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Nigeria: Marketers worry about expensive petrol ahead of supply from Dangote Refinery

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There are concerns by petroleum marketers in Nigeria that the price of Premium Motor Spirit, also known as petrol, may rise higher than expected as petrol from privately-run Dangote Petrochemical Refinery hits the local market in two to three weeks.

The 650,000-capacity refinery’s unsuccessful attempt to obtain feedstock locally from foreign oil firms was the background against which the marketers talked. The marketers, in Interview, expressed concern that the cost of importing crude oil would affect production costs, perhaps leading to an increase in the Dangote PMS’s ex-depot price.

At a greater cost, Dangote Refinery has persisted in importing crude oil from the US and other nations. Some local marketers claim that this development has made their diesel and aviation fuel less appealing to them because of cost.

Nigeria’s state-owned refineries have not operated at full capacity for many years, despite numerous attempts to bring them back online. The high level of national anticipation surrounding the Dangote refinery is partly attributed to the failures of both the previous and present governments. The country has been hopeful that the Dangote refinery will cut down the price of PMS which jumped from around N200/litre to over N600/litre after the removal of fuel subsidies by President Bola Tinubu on May 29, 2023.

Stakeholders worry that Nigerians’ hopes of obtaining less expensive PMS may be dashed due to Dangote’s lack of access to local crude oil. The Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria’s National Vice President, Hammed Fashola, stated that the organization feared crude imports would cause Dangote gasoline prices to spike.

Even while Fashola agreed that the IOCs also have other commercial obligations, he said that the rejection of the IOCs to supply crude oil to Dangote would be a significant issue for the $20 billion refinery.

“The non-supply of crude is a big challenge for Dangote. You know Dangote cried out too. The international oil companies too will have their reasons; you know they have their commitments too. It’s not like they will start feeding Dangote only. People should understand that. I think Dangote should consider that. I know this prompted Dangote to go outside the soil of Nigeria to seek crude oil. You know when he keeps bringing crude oil from the United States, that is another cost. That is another problem we are scared of because it will still boil down to the high cost of petrol, unlike where he can source the crude locally in Nigeria,” Fashola said.

“I will advise that the government should assist Dangote in the supply of crude oil. If Dangote can get an adequate supply of crude oil locally, I think the whole problem will be solved somehow. I don’t think there will be any need for anybody to go and bring in petrol again, especially if Dangote is selling at a reasonable price,” he added.

However, Fashola ordered Dangote to refrain from monopolizing the petroleum industry if he eventually gained government approval, stating that the refinery had to charge a fair price for PMS.

“Dangote too should not see it as an advantage to start monopolising the market by raising fuel prices. Dangote has to come with a clean mind by selling at a reasonable price to the public, otherwise, people will still go and start importing if Dangote’s price is high. But if the price is normal and anybody who brings in product from abroad knows that he would run at a loss, nobody will venture into it. Dangote should be sincere, and the government should support him,” he stated.

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Nigeria: Marketers predict further price cut as another refinery begins operations

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Oil marketers and the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority expect refined petroleum product prices to reduce as another public refinery in Warri begins operations.

The marketers made the prediction when the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited launched the 125,000-barrel-per-day Delta State WRPC. NNPCL also wants to export locally refined goods for foreign cash. Last month, the 60,000-barrel-per-day Port Harcourt Refinery in Rivers State began operations.

During an inspection tour of the facility on Monday, the NNPCL Group Chief Executive Officer, Mele Kyari, explained that the inspection aimed to show Nigerians the level of work completed so far.

During a tour with NMDPRA CEO Farouk Ahmed and NNPC Board Chairman Pius Akinyelure, Kyari said that while facility repairs were not yet 100% complete, refining operations had begun and would produce straight-run kerosene, diesel and naphtha.

In a statement commemorating the milestone, President Bola Tinubu stated the plant is functioning at 60% or 75,000 barrels per day.

Kyari said, “We are taking you through our plant. This plant is running. Although it is not 100 per cent complete, we are still in the process. Many people think these things are not real. They think real things are not possible in this country. We want you to see that this is real.”

Since some of these goods would be shipped to foreign markets, he said, the reopening of the Warri refinery will help the country become a net exporter of petroleum products.

“Secondly, this plant had three stages; we have started plant one, which we call Area One. It can produce AGO (diesel), kerosene, naphtha, and a blend of crude oil. These are high-grade quality products required in the country, and we may need to export them. So this will give us cash, this company will make money and the promise of Mr President that this country must be a net exporter of petroleum products is already happening. Some of these products will go into the international market.

“Most importantly, I must put on record that Mr President believes that we can get this to work and get them to start and gave us the charge that we must start all three refineries. It’s already happening; we have started the 60,000 barrels per day refinery, and Area One of the Warri refinery is already working. Other plants that would produce PMS are being streamed and they would also come alive.

Mustapha Zarma, the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria’s National Operations Controller, stated that the rivalry in the downstream oil industry will become more fierce.

There will undoubtedly be a further decrease in pricing if the plant begins producing goods in bulk, he stated. This is because the market will ultimately be influenced by market forces and there will be fierce rivalry.

Until recently, none of Nigeria’s publicly owned refineries has worked to capacity for years, despite several investments to revive them. The failure of the government to revive them contributed to the high level of national anticipation surrounding the Dangote refinery whose operations appear to have revolutionalised the industry.

The refinery will concentrate on manufacturing and storing essential goods, such as heavy and light naphtha, automotive petrol oil and straight-run kerosene.

The country’s first fully owned refinery, the WRPC, was put into service in 1978 and is situated in Warri, Delta State, Nigeria. It was first built to process 100,000 barrels of crude oil a day, but in 1987 it was updated to process 125,000 barrels.

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Kenya: Consumer inflation rises to 3.0% from 2.8%

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Kenya’s statistics agency said on Tuesday that Kenya’s consumer price inflation increased slightly to 3.0% year-over-year in December from 2.8% the previous month.

According to a release from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, monthly inflation was 0.6%, down from 0.3% in November. Kenya aims to have a medium-term inflation rate of 2.5% to 7.5%.

With inflation under control, Kenya’s central bank said there was an opportunity for looser policy to assist economic development, lowering its benchmark lending rate by a larger-than-expected 75 basis points to 11.25% on December 5.

 

Kenya’s GDP expanded by 5.2% in 2023, up from 4.8% in 2022, thanks to a recovery in agriculture and a modest increase in services. Household consumption accounted for 70% of the growth on the demand side, while services and agriculture accounted for 69% and 23% of the growth, respectively, on the supply side.

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