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Nigeria: Investors lose N1.5trn in stocks after new monetary policy

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Following the significant changes to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) during its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on Tuesday, investors in the Nigerian stock market lost roughly N1.5 trillion of their capital.

The MPR was raised from 18.75% to an unprecedented MPR height of 22.75%, an unprecedented 400 basis points higher than before.

With the inflation rate rising to 29.90% annually in January and the January 2024 Consumer Price Index (CPI) report indicating that food inflation increased to 35.41% during that time from 33.93% in December 2023, the decision was made to abruptly increase the MPR to address the system’s high rate of inflation and substantial liquidity.

The total value of investments made on the Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX) is represented by the NGX market capitalization, which decreased from N55.810 trillion on Monday to N54.317 trillion at the close of trading on Wednesday.

Following the announcement of the new MPR by CBN Governor Yemi Cardoso on Tuesday, investors lost N773 billion on the stock market, and on Wednesday, it fell by an additional N720 billion.

In a similar spirit, the NGX All Share Index, or ASI, another important stock market indicator, saw a 2.7% drop for the second day in a row, closing at 99,266.02 points on Monday after closing at 101,995.53 points on Monday.

The NGX ASI fell 1.4% and 1.3%, respectively, on Tuesday and Wednesday, according to trading analysis.
Trade turnover settled lower in the market than it had in the previous session, with a 4.8% decrease in transaction value. 10,549 transactions totalling 396.23 million shares, valued at N5.83 billion, were completed.

The market’s immediate reaction to the 4% increase in MPR caused the benchmark NGX All Share index to close lower, which analysts attributed to selloffs in expensive stocks and profit-taking in blue-chip companies.

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Nigeria: Marketers predict further price cut as another refinery begins operations

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Oil marketers and the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority expect refined petroleum product prices to reduce as another public refinery in Warri begins operations.

The marketers made the prediction when the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited launched the 125,000-barrel-per-day Delta State WRPC. NNPCL also wants to export locally refined goods for foreign cash. Last month, the 60,000-barrel-per-day Port Harcourt Refinery in Rivers State began operations.

During an inspection tour of the facility on Monday, the NNPCL Group Chief Executive Officer, Mele Kyari, explained that the inspection aimed to show Nigerians the level of work completed so far.

During a tour with NMDPRA CEO Farouk Ahmed and NNPC Board Chairman Pius Akinyelure, Kyari said that while facility repairs were not yet 100% complete, refining operations had begun and would produce straight-run kerosene, diesel and naphtha.

In a statement commemorating the milestone, President Bola Tinubu stated the plant is functioning at 60% or 75,000 barrels per day.

Kyari said, “We are taking you through our plant. This plant is running. Although it is not 100 per cent complete, we are still in the process. Many people think these things are not real. They think real things are not possible in this country. We want you to see that this is real.”

Since some of these goods would be shipped to foreign markets, he said, the reopening of the Warri refinery will help the country become a net exporter of petroleum products.

“Secondly, this plant had three stages; we have started plant one, which we call Area One. It can produce AGO (diesel), kerosene, naphtha, and a blend of crude oil. These are high-grade quality products required in the country, and we may need to export them. So this will give us cash, this company will make money and the promise of Mr President that this country must be a net exporter of petroleum products is already happening. Some of these products will go into the international market.

“Most importantly, I must put on record that Mr President believes that we can get this to work and get them to start and gave us the charge that we must start all three refineries. It’s already happening; we have started the 60,000 barrels per day refinery, and Area One of the Warri refinery is already working. Other plants that would produce PMS are being streamed and they would also come alive.

Mustapha Zarma, the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria’s National Operations Controller, stated that the rivalry in the downstream oil industry will become more fierce.

There will undoubtedly be a further decrease in pricing if the plant begins producing goods in bulk, he stated. This is because the market will ultimately be influenced by market forces and there will be fierce rivalry.

Until recently, none of Nigeria’s publicly owned refineries has worked to capacity for years, despite several investments to revive them. The failure of the government to revive them contributed to the high level of national anticipation surrounding the Dangote refinery whose operations appear to have revolutionalised the industry.

The refinery will concentrate on manufacturing and storing essential goods, such as heavy and light naphtha, automotive petrol oil and straight-run kerosene.

The country’s first fully owned refinery, the WRPC, was put into service in 1978 and is situated in Warri, Delta State, Nigeria. It was first built to process 100,000 barrels of crude oil a day, but in 1987 it was updated to process 125,000 barrels.

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Kenya: Consumer inflation rises to 3.0% from 2.8%

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Kenya’s statistics agency said on Tuesday that Kenya’s consumer price inflation increased slightly to 3.0% year-over-year in December from 2.8% the previous month.

According to a release from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, monthly inflation was 0.6%, down from 0.3% in November. Kenya aims to have a medium-term inflation rate of 2.5% to 7.5%.

With inflation under control, Kenya’s central bank said there was an opportunity for looser policy to assist economic development, lowering its benchmark lending rate by a larger-than-expected 75 basis points to 11.25% on December 5.

 

Kenya’s GDP expanded by 5.2% in 2023, up from 4.8% in 2022, thanks to a recovery in agriculture and a modest increase in services. Household consumption accounted for 70% of the growth on the demand side, while services and agriculture accounted for 69% and 23% of the growth, respectively, on the supply side.

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