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Ghana’s bondholders deal ‘a matter of time’— IMF

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It is only “a matter of time” before Ghana and the holders of its foreign bonds agree on a restructuring, IMF’s African Department director, Abebe Selassie, has revealed.

The claim comes after the fund said a previously proposed deal would not work with its rules. “It depends on … how much time and intensity the government is going to be able to devote to (bondholder negotiations) in the coming weeks,” Selassie said in an interview at the IMF Spring Meetings in Washington.

“It’s a matter of time rather than something pretty fundamental blocking it.”

Selassie told a separate news briefing on Friday that Ghana has not yet agreed to a Memorandum of Understanding (Mou) with its official bilateral creditors on a restructuring deal. This is the key to getting more IMF funding.

“We are confident that it’ll happen in the next few weeks. Good progress is being made in the negotiations and drafting. I don’t think there will be dragging,” IMF Mission Chief for Ghana Stephane Roudet told reporters separately.

“(Economic) growth has surprised us to the upside… We will revise growth up in 2024,” he added.
Ghana’s government said earlier this week that it had not been able to come to an agreement with two groups of holders of about $13 billion in foreign bonds on a restructuring plan that would work. They said that talks would continue until they found a deal that met the IMF’s debt-sustainability goals.

The most valuable company in Abu Dhabi has made an offer of more than $1 billion to buy a 51% stake in Vedanta Resources’ copper assets in Zambia, according to two people who know about the situation.

Ghana’s national debt to gross domestic product ratio was expected to decrease by 15 percentage points from 2023 to 2028. This prediction says that the percentage will have gone down for six years in a row, reaching 69.96% in 2028.

Ghana defaulted on most of its foreign debt in December 2022 because the costs of paying it off went up too high. It has since adjusted most of its domestic debt and needs to make a deal with private holders of about $13 billion in international bonds.

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Dangote refinery begins petroleum sales to West Africa

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In an indication to traders that the activities of its mega-refinery might soon disrupt regional fuel markets, Nigeria’s private Dangote Petroleum Refinery has started exporting refined petroleum products to neighbouring West African nations.

According to a Bloomberg story on Tuesday, a tanker had transported a consignment of petrol from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery to seas off the coast of Togo, a nearby West African nation. The article cited data from Vortexa, Kpler, Precise Intelligence, a port report, and a ship-tracking tool.

According to the source, a CL Jane Austen recently departed west after loading over 300,000 barrels from Dangote.

Recall that Mustapha Abdul-Hamid, the chairman of the Ghana National Petroleum Authority, stated last month that the nation is thinking of purchasing petroleum products from the Dangote refinery in order to reduce the approximately $400 million it spends each month on more costly exports from Europe.

Speaking at the OTL Africa Downstream Oil Conference in Lagos, the chairman of NPA, Ghana, said that by eliminating freight expenses, buying from Nigeria instead of Europe will lower the cost of other products and services.

“If the refinery reaches 650,000bpd a day capacity, all that volume cannot be consumed by Nigeria alone, so instead of us importing as we do right now from Rotterdam, it will be much easier for us to import from Nigeria and I believe that will bring down our prices,” Hamid said.

Two weeks ago, it was announced that the refinery would start exporting fuel to Namibia, Angola, and South Africa. Four more African nations—Niger Republic, Chad, Burkina Faso, and Central Africa Republic—had also begun talks with the refinery, it was said.

According to a very reliable source who spoke directly to one of our reporters, the management of the refinery with a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day was in the advanced stages of negotiations with the nations to begin lifting petroleum.

“I can confirm to you that talks are actually at the advanced stage with Ghana, Angola, Namibia, and South Africa, while the initial discussion is coming up with Niger, Chad, Burkina Faso, and the Central African Republic,” the source said.

The petroleum product shipment is currently floating off the coast of Lome, which is a well-liked location for ship-to-ship transfers, according to the source.

Furthermore, the final destination of the cargo of the CL Jane Austen is uncertain.

Despite being off Togo, the region is frequently utilised for ship-to-ship transfers, thus the gasoline may eventually be transported elsewhere.

“While the shipment is tiny in the context of the global gasoline market, it signals the ramp-up of Dangote’s production and the potential to export significant volumes of gasoline beyond Nigeria, which could upend regional markets.”

Last month, the refinery sent its first shipment of petrol by sea to Lagos, a neighbouring commercial centre.

Under the regulatory statute, the Federal Government last month terminated the state-owned oil company’s monopoly on purchasing gasoline from the plant for domestic use, but it has permitted the ongoing importation of fuel from the US and Europe.

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Pension withdrawal hits $2.8 billion after reform

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According to South Africa’s tax department, pension withdrawals have increased to 49.6 billion rand ($2.8 billion) in the 11 weeks after a law that permits partial withdrawals before retirement went into force.

On October 11, the South African Revenue Service said that since the reform on September 1, 21.4 billion rand had been disbursed.

The goal of the “two-pot” pension reform is to encourage long-term retirement savings while providing flexibility to members who are experiencing financial difficulties.

It is anticipated to increase the government’s tax revenue and stimulate economic growth in the latter months of 2024.

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