, and the Asset Management Corporation of Nigeria debt is roughly halved.” The report noted.

According to other forecasts, the debt-to-GDP ratio will decrease to 48.5% in 2026 and 48.2% in 2027, then slightly increase to 48.8% in 2028 and 49.1% in 2029.

The IMF underlined that in addition to increasing revenue, the government must put in place targeted social safety nets to protect disadvantaged populations from the effects of environmental issues and inflation.

Nigeria’s public debt stock, which comprises both domestic and foreign debt, increased by 24.99% from N97.34 trillion (US$108.23 billion) in Q4 2023 to N121.67 trillion (US$91.46 billion) in Q1 2024.

In the first quarter of 2024, the entire amount of external debt was N56.02 trillion (US$42.12 billion), while the total amount of domestic debt was N65.65 trillion (US$49.35 billion).

In the first quarter of 2024, the proportion of external debt (measured in naira value) to total public debt was 46.05%, whilst the proportion of domestic debt (measured in naira value) to total public debt was 53.95%.

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Nigeria: Marketers predict further price cut as another refinery begins operations

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Oil marketers and the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority expect refined petroleum product prices to reduce as another public refinery in Warri begins operations.

The marketers made the prediction when the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited launched the 125,000-barrel-per-day Delta State WRPC. NNPCL also wants to export locally refined goods for foreign cash. Last month, the 60,000-barrel-per-day Port Harcourt Refinery in Rivers State began operations.

During an inspection tour of the facility on Monday, the NNPCL Group Chief Executive Officer, Mele Kyari, explained that the inspection aimed to show Nigerians the level of work completed so far.

During a tour with NMDPRA CEO Farouk Ahmed and NNPC Board Chairman Pius Akinyelure, Kyari said that while facility repairs were not yet 100% complete, refining operations had begun and would produce straight-run kerosene, diesel and naphtha.

In a statement commemorating the milestone, President Bola Tinubu stated the plant is functioning at 60% or 75,000 barrels per day.

Kyari said, “We are taking you through our plant. This plant is running. Although it is not 100 per cent complete, we are still in the process. Many people think these things are not real. They think real things are not possible in this country. We want you to see that this is real.”

Since some of these goods would be shipped to foreign markets, he said, the reopening of the Warri refinery will help the country become a net exporter of petroleum products.

“Secondly, this plant had three stages; we have started plant one, which we call Area One. It can produce AGO (diesel), kerosene, naphtha, and a blend of crude oil. These are high-grade quality products required in the country, and we may need to export them. So this will give us cash, this company will make money and the promise of Mr President that this country must be a net exporter of petroleum products is already happening. Some of these products will go into the international market.

“Most importantly, I must put on record that Mr President believes that we can get this to work and get them to start and gave us the charge that we must start all three refineries. It’s already happening; we have started the 60,000 barrels per day refinery, and Area One of the Warri refinery is already working. Other plants that would produce PMS are being streamed and they would also come alive.

Mustapha Zarma, the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria’s National Operations Controller, stated that the rivalry in the downstream oil industry will become more fierce.

There will undoubtedly be a further decrease in pricing if the plant begins producing goods in bulk, he stated. This is because the market will ultimately be influenced by market forces and there will be fierce rivalry.

Until recently, none of Nigeria’s publicly owned refineries has worked to capacity for years, despite several investments to revive them. The failure of the government to revive them contributed to the high level of national anticipation surrounding the Dangote refinery whose operations appear to have revolutionalised the industry.

The refinery will concentrate on manufacturing and storing essential goods, such as heavy and light naphtha, automotive petrol oil and straight-run kerosene.

The country’s first fully owned refinery, the WRPC, was put into service in 1978 and is situated in Warri, Delta State, Nigeria. It was first built to process 100,000 barrels of crude oil a day, but in 1987 it was updated to process 125,000 barrels.

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Kenya: Consumer inflation rises to 3.0% from 2.8%

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Kenya’s statistics agency said on Tuesday that Kenya’s consumer price inflation increased slightly to 3.0% year-over-year in December from 2.8% the previous month.

According to a release from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, monthly inflation was 0.6%, down from 0.3% in November. Kenya aims to have a medium-term inflation rate of 2.5% to 7.5%.

With inflation under control, Kenya’s central bank said there was an opportunity for looser policy to assist economic development, lowering its benchmark lending rate by a larger-than-expected 75 basis points to 11.25% on December 5.

 

Kenya’s GDP expanded by 5.2% in 2023, up from 4.8% in 2022, thanks to a recovery in agriculture and a modest increase in services. Household consumption accounted for 70% of the growth on the demand side, while services and agriculture accounted for 69% and 23% of the growth, respectively, on the supply side.

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