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Nigeria: World Bank predicts 3.3% economic growth in 2024

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The World Bank, in its latest report titled, “Global Economic Prospect: Subdued Growth, Multiple Challenges,” has predicted that Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product will grow by 3.3% in 2024 and 3.7% in 2025.

The largest economy in Africa is expected to grow by 3.3% in 2024, according to the bank, rather than the 2.9% predicted for 2023. According to the study results, “As macro-fiscal reforms gradually bear fruit, growth in Nigeria is projected at 3.3% this year and 3.7 percent in 2025—up 0.3 and 0.6 percentage points, respectively, since June.”

“The baseline forecast implies that per capita income will reach its pre-pandemic level only in 2025.”

Since taking office, President Bola Tinubu has implemented a number of reforms, which include the elimination of fuel subsidies and efforts towards the harmonization of foreign exchange rates.

The Washington-based bank credited the growth in momentum to the present macro-fiscal reforms’ gradual realization, and predicted that commerce, services, building, and agriculture would propel the nation’s economic expansion.

The 2023 State of Global Food and Nutrition Security report states that there has been a 133% increase in food insecurity among Nigerians in just three years. Between 2020 and 2022, the number increased from 63.8 million in 2014 to 148.7 million in 2022.

“Inflation should gradually ease as the effects of last year’s exchange rate reforms and the removal of fuel subsidies fade. These structural reforms are expected to boost fiscal revenue over the forecast period,” the World Bank declared.

It stated that the disruptive currency demonetization policy—which involves replacing outdated, high-denomination naira notes—was to blame for the anticipated 2.9% softening of the Nigerian economy in 2023.

The World Bank also revealed that “growth in the region’s three largest economies—Nigeria, South Africa, and Angola—slowed to an average of 1.8% last year, holding back the region’s overall growth.

Africa’s fiscal conditions would continue to deteriorate in 2023 due to high public debt and a low domestic tax base, according to the United Nations’ “World Economic Situation and Prospects 2024” study.

“Efforts to increase in-country oil refining capacity would likely reduce domestic fuel costs in 2024 and beyond. Energy subsidy reforms in Nigeria, Angola, and Gambia, as well as tax hikes in Kenya, Ghana, and South Africa, aim to provide the government with some relief from tight fiscal spaces,” the UN stated.

Musings From Abroad

Nigeria, China extend $2bn currency swap deal

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A 15 billion yuan ($2 billion) currency-swap arrangement between China and Nigeria has been extended to boost investment and commerce between the two countries.

According to the People’s Bank of China, the agreement is anticipated to strengthen financial cooperation and encourage the wider use of the yuan and naira in bilateral transactions, as reported by Bloomberg and Chinese local media on Friday.

“The agreement is valid for three years and may be renewed upon mutual consent,” the central bank said in a statement.

The bank stated that by lowering reliance on third-party currencies like the US dollar, the currency-swap agreement renewal is expected to strengthen economic linkages, promote investment, and ease cross-border commerce.

When the Central Bank of Nigeria and the People’s Bank of China inked an agreement worth renminbi (RMB) 16 billion (about $2.5 billion) in May 2018, the currency-swap framework was first implemented.

Yi Gang, the former governor of the PBoC, and Godwin Emefiele, the suspended governor of the CBN, signed the deal.

The original agreement was intended to eliminate the need for third-party currencies like the US dollar by giving companies and industries in both nations direct access to the yuan and naira.

“This agreement will provide naira liquidity to Chinese businesses and RMB liquidity to Nigerian businesses respectively, thereby improving the speed, convenience, and volume of transactions between the two countries,” the CBN had said at the time of the signing.

To promote flexible and varied regional monetary and financial cooperation, including local currency swaps, to ease commerce between the two countries, President Bola Tinubu and President Xi Jinping of China met in September.

The leaders also talked about how currency-swap programs contribute to global financial stability.

Nigeria and China agreed to strengthen international collaboration on financial intelligence, emphasizing anti-money laundering and fighting the funding of terrorism, since commerce between the two nations makes up around 30% of Nigeria’s total trade.

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Musings From Abroad

World Bank suspends loan fees for impoverished countries

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To lower borrowing costs for vulnerable nations, the World Bank has announced the elimination of several loan fees. The action is a component of larger initiatives to increase financial capacity and tackle pressing global issues including inequality, climate change, and economic instability.

This was revealed by the international bank in a statement on Wednesday. The bank has extended its lowest pricing to tiny, fragile nations, removed the prepayment cost on International Bank for Reconstruction and Development loans, and instituted a grace period for commitment fees on undisbursed amounts.

“The bank is working hard to make it easier for countries to borrow and to pay back their loans more easily by removing some fees on IBRD loans,” the financial institution stated.

The financier claims that these adjustments are intended to relieve the financial strain on countries that require development funding the most.

“These measures are designed to make borrowing easier and more affordable for countries facing significant challenges,” the bank said. It added that the reforms align with its vision of building a “better, more efficient, and bigger” institution capable of addressing overlapping global crises.

The World Bank’s larger financial reforms, which include fee eliminations, are intended to boost lending capacity by $150 billion over the next ten years.

As part of the changes, the IBRD’s equity-to-loans ratio was lowered from 20% to 18%, allowing for an additional $70 billion in lending over ten years.

According to the statement, $1 billion was obtained through a guarantee from the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, and an additional $10 billion has been released through bilateral guarantees.

“The adjustments to our capital framework reflect our commitment to scaling up resources while maintaining financial stability,” the bank said.

The international lender highlighted that these adjustments are essential to tackling the billions of dollars that are required each year to help fragile governments, fight climate change, and advance digital inclusion.

It did concede, nevertheless, that states and multilateral organisations are insufficient to discharge these financial obligations on their own.

The Bank has created a Framework for Financial Incentives to close the gap, promoting investments in cross-border issues like pandemic prevention, energy access, water security, and biodiversity.

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