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Nigeria’s central bank insists depleting external reserves not due to Naira defence

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According to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the big drop in the country’s foreign exchange reserves was not due to the defence of the Naira. Instead, it was done to partly pay off debts owed to creditors.

Furthermore, the bank said it wanted to stay out of the market as much as possible, hoping to create an environment where costs are set by willing buyers and sellers.

The CBN governor, Olayemi Cardoso, clarified on Wednesday while the International Monetary Fund and World Bank held their Spring Meetings in Washington, D.C., USA following curiosity around the big drop in the country’s foreign exchange reserves—about $2.16bn in just 29 days—even though the government was working hard to keep the naira stable, underlying important it is to let the market decide prices instead of depending too much on the bank to step in.

The CBN website showed that as of April 15, 2024, the foreign exchange stocks had dropped to $32.29bn, a big drop from March 18, 2024, when they were $34.45bn. Also, the funds grew by $1.28bn over 43 days, from February 5, 2024, to March 18, 2024.

The apex had earlier stated that the rise was due to more money being sent back to Nigeria by Nigerians living abroad and more interest from foreign buyers in local assets, such as government debt securities. The top bank also said that the rise was caused by changes in the foreign exchange market and more oil being produced, among other things.

Cardoso maintained that the bank would not get involved in the exchange unless unusual circumstances arose. He also made it clear that the recent small change in reserves had nothing to do with protecting the naira. He said that there will be an increase soon because the country is getting an extra $600 million into its funds.

He said, “I want to make this as clear as possible, it is not in our intention to defend the naira. and as much I have read in the recent few days, some opinions concerning what is happening with our reserves and if the central bank is defending the naira. If you think about what our overall policy and philosophy has been here, you can see it is counterintuitive.

“What we are encouraging is for the market to be a willing-buyer and willing-seller price discovery system, and ultimately I perceive a future where the central bank would not intervene except in very unusual circumstances. What is important to us is that there is sufficient liquidity in the market. We recorded trading of $1bn, sometimes it is $600m or $700m as the case may be and that will continue. So as long as we have a vibrant currency market, why do we need to intervene? There has been little amount given to the Bureau de Change to get that segment going and a small amount of money has gone into that to catalyse because individuals must have access to funds for school fees, health and the rest.”

Foreign currency shortages in the country have been a problem for a long time for the CBN. That governments, commercial banks, merchant banks, other financial institutions (OFIs), or public officials cannot directly or indirectly own Bureaux de Change (BDCs) was ruled in February.

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Nigeria: Marketers predict further price cut as another refinery begins operations

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Oil marketers and the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority expect refined petroleum product prices to reduce as another public refinery in Warri begins operations.

The marketers made the prediction when the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited launched the 125,000-barrel-per-day Delta State WRPC. NNPCL also wants to export locally refined goods for foreign cash. Last month, the 60,000-barrel-per-day Port Harcourt Refinery in Rivers State began operations.

During an inspection tour of the facility on Monday, the NNPCL Group Chief Executive Officer, Mele Kyari, explained that the inspection aimed to show Nigerians the level of work completed so far.

During a tour with NMDPRA CEO Farouk Ahmed and NNPC Board Chairman Pius Akinyelure, Kyari said that while facility repairs were not yet 100% complete, refining operations had begun and would produce straight-run kerosene, diesel and naphtha.

In a statement commemorating the milestone, President Bola Tinubu stated the plant is functioning at 60% or 75,000 barrels per day.

Kyari said, “We are taking you through our plant. This plant is running. Although it is not 100 per cent complete, we are still in the process. Many people think these things are not real. They think real things are not possible in this country. We want you to see that this is real.”

Since some of these goods would be shipped to foreign markets, he said, the reopening of the Warri refinery will help the country become a net exporter of petroleum products.

“Secondly, this plant had three stages; we have started plant one, which we call Area One. It can produce AGO (diesel), kerosene, naphtha, and a blend of crude oil. These are high-grade quality products required in the country, and we may need to export them. So this will give us cash, this company will make money and the promise of Mr President that this country must be a net exporter of petroleum products is already happening. Some of these products will go into the international market.

“Most importantly, I must put on record that Mr President believes that we can get this to work and get them to start and gave us the charge that we must start all three refineries. It’s already happening; we have started the 60,000 barrels per day refinery, and Area One of the Warri refinery is already working. Other plants that would produce PMS are being streamed and they would also come alive.

Mustapha Zarma, the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria’s National Operations Controller, stated that the rivalry in the downstream oil industry will become more fierce.

There will undoubtedly be a further decrease in pricing if the plant begins producing goods in bulk, he stated. This is because the market will ultimately be influenced by market forces and there will be fierce rivalry.

Until recently, none of Nigeria’s publicly owned refineries has worked to capacity for years, despite several investments to revive them. The failure of the government to revive them contributed to the high level of national anticipation surrounding the Dangote refinery whose operations appear to have revolutionalised the industry.

The refinery will concentrate on manufacturing and storing essential goods, such as heavy and light naphtha, automotive petrol oil and straight-run kerosene.

The country’s first fully owned refinery, the WRPC, was put into service in 1978 and is situated in Warri, Delta State, Nigeria. It was first built to process 100,000 barrels of crude oil a day, but in 1987 it was updated to process 125,000 barrels.

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Kenya: Consumer inflation rises to 3.0% from 2.8%

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Kenya’s statistics agency said on Tuesday that Kenya’s consumer price inflation increased slightly to 3.0% year-over-year in December from 2.8% the previous month.

According to a release from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, monthly inflation was 0.6%, down from 0.3% in November. Kenya aims to have a medium-term inflation rate of 2.5% to 7.5%.

With inflation under control, Kenya’s central bank said there was an opportunity for looser policy to assist economic development, lowering its benchmark lending rate by a larger-than-expected 75 basis points to 11.25% on December 5.

 

Kenya’s GDP expanded by 5.2% in 2023, up from 4.8% in 2022, thanks to a recovery in agriculture and a modest increase in services. Household consumption accounted for 70% of the growth on the demand side, while services and agriculture accounted for 69% and 23% of the growth, respectively, on the supply side.

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