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Best-to-Worst: Zambian currency hits record low

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A shortage of hard cash and a severe drought that has caused power outages in copper-producing Zambia have made its currency, the kwacha, fall to a record low against the US dollar as of Wednesday, reaching 27.30 to the dollar.

 

Based on LSEG data, the value of the kwacha relative to the US dollar has decreased by over 5% this year and 17% in the last six months. The previous low, on February 6, was 27.23.

 

The latest profile of the Kwacha is an anti-climax from an earlier position this year, in February, following consistent drastic monetary policy interventions by its central bank, Zambia’s currency became Africa’s best-performing currency against the US dollar.

 

 

This year, the US dollar index, which measures the value of the dollar relative to a basket of currencies, has increased by 4% to 105.58. However, the MSCI International Emerging Market Currency Index, which opens in a new tab, has only declined by 1%, indicating that the kwacha is not keeping up with the currencies of larger emerging nations.

 

The southern African country went into default in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Its attempts to restructure its debt have been plagued by delays, but in March they made progress when the government and a group of bondholders agreed in principle.

 

“There is too much demand for dollars, mainly to meet imports of petroleum products and we have very scanty supply. It appears we are heading towards 30 per dollar,” a trader at a commercial bank in Zambia said.

 

Global monetary tightening cycle caused serious problems for African currencies in 2023. The official currency rates for the Nigerian naira, Kenyan shilling, and South African rand saw considerable swings in December 2023, with an average decline of 27% from 25% in November.

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Kenya seeks $750m from World Bank, obtains $200m from AfDB— Official

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The head of debt management for the finance ministry told Reuters that Kenya had obtained a $200 million loan from the African Development Bank (AfDB) and was negotiating a fresh $750 million loan with the World Bank.

After being forced to abandon proposed tax rises costing more than 346 billion shillings ($2.68 billion) in June due to fatal demonstrations, the East African nation’s administration, which has been grappling with significant debt, has been frantically seeking fresh funding.

The Finance Ministry’s public debt management office director general, Raphael Owino, told Reuters that the IMF’s October clearance of the seventh and eighth reviews, which opened the door for a $606 million loan tranche, had aided the ministry’s talks for more loans.

“The World Bank is coming on board, riding on the back of IMF receipts,” Owino said. “The AfDB is already on board.”

The discussions for more assistance, which came under the World Bank’s “Development Policy Operations” (DPO) with the government, were confirmed by a representative at the organization’s Kenya office.

“The amount of the current (loan) is yet to be determined. The amount will also depend on the implementation of the policy reforms agreed upon,” the spokesperson told Reuters, adding that past DPO loans averaged about $750 million.

In May, the World Bank approved the latest round of DPO loans, totalling $1.2 billion.

According to a statement made last month by Finance Minister John Mbadi, Kenya has set a foreign borrowing goal of 168 billion shillings for the fiscal year ending in June 2025.

 

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Dangote refinery begins petroleum sales to West Africa

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In an indication to traders that the activities of its mega-refinery might soon disrupt regional fuel markets, Nigeria’s private Dangote Petroleum Refinery has started exporting refined petroleum products to neighbouring West African nations.

According to a Bloomberg story on Tuesday, a tanker had transported a consignment of petrol from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery to seas off the coast of Togo, a nearby West African nation. The article cited data from Vortexa, Kpler, Precise Intelligence, a port report, and a ship-tracking tool.

According to the source, a CL Jane Austen recently departed west after loading over 300,000 barrels from Dangote.

Recall that Mustapha Abdul-Hamid, the chairman of the Ghana National Petroleum Authority, stated last month that the nation is thinking of purchasing petroleum products from the Dangote refinery in order to reduce the approximately $400 million it spends each month on more costly exports from Europe.

Speaking at the OTL Africa Downstream Oil Conference in Lagos, the chairman of NPA, Ghana, said that by eliminating freight expenses, buying from Nigeria instead of Europe will lower the cost of other products and services.

“If the refinery reaches 650,000bpd a day capacity, all that volume cannot be consumed by Nigeria alone, so instead of us importing as we do right now from Rotterdam, it will be much easier for us to import from Nigeria and I believe that will bring down our prices,” Hamid said.

Two weeks ago, it was announced that the refinery would start exporting fuel to Namibia, Angola, and South Africa. Four more African nations—Niger Republic, Chad, Burkina Faso, and Central Africa Republic—had also begun talks with the refinery, it was said.

According to a very reliable source who spoke directly to one of our reporters, the management of the refinery with a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day was in the advanced stages of negotiations with the nations to begin lifting petroleum.

“I can confirm to you that talks are actually at the advanced stage with Ghana, Angola, Namibia, and South Africa, while the initial discussion is coming up with Niger, Chad, Burkina Faso, and the Central African Republic,” the source said.

The petroleum product shipment is currently floating off the coast of Lome, which is a well-liked location for ship-to-ship transfers, according to the source.

Furthermore, the final destination of the cargo of the CL Jane Austen is uncertain.

Despite being off Togo, the region is frequently utilised for ship-to-ship transfers, thus the gasoline may eventually be transported elsewhere.

“While the shipment is tiny in the context of the global gasoline market, it signals the ramp-up of Dangote’s production and the potential to export significant volumes of gasoline beyond Nigeria, which could upend regional markets.”

Last month, the refinery sent its first shipment of petrol by sea to Lagos, a neighbouring commercial centre.

Under the regulatory statute, the Federal Government last month terminated the state-owned oil company’s monopoly on purchasing gasoline from the plant for domestic use, but it has permitted the ongoing importation of fuel from the US and Europe.

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