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Bad Bill aside, Kenya could still push Africa’s economic integration, By Joachim Buwembo

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When Kenya’s President William Ruto returned from a state visit to the United States last month, there was a lottery winner’s spring in his steps as the basket of financial goodies he brought home seemed big enough to silence those criticising his frequent foreign trips as being too costly for his debt-riddled economy.

The jewel of the offers he secured from the Americans was a $3.6 billion loan to construct a 440km superhighway (at $8.2 million/km) linking Mombasa to Nairobi.

As happens with such announcements, inconvenient words like “loan”and “debt” are avoided, and absent-minded listeners can think that a loving Uncle Joe (Biden) just gave the $3.6 billion to Nephew Bill (Ruto) to sort out some pressing problems.

But the tech-savvy Kenyan Generation Z, who can access big finance info in the palm of their hand are not absent-minded.

For, while it is true Nephew Bill had pressing problems — the battered Kenya shilling making debt servicing particularly more expensive, as more local currency was required to buy dollars to service foreign loans than previously — adding billions of dollars to the foreign debt stock didn’t look like a good idea. And the $3.6 billion from the US curiously equalled the $3.6 billion that built a railway parallel to which the highway connecting the same two destinations recently funded by, er… China.

The Finance Bill 2024, for operationalising the budget, suddenly became the worst word in Kenya’s public dictionary. And why, of all the five presidents Kenya has had, did the harsh Bill have to come under President Bill? The Finance Bill is supposed to be an annual affair and this time the pun of being Bill’s Bill is not funny at all, for a lot of blood has been spilled over it.

But as Gen Z upped their demands for Bill to go with his Bill even after he conceded and set it aside, their understandable anger may make it hard for the two sides — protesters and president — to see the hand of external powers standing to gain from the chaos.

The president might instinctively see only local opponents in the picture, though it is hard to believe that His Excellency’s excellent intelligence services haven’t pointed at the foreign forces, who even we mentioned on this very page recently by quoting an American saying often attributed to (their second) President John Adams thus: “There are two ways to conquer and enslave a nation — one is by sword, the other is by debt.”

President Ruto started off as a beacon of hope to Africa’s economic unity, pouring new energy in the African Continental Free Trade Area. He has been going the extra mile to promote the single African market to use local currencies and adopt develop a common unit of account.

To push out or retain Ruto is for Kenyans in their sovereign state. But Africa will still, and for long, need a Kenyan leadership that is alive to the urgency to integrate African economies, which are right now prone to extortion by foreign powers using the tool called debt. As each economically weak African republic separately goes to foreign lenders to sip from their poisoned chalice, chances of pulling and pooling together become dimmer.

God or Fate endowed Africa with a huge land mass which can not only produce biofuels for clean aviation but also contains massive, rare earth mineral deposits required to transition the world’s transport from fossil fuel to clean electric energy. The need for these minerals is now an emergency. Africa can either coordinate their processing or they will be collected “free” like others before.

Pause and ask yourself if DR Congo’s obvious disinterest in the East African Community, which it joined two years ago, is just an oversight. Curiously, two years ago, Ruto took office and injected enthusiasm into the AfCFTA, plus Africa’s playing its role in the climate change fight, and DRC’s interest in EAC started dipping. However, Dr Ruto’s looking at external powers to finance these processes may not augur well for the continent’s independence.

Yet Kenya’s lead in matters of ICT and finance can be leveraged to re-imagine a new Africa that can re-organise its capabilities and potential for meaningful development without courting conquest and enslavement, which debt will certainly achieve sooner than later.

The breakdown of law and order can accelerate the conquest. Africans might even desperately call in the “superior” external forces to help restore order, which will come at the cost of independence.

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Strictly Personal

Tax protests: The wolf in sheepskin bares his claws, By Tee Ngugi

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On Tuesday of June 18, young Kenyans poured into the streets of Nairobi in huge numbers to protest the high cost of living and punitive taxes imposed on various products and services.

The protests were not organised by politicians; the young people used their social media savvy to organise in similar fashion to the demonstrations that sparked the Arab Spring. And just like the Arab Spring demonstrations, young women in their numbers took part in and led the protesters.

If anyone ever needed proof that it is the police who inflict violence on peaceful demonstrators, it was all there, relayed on cell phones and broadcast by mainstream local and international media.

Despite being beaten up, arrested and teargased, the demonstrators did not resort to violence. They did not loot shops or vandalise cars.

The only weapons they carried were placards denouncing the Ruto-Gachagua regime.

One young woman, after defying two burly policemen trying to arrest her, led the crowd in chanting, “People’s power! When we lose our fear, they lose their power!” The woman is small in stature, but her voice echoed far back in history. In her voice, we heard Mary Nyanjiru defying the colonial police order to disperse. In her voice, we also saw in our memory the hundreds of thousands who, on July 7, 1990, flocked to the streets to demand a return to democracy.

The colonial police opened fire, killing Nyanjiru and 20 other people. In similar fashion, the Nyayo police opened fire, killing hundreds of protesters.

Mary Nyanjiru and her group were protesting the arrest of Harry Thuku and other leaders who were incarcerated at the Central Police station.

On Saba Saba Day, hundreds were also arrested and locked up in various stations, including Central Police Station.

It is instructive in a deeply disturbing way that this is the same station where tens of those protesting the Ruto-Gachagua regime were locked up. The Central Police Station has been central in the drama of repression and defiance in Kenya’s history.

A footage circulating on social media shows a group of women seated on the cold cement floor of a jail cell at Central Police Station.

They are not broken by the harsh conditions of their captivity; they sing defiant songs denouncing the police and the wasteful and corrupt regime.

Some of the taxes proposed in the Finance Bill 2024 are just absurd. Instead of incentivising small businesses that suffered greatly during Covid, the regime proposed taxes that would impact them.

The proposed taxes on bread, sanitary pads and diapers, cooking oil and mobile transactions show a regime that is totally out of touch with reality. Perhaps if they stayed in the country long enough, instead of travelling abroad every other day, they would understand the horrendous conditions poor Kenyans live in.

The regime has since withdrawn some of the ridiculous taxes after weeks of chest thumping. But the wolf in sheep’s clothing has shown its claws.

Tee Ngugi is a Nairobi-based political commentator

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Forecast is not destiny; Africa is on the path to prosperity, By Mohamed Ghazouani

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Across the Global South, young people are yearning for opportunity and a better life. But while 1.2 billion people in developing countries are projected to reach working age over the next decade, only an estimated 420 million jobs will be available to them, leaving nearly 800 million people without a clear path to employment. Even though some of this cohort will continue their education, that would only delay, and possibly prolong, the crisis.

The challenge of insufficient job opportunities will be felt acutely in Africa, where nearly one-third of this generation lives. But forecasts are not destiny. That is why the continent’s future was a central topic at this week’s G7 summit in Apulia, Italy.

The need to focus on Africa’s future is obvious because a world free of poverty on a livable planet will remain an elusive target if the continent cannot harness its abundant potential and create sufficient employment and economic growth. And it is equally clear that a successful strategy for Africa would benefit from the International Development Association, which wields a powerful development tool: affordable financing.

The task is immense because Africa’s challenges are great. Nearly 500 million Africans live in poverty, while conflict, climate change, unsustainable debt burdens, and other crises cast a shadow over the continent’s economic outlook.

But the good news is that there is a path to progress, as evidenced by other countries that have prospered by using IDA’s grants and low-interest loans, embracing good governance, investing in their people, and fostering a business-friendly investment climate. Africa could take a similar path, but it will need the help of organisations like the G7 and others.

We believe a focused strategy that generates jobs while providing the foundational ingredients for development is essential to that journey. In our view, this plan should be anchored in five pillars.

First, we must improve access to electricity, which is a fundamental human right and essential to development. The World Bank Group is working with the African Development Bank to provide electricity to half of the 600 million Africans lacking access to power by 2030, an effort that will require the support of development partners, governments, and private-sector investors to succeed. Fortunately, we are well on our way to building that coalition.

Second, building efficient, high-quality infrastructure is crucial for trade. Moving goods between African countries can be a lengthy and expensive process, because road and rail networks are insufficient, maritime transport is modest, and border wait times are prohibitively long. In a region where 470 million people don’t have reliable year-round transport, investing in physical and digital infrastructure – including cross-border payment systems – will create job opportunities by increasing trade, integration, and financial inclusion.

Third, investment in agribusiness must increase. Only 6% of Africa’s farmland is irrigated, compared to 37% in Asia, and the continent has one of the lowest rates of fertilizer use in the world, leading to yields that are one-third of the global average. With the right fertilizer for the right soil and improved irrigation, Africa’s farmers could boost production, labour demand, and incomes, which could then be used for food, school supplies, and medicine.

For example, an IDA-financed initiative in Mauritania and its neighbouring Sahel countries is helping 390,000 farmers— almost half of them women — irrigate their farmland using affordable technologies.

Fourth, healthcare systems must be strengthened. The World Bank Group aims to help low- and middle-income countries provide healthcare services to 1.5 billion people by 2030 – which would demand skilled jobs. But we must think even bigger because strengthening health infrastructure and pandemic preparedness is essential to development.

Lastly, promoting tourism would create jobs for women, who make up the majority of the sector’s workforce, and accelerate economic growth. But this will depend on improved infrastructure and access to electricity and health care. Moreover, like the other four areas, it also requires a commitment to education and skills development to succeed, built with a digital foundation.

IDA is an essential partner and knowledge source in advancing this agenda. It is the largest provider of financing and the main source of liquidity for many African countries. Last year alone, 75 percent of IDA’s commitments – more than $25 billion — were to Africa, a 24 percent increase over five years. Its financial model turns every donor dollar into nearly four dollars in new resources. And, if successful, proposed measures to simplify IDA would improve access and help countries focus more on developing real solutions for their people.

Simply put, IDA is the best deal in development, as 19 African heads of state recently recognised. It’s also a reminder of what we can accomplish when we join together as partners in progress. With IDA’s support, we can target jobs — and growth-producing sectors, engage the private sector, and help Africa secure the prosperous future it deserves.

Mohamed Ould Ghazouani is the President of Mauritania and Chairperson of the African Union; Ajay Banga is President of the World Bank Group.

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