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Nigeria’s inflation increases to a record 28-year high in May

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According to official figures released on Saturday, Nigeria’s annual inflation reached a record 28-year high of 33.95% in May, exacerbating the hardships that have stoked popular ire against President Bola Tinubu’s economic reforms.

Inflation increased for the eighteenth consecutive month, up from 33.69% in the previous month.

Tinubu’s measures, which primarily cut energy and gasoline subsidies and devalued the naira twice in a single year, have increased price pressure.
Labour unions, who asked for a new minimum wage through an industrial strike that was called off after two days, have maintained that the reforms disproportionately affect the poor and have left millions of people facing the biggest cost-of-living crisis in decades.

The National Bureau of Statistics data indicated that in May, food and non-alcoholic beverages remained the main drivers of inflation.

The majority of Nigeria’s inflation was driven up by food prices, which increased to 40.66% from 40.53% in the previous month. Analysts say the major causes of Nigeria’s inflation are rising food prices and a declining value of the naira.

The report read, “In May 2024, the headline inflation rate increased to 33.95% relative to the April 2024 headline inflation rate which was 33.69 per cent. Looking at the movement, the May 2024 headline inflation rate showed an increase of 0.26 per cent compared to the April 2024 headline inflation rate.

“On a year-on-year basis, the headline inflation rate was 11.54 per cent points higher compared to the rate recorded in May 2023, which was 22.41 per cent. This shows that the headline inflation rate (year-on-year basis) increased in May 2024 when compared to the same month in the preceding year (i.e., May 2023).

For the third time this year, the central bank increased interest rates in May in reaction to the ongoing increase in inflation. Rates will remain high for as long as it takes to reduce inflation, according to Governor Olayemi Cardoso.

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IMF grants nearly $900 million to boost Tanzania’s budget

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In addition to concluding an additional inquiry permitting the transfer of $149.4 million for budget support, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Saturday that its executive board had approved funding for Tanzania totalling $786.2 million to address climate change.

The IMF stated in a statement that Tanzanian authorities are dedicated to carrying out reforms to maintain macro-financial stability, bolster economic recovery, and foster sustainable and inclusive growth.

The administration of President Samia Suluhu Hassan has implemented several economic reforms over the past three years to bring the nation’s real gross domestic product growth rate back to the 6% to 7% range seen before the pandemic.

The multilateral body noted that Tanzania’s economic reform program was still robust and that the country’s economy expanded again in 2023 after contracting in 2022.

“The current account deficit is narrowing, reflecting fiscal consolidation, easing commodity prices, and tight external financing conditions,” the IMF said.

Although the economy is predicted to continue to recover, the IMF stated that there were obstacles due to an “unfavourable global economic environment.”

According to the World Bank, Tanzania’s economy—which is based on tourism, mining, agriculture, and manufacturing—has persevered in the face of repeated catastrophic weather events and climate change because of a growth in the services sector.

As of last week, Kitila Mkumbo, the minister of state in the president’s Office for Planning and Investment, predicted that the economy will accelerate to 5.4% this calendar year from 5.1% in 2023.

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Sources reveal Ghana, bondholders reach agreement for $13bn debt restructuring

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Following a deal struck with official creditors earlier this month, Ghana has secured an agreement in principle with its bondholders for the restructuring of $13 billion in foreign debt, according to three sources quoted by Reuters.

According to two of the sources, bondholders will get a haircut on the principal of up to 37% as part of the transaction, and the bonds’ term will be extended. Under the weight of the COVID-19 pandemic, the conflict in Ukraine, rising global interest rates, and soaring debt, the West African country that produced gold and cocoa went into default on the majority of its $30 billion in foreign debt in 2022.

Ghana, like Zambia, enrolled in the G20 Common Framework’s debt treatment program. This program’s objectives are to speed up debt restructurings and include China, the newest significant bilateral lender, in the process. After Zambia, the first African nation to default during the pandemic became the first copper producer in southern Africa, its bondholders approved the restructuring earlier this month.

“Things are pretty close” for Ghana. A source who wished to remain anonymous stated, “We can anticipate an announcement by next week, as they were not authorized to speak to the media.”

According to the other two sources, the news might be released as early as this Friday. Due to the late hour, it was not possible to quickly reach the Paris Club, an alliance of creditor nations, or Ghana’s finance ministry for comment.

In mid-March, Ghana initiated formal negotiations with two groups of bondholders: one comprising regional African banks and another of Western asset managers and hedge funds.

However, the proposed agreement did not satisfy the requirements of the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) debt sustainability analysis, causing the negotiations to break down in April and forcing both parties to reorganize to come up with a workable solution.

According to the three individuals, the agreement in principle was reached because it later aligned with an updated IMF debt framework on Ghana that was previously disclosed to bondholders.

The second-largest cocoa producer in the world signed an agreement with its official creditor committee earlier this month to formalize a debt restructuring agreement that was negotiated in January.

The agreement’s broad contours made it possible for the IMF executive board to convene on June 28 in Ghana to discuss a second assessment of the country’s $3 billion loan, a three-year package, and the release of the subsequent $360 million tranche.

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