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Nigeria: Petrol prices could fall to N300/litre with local refining— Report

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The operators of modular refineries in Nigeria claimed on Sunday that when the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and other indigenous producers begin huge output, the pump price of Premium Motor Spirit, also known as petrol, could drop to roughly N300/litre.

They emphasized that foreign refineries were taking advantage of Nigeria, but they also pointed out that this would only be possible if the government made sure that local refiners had access to enough crude oil.

Speaking on behalf of the Crude Oil Refinery Owners Association of Nigeria, they clarified that whenever gasoline is produced in large quantities in Nigeria, it will affect petrol prices in the same way that it did for diesel once Dangote began producing it.

Nigerian modular and conventional refinery firms are recognized as members of CORAN.

“A lot of companies today benefit from the importation of petroleum products at the expense of Nigerians,” the Publicity Secretary, CORAN, Eche Idoko, stated.

“If we begin to produce PMS today in large volumes, I can assure you that we should be able to buy PMS at N300/litre as the pump price, provided there is adequate crude oil supply,” he said to our correspondent.

“Why make Nigerians buy it at almost N700/litre when you know that if you allow refineries to work the price will come down? Is it because you want to satisfy the global refiners abroad that are making so much from us?”

The CORAN official argued that gasoline prices would skyrocket once it is manufactured in large quantities by domestic refiners, despite concerns that such a price decrease is not feasible because crude oil, the basic material for PMS, is priced in dollars.

He said, “We were selling diesel for N1,700 to N1,800/litre, but as soon as Dangote refinery started production he brought down the price to N1,200/litre. What other proofs do you need?

There is every indication that diesel prices will continue to decline before December as I speak to you. Our exchange rate is the only factor keeping diesel prices above N1,000 per litre.

“If the exchange rate drops, diesel will drop below the N1,000/litre price. Now the exchange rate concern is because Dangote imports crude. If he is not importing, the exchange rate may not have so much effect, though he is still buying crude in dollars (in Nigeria) anyway.”

According to The PUNCH on May 18, 2024, Aliko Dangote, the richest man in Africa, announced that Nigeria would no longer require gasoline imports as of June of this year, under the Dangote refinery’s established plans.

Additionally, Dangote has claimed that his refinery could supply all of West Africa’s demands for gasoline and diesel, as well as aviation fuel. Speaking at the Africa CEO Forum Annual Summit in Kigali, he expressed hope for changing the continent’s energy situation.

“Right now, Nigeria has no cause to import anything apart from gasoline (petrol) and by sometime in June, within the next four or five weeks, Nigeria shouldn’t import anything like gasoline; not one drop of a litre,” the billionaire had declared.

Nigeria has experienced a decline in crude oil production in recent years as a result of rising crude oil theft incidents, the departure of oil majors from the nation, and heightened unrest in the Niger Delta.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) was forced to lower its 2024 production allotment due to Nigeria’s recent inability to meet its 1.75 mbpd OPEC output quota for 2023.

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Nigeria: Marketers predict further price cut as another refinery begins operations

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Oil marketers and the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority expect refined petroleum product prices to reduce as another public refinery in Warri begins operations.

The marketers made the prediction when the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited launched the 125,000-barrel-per-day Delta State WRPC. NNPCL also wants to export locally refined goods for foreign cash. Last month, the 60,000-barrel-per-day Port Harcourt Refinery in Rivers State began operations.

During an inspection tour of the facility on Monday, the NNPCL Group Chief Executive Officer, Mele Kyari, explained that the inspection aimed to show Nigerians the level of work completed so far.

During a tour with NMDPRA CEO Farouk Ahmed and NNPC Board Chairman Pius Akinyelure, Kyari said that while facility repairs were not yet 100% complete, refining operations had begun and would produce straight-run kerosene, diesel and naphtha.

In a statement commemorating the milestone, President Bola Tinubu stated the plant is functioning at 60% or 75,000 barrels per day.

Kyari said, “We are taking you through our plant. This plant is running. Although it is not 100 per cent complete, we are still in the process. Many people think these things are not real. They think real things are not possible in this country. We want you to see that this is real.”

Since some of these goods would be shipped to foreign markets, he said, the reopening of the Warri refinery will help the country become a net exporter of petroleum products.

“Secondly, this plant had three stages; we have started plant one, which we call Area One. It can produce AGO (diesel), kerosene, naphtha, and a blend of crude oil. These are high-grade quality products required in the country, and we may need to export them. So this will give us cash, this company will make money and the promise of Mr President that this country must be a net exporter of petroleum products is already happening. Some of these products will go into the international market.

“Most importantly, I must put on record that Mr President believes that we can get this to work and get them to start and gave us the charge that we must start all three refineries. It’s already happening; we have started the 60,000 barrels per day refinery, and Area One of the Warri refinery is already working. Other plants that would produce PMS are being streamed and they would also come alive.

Mustapha Zarma, the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria’s National Operations Controller, stated that the rivalry in the downstream oil industry will become more fierce.

There will undoubtedly be a further decrease in pricing if the plant begins producing goods in bulk, he stated. This is because the market will ultimately be influenced by market forces and there will be fierce rivalry.

Until recently, none of Nigeria’s publicly owned refineries has worked to capacity for years, despite several investments to revive them. The failure of the government to revive them contributed to the high level of national anticipation surrounding the Dangote refinery whose operations appear to have revolutionalised the industry.

The refinery will concentrate on manufacturing and storing essential goods, such as heavy and light naphtha, automotive petrol oil and straight-run kerosene.

The country’s first fully owned refinery, the WRPC, was put into service in 1978 and is situated in Warri, Delta State, Nigeria. It was first built to process 100,000 barrels of crude oil a day, but in 1987 it was updated to process 125,000 barrels.

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Kenya: Consumer inflation rises to 3.0% from 2.8%

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Kenya’s statistics agency said on Tuesday that Kenya’s consumer price inflation increased slightly to 3.0% year-over-year in December from 2.8% the previous month.

According to a release from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, monthly inflation was 0.6%, down from 0.3% in November. Kenya aims to have a medium-term inflation rate of 2.5% to 7.5%.

With inflation under control, Kenya’s central bank said there was an opportunity for looser policy to assist economic development, lowering its benchmark lending rate by a larger-than-expected 75 basis points to 11.25% on December 5.

 

Kenya’s GDP expanded by 5.2% in 2023, up from 4.8% in 2022, thanks to a recovery in agriculture and a modest increase in services. Household consumption accounted for 70% of the growth on the demand side, while services and agriculture accounted for 69% and 23% of the growth, respectively, on the supply side.

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