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Nigerian manufacturers want govt to clear $7bn forex backlog

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The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) has begged the Nigerian government to clear the current $7 billion forex backlog, which they argue might lead to a challenging first six months of the year for players in the industry.

This position was expressed by the association’s Director-General in its “Manufacturing Sector Outlook for 2024” report, where it was also predicted that the Manufacturers’ CEOs’ Confidence Index would surpass 55 points by the end of Q42023, that sectoral real growth would likely reach roughly 3.2%, and that the sector’s contribution to the economy would probably surpass 10%.

Since the difficulties with foreign exchange and the high rate of inflation are likely to persist until the middle of the year, average capacity utilisation is predicted to remain close to the 50% mark.

Due to speculation and excess demand being directed to the black market, the naira has been losing value on the parallel market, creating a larger disparity with the official market, where trading restrictions were removed in June.

The report read in part, “Judging from the observed trend, it is obvious that the outlook for the manufacturing sector in 2024 may not be a positive one, at least in the first half of the year. The period will be challenging, with a subtle possibility of recovery from the third quarter.

“The envisaged recovery is highly dependent on the deployment of policy stimulus supported by a synthesis of domestic growth-driven, export-focused, and offensive trade strategies. This will promote resilience and steady growth and ensure that the sector gains meaningful traction in the later part of the year.”

According to MAN, increased manufacturing output is anticipated to start in the third quarter of the year when the government allocates budgetary funds for new, ongoing, and abandoned capital projects, with an anticipated preference for locally produced goods.

The association recommended that to counteract the unique inflationary pressures arising from insecurity, as well as energy and transportation costs, the government should use the money saved from the fuel subsidy to implement various production-focused policies, supported by more structural measures.

November saw a worsening of the cost-of-living crisis in the largest economy in Africa, as annual inflation reached its highest level in eighteen years— 28.20%.

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Nigeria: Marketers predict further price cut as another refinery begins operations

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Oil marketers and the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority expect refined petroleum product prices to reduce as another public refinery in Warri begins operations.

The marketers made the prediction when the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited launched the 125,000-barrel-per-day Delta State WRPC. NNPCL also wants to export locally refined goods for foreign cash. Last month, the 60,000-barrel-per-day Port Harcourt Refinery in Rivers State began operations.

During an inspection tour of the facility on Monday, the NNPCL Group Chief Executive Officer, Mele Kyari, explained that the inspection aimed to show Nigerians the level of work completed so far.

During a tour with NMDPRA CEO Farouk Ahmed and NNPC Board Chairman Pius Akinyelure, Kyari said that while facility repairs were not yet 100% complete, refining operations had begun and would produce straight-run kerosene, diesel and naphtha.

In a statement commemorating the milestone, President Bola Tinubu stated the plant is functioning at 60% or 75,000 barrels per day.

Kyari said, “We are taking you through our plant. This plant is running. Although it is not 100 per cent complete, we are still in the process. Many people think these things are not real. They think real things are not possible in this country. We want you to see that this is real.”

Since some of these goods would be shipped to foreign markets, he said, the reopening of the Warri refinery will help the country become a net exporter of petroleum products.

“Secondly, this plant had three stages; we have started plant one, which we call Area One. It can produce AGO (diesel), kerosene, naphtha, and a blend of crude oil. These are high-grade quality products required in the country, and we may need to export them. So this will give us cash, this company will make money and the promise of Mr President that this country must be a net exporter of petroleum products is already happening. Some of these products will go into the international market.

“Most importantly, I must put on record that Mr President believes that we can get this to work and get them to start and gave us the charge that we must start all three refineries. It’s already happening; we have started the 60,000 barrels per day refinery, and Area One of the Warri refinery is already working. Other plants that would produce PMS are being streamed and they would also come alive.

Mustapha Zarma, the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria’s National Operations Controller, stated that the rivalry in the downstream oil industry will become more fierce.

There will undoubtedly be a further decrease in pricing if the plant begins producing goods in bulk, he stated. This is because the market will ultimately be influenced by market forces and there will be fierce rivalry.

Until recently, none of Nigeria’s publicly owned refineries has worked to capacity for years, despite several investments to revive them. The failure of the government to revive them contributed to the high level of national anticipation surrounding the Dangote refinery whose operations appear to have revolutionalised the industry.

The refinery will concentrate on manufacturing and storing essential goods, such as heavy and light naphtha, automotive petrol oil and straight-run kerosene.

The country’s first fully owned refinery, the WRPC, was put into service in 1978 and is situated in Warri, Delta State, Nigeria. It was first built to process 100,000 barrels of crude oil a day, but in 1987 it was updated to process 125,000 barrels.

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Kenya: Consumer inflation rises to 3.0% from 2.8%

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Kenya’s statistics agency said on Tuesday that Kenya’s consumer price inflation increased slightly to 3.0% year-over-year in December from 2.8% the previous month.

According to a release from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, monthly inflation was 0.6%, down from 0.3% in November. Kenya aims to have a medium-term inflation rate of 2.5% to 7.5%.

With inflation under control, Kenya’s central bank said there was an opportunity for looser policy to assist economic development, lowering its benchmark lending rate by a larger-than-expected 75 basis points to 11.25% on December 5.

 

Kenya’s GDP expanded by 5.2% in 2023, up from 4.8% in 2022, thanks to a recovery in agriculture and a modest increase in services. Household consumption accounted for 70% of the growth on the demand side, while services and agriculture accounted for 69% and 23% of the growth, respectively, on the supply side.

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