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Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso forge new alliance as chances dim on rejoining ECOWAS

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Three West African nations under military rule—Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso—signed a confederation treaty on Saturday, demonstrating their will to forge on together outside of the regional political and economic bloc that has been pressuring them to revert to democratic governance.

The agreement, which occurred during the Alliance of Sahel States’ (AES) inaugural meeting, represents a closer alignment of the neighbours in the central Sahel region, which is riven by insurgency. In the three states between 2020 and 2023, juntas overthrew their governments through a series of coups and broke diplomatic and military ties with Western nations and regional allies.

The AES meeting was referred to be “the culmination of our determined common will to reclaim our national sovereignty” by General Abdourahamane Tiani, the head of Niger’s military.

The formalization of the confederation treaty validates Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso’s rejection of the 15-member Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). Its signature coincides with ECOWAS’s summit, which aims to convince the three to rethink their January decision to leave the union.

“Our peoples have irrevocably turned their backs on ECOWAS,” Tiani said in a speech. “It is up to us today to make the AES Confederation an alternative to any artificial regional group by building … a community free from the control of foreign powers.”

As it fights to limit a ten-year war with Islamist rebels and develop economies that are among the world’s poorest, it is unclear how closely the AES will coordinate political, economic, and defence objectives.

The three nations decided to form a combined force in March to address security challenges on their borders. The nations stated in a statement following the summit that they had decided to coordinate diplomatic efforts, establish an AES investment bank and stabilization fund, and combine their resources to launch initiatives in vital industries like mining, energy, and agriculture.

The heads of state “welcomed their irrevocable withdrawal without delay from ECOWAS,” it said.

ECOWAS has endeavoured diplomatically to discourage the trio of nations from abandoning the half-century-old relationship. Decades of regional integration will be reversed by the split, which also poses a risk of a messy detachment from trade and services flows worth around $150 billion annually.

The ECOWAS’s decision to impose harsh sanctions in response to the three coups and its unfulfilled threat to deploy force to restore constitutional government in Niger last year are linked to the falling out.

The regional group is under fire from Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso for allegedly betraying its core principles and providing insufficient backing to counter Islamist insurgencies that have resulted in thousands of fatalities and forced over 3 million more to from their homes.

The three governments are cultivating stronger defence, diplomatic, and commercial connections with Russia at the expense of former colonial power France, regional heavyweight Nigeria, and the United governments. These policy changes are the result of the juntas’ policies in the central Sahel.

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Politics

Mozambique’s top court affirms governing party’s victory in recent election

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The highest court in Mozambique affirmed Monday that the incumbent Frelimo party won the October election, sparking widespread demonstrations from opposition parties who claim the vote was manipulated.

Fears of fresh bloodshed have been raised in the nation already shaken by weeks of fatal protests after Mozambique’s top electoral court mostly confirmed the results of the country’s contentious October elections, reinforcing the Frelimo party’s decades-long hold on power.

The final decision on the election process rests with the Constitutional Council. Mozambique, a nation of over 35 million people in Southern Africa that Frelimo has ruled since 1975, is expected to see more protests in response to its judgement.

Mozambique operates a framework of a semi-presidential representative democratic republic in a multi-party system. The president of Mozambique serves as both the head of state and the head of government.

The government exercises executive power. The administration and the Assembly of the Republic have the authority to enact laws.

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Alliance of Sahel States opposes ECOWAS disengagement schedule

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The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) withdrawal timeline has been rejected by the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), which is made up of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger.

The AES claims that the ECOWAS is attempting to destabilise their newly formed organisation.

During a meeting last week in Abuja, Nigeria, the regional organisation announced a six-month withdrawal period to give the three nations time to change their minds after their official departure date at the end of January 2025.

However, this decision is “nothing more than yet another attempt by the French and its auxiliaries to continue planning and carrying out destabilising actions against the AES,” according to the heads of state of the AES.

“This unilateral decision is not binding on the ESA countries,” the statement continues. Before the conference, they stated that their choice to leave the organisation was “irreversible.”

According to the president of the Ecowas Commission, this will be a “transition period” that ends on “July 29, 2025” to “keep the doors of Ecowas open.”

The three nations accused the bloc of neglecting to assist them in resolving their domestic security challenges and of imposing “inhumane and irresponsible” sanctions related to the coup.

The three nations that were involved in the coup have mostly rejected ECOWAS’ attempts to undo their withdrawal. They are creating their alliance and have begun thinking about how to issue travel passports independently of ECOWAS.

It is anticipated that they will finish giving their one-year notice of departure in January.

Visa-free travel to other ECOWAS members is a significant perk of membership, and it is unclear how this would alter after the three nations exit the group.

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