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IMF predicts $8 billion decline in Nigeria’s foreign reserves by 2024

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has cautioned that Nigeria’s foreign reserves could collapse to $24 billion in 2024 in its most recent country report, which shows a notable decline and possible FX issues for the continent’s largest economy.

The nation’s external reserves were $33.12 billion as of February 8, but the IMF predicts that the country’s financial account will face difficulties through 2024–2025 due to a lack of new Eurobond issuances, large repayments of existing funds and Eurobonds totalling $3.5 billion, and ongoing portfolio outflows.

The reported reserves were predicted to decline to $24 billion in 2024, despite anticipating a current account surplus. However, there was hope for a rebound to $38 billion by 2028 as portfolio inflows were predicted to increase once more.

The report read, “Through 2024–25, the financial account is likely to deteriorate, with no projected issuance of Eurobonds, large Fund and Eurobond repayments of $3.5bn, and portfolio outflows.

“Hence, despite a current account surplus, officially reported reserves are projected to decline to $24 billion in 2024 before increasing again to $38 billion in 2028 as portfolio inflows resume.”

The IMF observed that although there was a significant decrease in reserves, the current account had a surplus in the first half of 2023. Reduced exports of crude oil have been blamed for the slump, primarily as a result of oil theft and the underfunding of vital upstream infrastructure.

The IMF study also noted that, while marginally countering the negative effects on the current account, profit repatriation from the oil sector had decreased.

Amidst these circumstances, the nation has seen a decline in foreign direct investment and an increase in portfolio outflows, including equities and Eurobond repayments as well as repatriations.

The report added, “The CBN reported a 30-day average of gross international reserves declining to $33bn in October (almost $4bn below end-2022), covering six months of imports and 83% of the IMF’s ARA metric.

“Following the IMF’s definition of GIR, $8bn in securities is considered pledged collateral that is thus not readily available, reducing GIR under the IMF’s definition to $25bn at the end of October 2023.

“The authorities have not shared full information on short-term FX liabilities, which would be necessary to calculate net international reserves. Through 2024–25, the financial account is likely to deteriorate, with no projected issuance of Eurobonds, large Fund and Eurobond repayments of $3.5 billion, and portfolio outflows.”

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Nigeria: Marketers predict further price cut as another refinery begins operations

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Oil marketers and the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority expect refined petroleum product prices to reduce as another public refinery in Warri begins operations.

The marketers made the prediction when the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited launched the 125,000-barrel-per-day Delta State WRPC. NNPCL also wants to export locally refined goods for foreign cash. Last month, the 60,000-barrel-per-day Port Harcourt Refinery in Rivers State began operations.

During an inspection tour of the facility on Monday, the NNPCL Group Chief Executive Officer, Mele Kyari, explained that the inspection aimed to show Nigerians the level of work completed so far.

During a tour with NMDPRA CEO Farouk Ahmed and NNPC Board Chairman Pius Akinyelure, Kyari said that while facility repairs were not yet 100% complete, refining operations had begun and would produce straight-run kerosene, diesel and naphtha.

In a statement commemorating the milestone, President Bola Tinubu stated the plant is functioning at 60% or 75,000 barrels per day.

Kyari said, “We are taking you through our plant. This plant is running. Although it is not 100 per cent complete, we are still in the process. Many people think these things are not real. They think real things are not possible in this country. We want you to see that this is real.”

Since some of these goods would be shipped to foreign markets, he said, the reopening of the Warri refinery will help the country become a net exporter of petroleum products.

“Secondly, this plant had three stages; we have started plant one, which we call Area One. It can produce AGO (diesel), kerosene, naphtha, and a blend of crude oil. These are high-grade quality products required in the country, and we may need to export them. So this will give us cash, this company will make money and the promise of Mr President that this country must be a net exporter of petroleum products is already happening. Some of these products will go into the international market.

“Most importantly, I must put on record that Mr President believes that we can get this to work and get them to start and gave us the charge that we must start all three refineries. It’s already happening; we have started the 60,000 barrels per day refinery, and Area One of the Warri refinery is already working. Other plants that would produce PMS are being streamed and they would also come alive.

Mustapha Zarma, the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria’s National Operations Controller, stated that the rivalry in the downstream oil industry will become more fierce.

There will undoubtedly be a further decrease in pricing if the plant begins producing goods in bulk, he stated. This is because the market will ultimately be influenced by market forces and there will be fierce rivalry.

Until recently, none of Nigeria’s publicly owned refineries has worked to capacity for years, despite several investments to revive them. The failure of the government to revive them contributed to the high level of national anticipation surrounding the Dangote refinery whose operations appear to have revolutionalised the industry.

The refinery will concentrate on manufacturing and storing essential goods, such as heavy and light naphtha, automotive petrol oil and straight-run kerosene.

The country’s first fully owned refinery, the WRPC, was put into service in 1978 and is situated in Warri, Delta State, Nigeria. It was first built to process 100,000 barrels of crude oil a day, but in 1987 it was updated to process 125,000 barrels.

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Kenya: Consumer inflation rises to 3.0% from 2.8%

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Kenya’s statistics agency said on Tuesday that Kenya’s consumer price inflation increased slightly to 3.0% year-over-year in December from 2.8% the previous month.

According to a release from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, monthly inflation was 0.6%, down from 0.3% in November. Kenya aims to have a medium-term inflation rate of 2.5% to 7.5%.

With inflation under control, Kenya’s central bank said there was an opportunity for looser policy to assist economic development, lowering its benchmark lending rate by a larger-than-expected 75 basis points to 11.25% on December 5.

 

Kenya’s GDP expanded by 5.2% in 2023, up from 4.8% in 2022, thanks to a recovery in agriculture and a modest increase in services. Household consumption accounted for 70% of the growth on the demand side, while services and agriculture accounted for 69% and 23% of the growth, respectively, on the supply side.

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