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Ethiopia’s birr falls 30% as central bank starts currency float

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Ethiopia’s central bank on Monday floated the country’s currency, the birr, in an attempt to resolve the long-delayed debt restructuring deal.

The largest lender in the nation, Commercial Bank of Ethiopia, said that the value of the birr fell by 30% versus the US dollar to 74.73 per dollar. On Friday, the exchange rate was 57.48 birr to the US dollar.

Late last year, the country in the Horn of Africa—which has been dealing with extreme inflation and ongoing shortages of foreign currency—became the third economy on the continent to default on its public debt in as many years.

It has been in discussions with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to create a new credit program, as the last one that was agreed upon in 2019 and sponsored by the fund was cancelled because of fighting in Tigray’s northern province.

Statements on the float from the central bank stated that “banks are henceforth allowed to buy and sell foreign currencies from/to their clients and among themselves at freely negotiated rates” and that it will only be making “limited interventions” in the FX markets going ahead.

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed first unveiled the measures late on Sunday.

In a video posted online, Governor Mamo Mihretu of the central bank said that Ethiopia would receive $10.7 billion in external finance assistance from the World Bank, IMF, and other creditors as part of the reforms.

“The IMF and World Bank are both providing exceptional and front-loaded funding support that will be among their highest such allocations in the African continent,” he said.
Importers, who had been relying on the black market to secure dollars, expressed relief at the central bank’s move.

“Now I don’t need to go to the black market to buy or sell dollars. It is now a market-based foreign exchange regime, so (we) will buy or sell based on the legal channels,” said a businessman in Addis Ababa, the capital, who wished to remain anonymous.

The IMF did not immediately provide a statement. Monday saw a slight decline in Ethiopia’s primary $1 billion government bond, which had recently rallied to its highest point since early 2022.

The transition to a foreign exchange rate set by the market was welcomed by the US.

“Market-based FX is a difficult, but necessary step for Ethiopia to address macroeconomic distortions,” the United States embassy in Addis Ababa posted on social media platform X.

The civil conflict in Tigray halted progress in Ethiopia’s request for a debt restructure under the Group of 20’s Common Framework procedure in early 2021. Ethiopia is the second most populous country in Africa.

A new IMF reform program is reportedly tied to the economic reforms the administration has already disclosed, including the adoption of an interest rate-based monetary policy earlier this month, according to analysts.

 

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Nigeria: Marketers predict further price cut as another refinery begins operations

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Oil marketers and the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority expect refined petroleum product prices to reduce as another public refinery in Warri begins operations.

The marketers made the prediction when the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited launched the 125,000-barrel-per-day Delta State WRPC. NNPCL also wants to export locally refined goods for foreign cash. Last month, the 60,000-barrel-per-day Port Harcourt Refinery in Rivers State began operations.

During an inspection tour of the facility on Monday, the NNPCL Group Chief Executive Officer, Mele Kyari, explained that the inspection aimed to show Nigerians the level of work completed so far.

During a tour with NMDPRA CEO Farouk Ahmed and NNPC Board Chairman Pius Akinyelure, Kyari said that while facility repairs were not yet 100% complete, refining operations had begun and would produce straight-run kerosene, diesel and naphtha.

In a statement commemorating the milestone, President Bola Tinubu stated the plant is functioning at 60% or 75,000 barrels per day.

Kyari said, “We are taking you through our plant. This plant is running. Although it is not 100 per cent complete, we are still in the process. Many people think these things are not real. They think real things are not possible in this country. We want you to see that this is real.”

Since some of these goods would be shipped to foreign markets, he said, the reopening of the Warri refinery will help the country become a net exporter of petroleum products.

“Secondly, this plant had three stages; we have started plant one, which we call Area One. It can produce AGO (diesel), kerosene, naphtha, and a blend of crude oil. These are high-grade quality products required in the country, and we may need to export them. So this will give us cash, this company will make money and the promise of Mr President that this country must be a net exporter of petroleum products is already happening. Some of these products will go into the international market.

“Most importantly, I must put on record that Mr President believes that we can get this to work and get them to start and gave us the charge that we must start all three refineries. It’s already happening; we have started the 60,000 barrels per day refinery, and Area One of the Warri refinery is already working. Other plants that would produce PMS are being streamed and they would also come alive.

Mustapha Zarma, the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria’s National Operations Controller, stated that the rivalry in the downstream oil industry will become more fierce.

There will undoubtedly be a further decrease in pricing if the plant begins producing goods in bulk, he stated. This is because the market will ultimately be influenced by market forces and there will be fierce rivalry.

Until recently, none of Nigeria’s publicly owned refineries has worked to capacity for years, despite several investments to revive them. The failure of the government to revive them contributed to the high level of national anticipation surrounding the Dangote refinery whose operations appear to have revolutionalised the industry.

The refinery will concentrate on manufacturing and storing essential goods, such as heavy and light naphtha, automotive petrol oil and straight-run kerosene.

The country’s first fully owned refinery, the WRPC, was put into service in 1978 and is situated in Warri, Delta State, Nigeria. It was first built to process 100,000 barrels of crude oil a day, but in 1987 it was updated to process 125,000 barrels.

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Kenya: Consumer inflation rises to 3.0% from 2.8%

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Kenya’s statistics agency said on Tuesday that Kenya’s consumer price inflation increased slightly to 3.0% year-over-year in December from 2.8% the previous month.

According to a release from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, monthly inflation was 0.6%, down from 0.3% in November. Kenya aims to have a medium-term inflation rate of 2.5% to 7.5%.

With inflation under control, Kenya’s central bank said there was an opportunity for looser policy to assist economic development, lowering its benchmark lending rate by a larger-than-expected 75 basis points to 11.25% on December 5.

 

Kenya’s GDP expanded by 5.2% in 2023, up from 4.8% in 2022, thanks to a recovery in agriculture and a modest increase in services. Household consumption accounted for 70% of the growth on the demand side, while services and agriculture accounted for 69% and 23% of the growth, respectively, on the supply side.

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