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Uganda refinances $2 billion worth of state debt paper

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Amidst mounting concerns about Uganda’s economy’s debt crisis, the total value of refinanced government securities exceeded 50% of all Treasury Bills and bonds issued in the fiscal year 2023–2024. This scenario portends higher borrowing prices.

Rolling over maturing Treasury Bills and bonds by extending their expiration date, paying outstanding interest, and applying new pricing terms are all considered forms of refinancing government debt securities.

According to the Finance Ministry’s most recent data, the entire projected value of refinanced securities was estimated at Ush8, 358.5 billion ($2.2 billion) during the same period, while government-issued Treasury Bills and bonds were valued at Ush15,021.3 billion ($4 billion) in the fiscal year 2023–2024.

The remaining Ush6, 662.8 billion, or $1.78 billion, was set aside to pay for regular budgetary expenses.

The data shows that Treasury bonds worth US$ 893.4 billion ($238.5 million) were refinanced in June 2024, whereas Treasury bonds worth Ush599.7 billion ($160 million) were refinanced in May 2024.

July 2024 saw the raising of a total of Ush1, 576.3 billion ($420.9 million) from the domestic debt market.

According to the statistics, budget expenditure for the first quarter of 2024–2025 was allotted Ush1,048.6 billion ($279.9 million), with the remaining Ush527.7 billion ($140.9 million) going towards debt refinancing.

Financial market sources quoted by The East Africa that the primary objective of the refinancing operations is Treasury Bonds with high interest rates and a five- to 15-year lifespan.

“Whenever the government announces a refinancing exercise for some government securities, interest rates on Treasury Bills and bonds tend to go up because investors feel the government is desperate for money. However, the increase in government debt servicing costs tied to refinancing is not big. It could be less than one per cent to date.

When the total amount of maturing Treasury Bills and bonds plus investor interest exceeds available tax revenues, refinancing of government securities becomes essential. In such a case, paying debt redemption costs and interest might leave the government with no money left over for other budgetary goals.

Conversely, refinancing reduces the amount of debt owed by deferring redemption charges and paying off investor interest commitments.

Foreign investors are extremely concerned about inflation and exchange rate fluctuations in the local economy, while local investors are keenly interested in inflation movements and their impact on returns on investment,” according to Dr Kenneth Egesa, Communications Director of the Bank of Uganda (BoU).

“Refinancing involves rolling over maturities of government debt securities for a longer duration in the domestic debt market. Through refinancing, the government can borrow old money and take care of existing needs.

For example, the Ministry of Health recently requested cash of US$ 35 billion ($9.3 million) for the deployment of medical intern doctors, but this request has not been met due to severe budget cuts across all sectors.

“It has crippled government operations as there is limited liquidity. Some investors are looking at only short-term lending to government of not more than three years,” noted Dr Fred Muhumuza, a local economist.

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Nigeria: Marketers predict further price cut as another refinery begins operations

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Oil marketers and the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority expect refined petroleum product prices to reduce as another public refinery in Warri begins operations.

The marketers made the prediction when the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited launched the 125,000-barrel-per-day Delta State WRPC. NNPCL also wants to export locally refined goods for foreign cash. Last month, the 60,000-barrel-per-day Port Harcourt Refinery in Rivers State began operations.

During an inspection tour of the facility on Monday, the NNPCL Group Chief Executive Officer, Mele Kyari, explained that the inspection aimed to show Nigerians the level of work completed so far.

During a tour with NMDPRA CEO Farouk Ahmed and NNPC Board Chairman Pius Akinyelure, Kyari said that while facility repairs were not yet 100% complete, refining operations had begun and would produce straight-run kerosene, diesel and naphtha.

In a statement commemorating the milestone, President Bola Tinubu stated the plant is functioning at 60% or 75,000 barrels per day.

Kyari said, “We are taking you through our plant. This plant is running. Although it is not 100 per cent complete, we are still in the process. Many people think these things are not real. They think real things are not possible in this country. We want you to see that this is real.”

Since some of these goods would be shipped to foreign markets, he said, the reopening of the Warri refinery will help the country become a net exporter of petroleum products.

“Secondly, this plant had three stages; we have started plant one, which we call Area One. It can produce AGO (diesel), kerosene, naphtha, and a blend of crude oil. These are high-grade quality products required in the country, and we may need to export them. So this will give us cash, this company will make money and the promise of Mr President that this country must be a net exporter of petroleum products is already happening. Some of these products will go into the international market.

“Most importantly, I must put on record that Mr President believes that we can get this to work and get them to start and gave us the charge that we must start all three refineries. It’s already happening; we have started the 60,000 barrels per day refinery, and Area One of the Warri refinery is already working. Other plants that would produce PMS are being streamed and they would also come alive.

Mustapha Zarma, the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria’s National Operations Controller, stated that the rivalry in the downstream oil industry will become more fierce.

There will undoubtedly be a further decrease in pricing if the plant begins producing goods in bulk, he stated. This is because the market will ultimately be influenced by market forces and there will be fierce rivalry.

Until recently, none of Nigeria’s publicly owned refineries has worked to capacity for years, despite several investments to revive them. The failure of the government to revive them contributed to the high level of national anticipation surrounding the Dangote refinery whose operations appear to have revolutionalised the industry.

The refinery will concentrate on manufacturing and storing essential goods, such as heavy and light naphtha, automotive petrol oil and straight-run kerosene.

The country’s first fully owned refinery, the WRPC, was put into service in 1978 and is situated in Warri, Delta State, Nigeria. It was first built to process 100,000 barrels of crude oil a day, but in 1987 it was updated to process 125,000 barrels.

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Kenya: Consumer inflation rises to 3.0% from 2.8%

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Kenya’s statistics agency said on Tuesday that Kenya’s consumer price inflation increased slightly to 3.0% year-over-year in December from 2.8% the previous month.

According to a release from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, monthly inflation was 0.6%, down from 0.3% in November. Kenya aims to have a medium-term inflation rate of 2.5% to 7.5%.

With inflation under control, Kenya’s central bank said there was an opportunity for looser policy to assist economic development, lowering its benchmark lending rate by a larger-than-expected 75 basis points to 11.25% on December 5.

 

Kenya’s GDP expanded by 5.2% in 2023, up from 4.8% in 2022, thanks to a recovery in agriculture and a modest increase in services. Household consumption accounted for 70% of the growth on the demand side, while services and agriculture accounted for 69% and 23% of the growth, respectively, on the supply side.

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