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IMF predicts Kenya’s economy to overtake Angola

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says that this year, Kenya will pass Angola to become the fourth biggest economy in sub-Saharan Africa. South Africa, Nigeria, and Ethiopia will then follow it.

Kenya is expected to stay in that spot until the end of 2029 as its GDP grew from $113.7 billion (Ksh13.37 trillion) in 2022 to $108.9 billion (Ksh15.14 trillion) last year, based on the current exchange rate. Ethiopia’s lead over Kenya has grown, and in two years it will pass Nigeria to become the second-largest economy in the area.

In 2020, Ethiopia’s economy was smaller than Kenya’s but it has continued upward and is expected to have reached $159.74 billion (Sh21.165 trillion) by 2023, making the gap between the two countries even bigger. Also, Ethiopia’s economy is likely to stay in second place for three years, until 2029.

Some people think that Ethiopia’s gross domestic product (GDP), which is the value of all the goods and services made in the country, is higher than it is. The country just got out of a civil war that lasted two years and destroyed its economy. It is one of the African countries that has not paid one of its debts.

According to the African Development Bank, East Africa will continue to grow fastest in Africa. In 2024 and 2025, growth is expected to reach 5.1% and 5.7%, respectively. The expected strong economic performance of countries in the region is reflected in the growth acceleration of 1.6% points from 3.5% in 2023 to 7% in 2024. Seven economies are expected to grow by 5% or more in 2024: Rwanda (7.2%), Ethiopia (6.7%), Djibouti (6.2%), Tanzania (6.1%), Uganda (6%), Burundi (5.8%), and Kenya (5.4%).

Charlie Robertson, who is in charge of macro strategy at investment management firm FIM Partners UK Ltd., called the exchange rate between the pound and the erg a “fantasy exchange rate.”

“Ethiopia is maintaining a hugely overvalued exchange rate which is not supported by reality,” said Robertson in an email response.

The stated exchange rate for the Ethiopian Birr is 57, but the FIM Partners FX model says that it should be about 97% of the dollar. The IMF says that Ethiopia’s economy grew by 7.2% last year, from a base of $118.97 billion to $193.0 billion. This was the fastest GDP growth in sub-Saharan Africa.

Kenya’s economy, on the other hand, grew more slowly, by only 5.5% in 2023. This was because the country’s economy came out of a year marked by drought and tight global financial markets because of the war in Ukraine. This month, Kenya is likely to share its official GDP numbers for 2023.

“But at a realistic exchange rate, [Ethiopia’s] GDP was probably $90 billion. Kenya’s GDP by comparison was $109 billion in 2023. So, if you use the official figure, you’d say Ethiopia’s economy was about 50% bigger than Kenya – but in reality, Kenya’s economy is bigger.”

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VenturesNow

Dangote refinery begins petroleum sales to West Africa

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In an indication to traders that the activities of its mega-refinery might soon disrupt regional fuel markets, Nigeria’s private Dangote Petroleum Refinery has started exporting refined petroleum products to neighbouring West African nations.

According to a Bloomberg story on Tuesday, a tanker had transported a consignment of petrol from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery to seas off the coast of Togo, a nearby West African nation. The article cited data from Vortexa, Kpler, Precise Intelligence, a port report, and a ship-tracking tool.

According to the source, a CL Jane Austen recently departed west after loading over 300,000 barrels from Dangote.

Recall that Mustapha Abdul-Hamid, the chairman of the Ghana National Petroleum Authority, stated last month that the nation is thinking of purchasing petroleum products from the Dangote refinery in order to reduce the approximately $400 million it spends each month on more costly exports from Europe.

Speaking at the OTL Africa Downstream Oil Conference in Lagos, the chairman of NPA, Ghana, said that by eliminating freight expenses, buying from Nigeria instead of Europe will lower the cost of other products and services.

“If the refinery reaches 650,000bpd a day capacity, all that volume cannot be consumed by Nigeria alone, so instead of us importing as we do right now from Rotterdam, it will be much easier for us to import from Nigeria and I believe that will bring down our prices,” Hamid said.

Two weeks ago, it was announced that the refinery would start exporting fuel to Namibia, Angola, and South Africa. Four more African nations—Niger Republic, Chad, Burkina Faso, and Central Africa Republic—had also begun talks with the refinery, it was said.

According to a very reliable source who spoke directly to one of our reporters, the management of the refinery with a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day was in the advanced stages of negotiations with the nations to begin lifting petroleum.

“I can confirm to you that talks are actually at the advanced stage with Ghana, Angola, Namibia, and South Africa, while the initial discussion is coming up with Niger, Chad, Burkina Faso, and the Central African Republic,” the source said.

The petroleum product shipment is currently floating off the coast of Lome, which is a well-liked location for ship-to-ship transfers, according to the source.

Furthermore, the final destination of the cargo of the CL Jane Austen is uncertain.

Despite being off Togo, the region is frequently utilised for ship-to-ship transfers, thus the gasoline may eventually be transported elsewhere.

“While the shipment is tiny in the context of the global gasoline market, it signals the ramp-up of Dangote’s production and the potential to export significant volumes of gasoline beyond Nigeria, which could upend regional markets.”

Last month, the refinery sent its first shipment of petrol by sea to Lagos, a neighbouring commercial centre.

Under the regulatory statute, the Federal Government last month terminated the state-owned oil company’s monopoly on purchasing gasoline from the plant for domestic use, but it has permitted the ongoing importation of fuel from the US and Europe.

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Pension withdrawal hits $2.8 billion after reform

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According to South Africa’s tax department, pension withdrawals have increased to 49.6 billion rand ($2.8 billion) in the 11 weeks after a law that permits partial withdrawals before retirement went into force.

On October 11, the South African Revenue Service said that since the reform on September 1, 21.4 billion rand had been disbursed.

The goal of the “two-pot” pension reform is to encourage long-term retirement savings while providing flexibility to members who are experiencing financial difficulties.

It is anticipated to increase the government’s tax revenue and stimulate economic growth in the latter months of 2024.

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