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RSF to join as US invites Sudan’s warring parties for talks

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US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, announced Tuesday that the Sudanese army and Rapid Support Forces will participate in U.S.-mediated peace talks in Switzerland on Aug. 14.

RSF head Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo said early Wednesday they will constructively participate in discussions to achieve “a comprehensive ceasefire across the country and facilitate humanitarian access to all those in need.”

“We reaffirm our firm stance … which is the insistence on saving lives, stopping the fighting, and paving the way for a peaceful, negotiated political solution that restores the country to civilian rule and the path of democratic transition,” Dagalo said in a statement.

Blinken announced that the African Union, Egypt, UAE, and UN will observe the negotiations. Saudi Arabia will co-host the talks, he said.

“The scale of death, suffering, and destruction in Sudan is devastating. This senseless conflict must end,” Blinken said, calling on the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) to attend the talks and approach them constructively.

South Sudan’s economy is struggling due to intercommunal warfare. The 2013–2018 civil war reduced crude oil export revenue, and the Sudanese conflict has disrupted exports.

International Organization for Migration (IOM) reports that the RSF’s southeast expansion recently displaced about 150,000 people from Sennar state. Following RSF raids on residences and markets in the state’s small towns and villages, many of these people were rehoused again.

The April 2023 Sudanese war has displaced almost 10 million people, caused famine warnings, and started ethnically-driven violence blamed on the RSF. Last year, US-Saudi Arabia-sponsored army-RSF talks in Jeddah collapsed.

On Tuesday, State Department spokeswoman Matthew Miller told reporters that the meetings in Switzerland were meant to build on Jeddah and go forward.

“We just want to get the parties back to the table, and what we determined is that bringing the parties, the three host nations and the observers together is the best shot that we have right now at getting the nationwide cessation of violence,” Miller said.

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Musings From Abroad

World Bank doubts Ethiopia-IMF debt assessment

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Some officials of the World Bank have questioned if the study supporting Ethiopia’s debt restructuring may be “faulty” after criticising an evaluation of the country’s finances done with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

World Bank consultant, Brian Pinto, and its head economist, Indermit Gill, evaluated the July Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA), which was created by the IMF and employees of the International Development Association (IDA), the World Bank’s fund for the world’s poorest countries, in an internal document seen by Reuters.

According to the authors, Ethiopia is experiencing a short-term cash shortage rather than a long-term solvency problem, which is a source of conflict between the government and holders of its $1 billion international bond that is in default, based on the DSA.

“We found that the bondholders have interpreted the DSA correctly, but the DSA itself may be faulty,” Pinto and Gill wrote in the paper from earlier this month. “The disagreements about Ethiopia’s debt sustainability will be repeated as other countries become debt distressed.”

A World Bank representative responded to a question regarding the paper by saying, “We generally don’t comment on internal deliberations between the World Bank and the IMF or any of our partner institutions.”

As part of the most recent review of the Fund’s loan program, Ethiopian State Finance Minister Eyob Tekalign told Reuters that the DSA had just been reviewed by IMF and World Bank teams and that the status had not changed significantly.

Without providing further details, an IMF representative acknowledged that its officials travelled to Ethiopia in November for the second review of the Fund’s loan program and added that every review incorporates an update to the DSA. Regarding the memo, the spokeswoman remained silent.

A request for comment from Pinto and Gill was not answered. There has been a tense confrontation between Ethiopian officials and bondholders.

The main point of contention is whether, as bondholders contend, Ethiopia is experiencing a liquidity shortage that may be resolved by rescheduling debt or if it is experiencing longer-term financial issues that necessitate haircuts, or debt write-downs.

According to the DSA, certain statistics on exports indicated pressures on both liquidity and solvency.

It was reported in October that the DSA indicated a solvency problem and that writedowns were inevitable. Investors have criticised a government proposal that suggests an 18% haircut in addition to rejecting the evaluation.

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Musings From Abroad

Swiss company Mercuria partners Zambia’s IDC in new metals trading firm

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According to a statement released by Swiss commodities trader, Mercuria, on Thursday, it has established a metals trading arm with Zambia, the second-largest producer of copper in Africa.

The trading unit is jointly owned by Mercuria and an arm of Zambia’s Industrial Development Company (IDC), and its purpose is to allow Zambia to engage directly in the minerals trading market.

The joint venture “envisages the establishment of a vehicle to market and trade Zambian copper by mutual leverage,” according to a statement from Cornwell Muleya, the CEO of IDC.

The southern African nation wants to increase copper output to roughly 3 million metric tonnes within the next ten years, and in 2023, it produced roughly 698,000 tonnes of copper, down from 763,000 metric tonnes the year before.

In June, the Zambian government announced that it would establish a minerals trading unit.

Investors including First Quantum Minerals and Barrick Gold are ramping up production, with output set to receive a further boost once Vedanta Resources’ Konkola Copper Mines restart activity.

“Our joint venture with IDC marks a significant milestone for Zambia as it positions itself more strategically in the global minerals market,” Kostas Bintas, Mercuria’s global head of metals and minerals, said in the statement.

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