Musings From Abroad

IMF lowers Botswana’s growth projection for 2024

Published

6 months ago

July 13, 2024

In a statement, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reduced its earlier April estimate of 3.6% growth for Botswana to 1%, primarily because of decreased diamond production.

In addition, the IMF warned that a decline in mineral income would cause the budget deficit to balloon to 6% from 3.45% and urged the diamond-rich nation in southern Africa to think twice before embarking on new infrastructure projects to support the economy.

“The continued (economic) slowdown is mainly due to a fall in diamond production,” said IMF said in a statement released late on Friday.

“Some fiscal relaxation is warranted this year given the fall in mineral revenues, but the execution of the ambitious capital budget should be slowed down to contain the deterioration of the deficit and prioritize projects with the highest returns,” the IMF said.

The demand prognosis for diamonds, which are typically regarded as luxury goods, has decreased due to weaker consumer demand and a weakening in the global economy.

Finance Minister Peggy Serame predicted in February that the economy would expand by 4.2%, but a few months later the central bank issued a warning, stating that the ongoing challenges in the world diamond market made it doubtful that this goal would be met.

Diamond sales account for 30–40% of Botswana’s total revenue and 75% of its foreign exchange profits.

Musings From Abroad

World Bank doubts Ethiopia-IMF debt assessment

Published

2 days ago

December 24, 2024

Ifeoluwa Dada

Some officials of the World Bank have questioned if the study supporting Ethiopia’s debt restructuring may be “faulty” after criticising an evaluation of the country’s finances done with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

World Bank consultant, Brian Pinto, and its head economist, Indermit Gill, evaluated the July Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA), which was created by the IMF and employees of the International Development Association (IDA), the World Bank’s fund for the world’s poorest countries, in an internal document seen by Reuters.

According to the authors, Ethiopia is experiencing a short-term cash shortage rather than a long-term solvency problem, which is a source of conflict between the government and holders of its $1 billion international bond that is in default, based on the DSA.

“We found that the bondholders have interpreted the DSA correctly, but the DSA itself may be faulty,” Pinto and Gill wrote in the paper from earlier this month. “The disagreements about Ethiopia’s debt sustainability will be repeated as other countries become debt distressed.”

A World Bank representative responded to a question regarding the paper by saying, “We generally don’t comment on internal deliberations between the World Bank and the IMF or any of our partner institutions.”

As part of the most recent review of the Fund’s loan program, Ethiopian State Finance Minister Eyob Tekalign told Reuters that the DSA had just been reviewed by IMF and World Bank teams and that the status had not changed significantly.

Without providing further details, an IMF representative acknowledged that its officials travelled to Ethiopia in November for the second review of the Fund’s loan program and added that every review incorporates an update to the DSA. Regarding the memo, the spokeswoman remained silent.

A request for comment from Pinto and Gill was not answered. There has been a tense confrontation between Ethiopian officials and bondholders.

The main point of contention is whether, as bondholders contend, Ethiopia is experiencing a liquidity shortage that may be resolved by rescheduling debt or if it is experiencing longer-term financial issues that necessitate haircuts, or debt write-downs.

According to the DSA, certain statistics on exports indicated pressures on both liquidity and solvency.

It was reported in October that the DSA indicated a solvency problem and that writedowns were inevitable. Investors have criticised a government proposal that suggests an 18% haircut in addition to rejecting the evaluation.

Musings From Abroad

Swiss company Mercuria partners Zambia’s IDC in new metals trading firm

Published

5 days ago

December 21, 2024

Ifeoluwa Dada

According to a statement released by Swiss commodities trader, Mercuria, on Thursday, it has established a metals trading arm with Zambia, the second-largest producer of copper in Africa.

The trading unit is jointly owned by Mercuria and an arm of Zambia’s Industrial Development Company (IDC), and its purpose is to allow Zambia to engage directly in the minerals trading market.

The joint venture “envisages the establishment of a vehicle to market and trade Zambian copper by mutual leverage,” according to a statement from Cornwell Muleya, the CEO of IDC.

The southern African nation wants to increase copper output to roughly 3 million metric tonnes within the next ten years, and in 2023, it produced roughly 698,000 tonnes of copper, down from 763,000 metric tonnes the year before.

In June, the Zambian government announced that it would establish a minerals trading unit.

Investors including First Quantum Minerals and Barrick Gold are ramping up production, with output set to receive a further boost once Vedanta Resources’ Konkola Copper Mines restart activity.

“Our joint venture with IDC marks a significant milestone for Zambia as it positions itself more strategically in the global minerals market,” Kostas Bintas, Mercuria’s global head of metals and minerals, said in the statement.