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Is it too early to judge Tinubu? By Azuka Onwuka

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As the administration of President Bola Tinubu goes into its eighth month, some people believe it is too early to judge him, while others believe it is enough time. Given Tinubu’s public relations savviness, a group has started to run a TV commercial, urging Nigerians to continue to support him and give him more time to produce the expected dividends of democracy.

Buhari was so aloof that anybody who took over from him and took some steps would have some things to show as distinguishing factors. Buhari did not fail because he didn’t do enough or was unlucky to be beset by problems beyond him. He was the only Nigerian president that was so aloof, detached and unconcerned that he could not sack erring aides or call aides or officers to them, including those who were working against one another and the nation. There was something incomprehensible and inexplicable about the type of leadership Buhari offered Nigeria. It was as if he completely did not care about what happened to Nigeria as long as some preferred groups of his were not adversely affected.

Talking did not move him. Complaining did not move him. Advising did not move him neither did ridiculing. It seemed that his life-long ambition was to be called an elected president to wipe away the image of a dictator who ruled the country with the force of a gun. And having achieved that, he was satisfied so much that nothing mattered to him. His illness also made things worse. After his recovery, it seemed he no longer cared about much. He was just satisfied with doing the minimal. After the illness, it seemed as if he was not fully conscious of the things happening around him. It was only when he spoke in one of the once-in-a-blue-moon interviews that it looked as if he was aware of happenings around him.

During the campaign period, Tinubu and members of the All Progressives Congress were careful not to criticise Buhari and the impact of his misgovernance on Nigeria. They did not want anything that could anger him and make him work against them at the polls. Tinubu even praised him a few times and promised to continue with his policies if elected. They kept on with the window dressing until the Independent National Electoral Commission declared Tinubu the winner and Tinubu got inaugurated as the president. From that point, they dropped the pretences and started telling the nation that Buhari handed a ruined economy to Tinubu.

Tinubu himself set the ball rolling in July in a coded way when he addressed the nation on the worsening socio-economic challenges. In a speech titled “After Darkness Comes the Glorious Dawn,” he bemoaned the various problems that the country was facing. He, however, ended the speech on a positive note by saying: “I assure you, my fellow countrymen and women, that we are exiting the darkness to enter a new and glorious dawn.” Although Tinubu was not directly blaming Buhari, that statement implied that the era of darkness he inherited from Buhari was coming to an end.

However, six months into his administration, Tinubu was no longer ready to sugar-coat the Buhari administration. He didn’t want to be solely blamed for the situation of the economy. In November, a key figure of the Tinubu administration said that Tinubu inherited a bankrupt country. While speaking at the chief of defence intelligence annual conference, the National Security Adviser, Nuhu Ribadu, made the assertion. Ribadu said inter alia:

“We are facing very serious budgetary constraints. It is okay for me to tell you. It is fine for you to know. We have a very serious situation,” he said.

“We have inherited a very difficult country, a bankrupt country to the extent that we are paying back what was taken. It is serious.”

Following the depreciation of the naira, rising cost of things as well as regular killings and kidnappings taking place in Nigeria, many people – including Tinubu’s supporters – had begun to criticise him. That seemed to have made Tinubu to decide that the time to keep quiet over what he inherited from Buhari was over.

The comment by Ribadu was like a cue for other APC people to start openly blaming Buhari for the woes of the country. That same November, Ogun State Governor, Dapo Abiodun, said the country was almost in a comma when Tinubu came into office. “Tinubu inherited an administration that was almost comatose,” he noted.

In December, an APC chieftain and former governor of Osun State, Chief Bisi Akande, blamed Buhari for the hardship Nigerians are facing because of the removal of fuel subsidy. He argued that if Buhari had taken the courageous step of removing the fuel subsidy in 2015 when he was elected, Nigerians would have adjusted to it by now.

But many Nigerians criticised the APC members for playing the same script that Buhari played. For the eight years he was in office, Buhari and his aides and other APC members blamed his predecessor, Goodluck Jonathan, for the woes of the country. Tinubu was reminded that during his campaign, he promised to solve the myriad of problems of Nigeria regarding security, economy, health, education, agriculture, electricity, etc.

Eight months may not be enough for an administration to change the fortunes of a country, but it is enough to start laying the foundation for such a turnaround. It is enough for an administration to show signs that it is genuinely eager to break with the past and do things differently. Nothing of that nature has been seen in the administration of Tinubu. And because Tinubu has been doing the regular, he has not been able to convince the people to believe that a new era has begun.

The naira has continued to speedily depreciate. When Buhari took over in 2015, one dollar was exchanged in the parallel market for about N220. By the time Buhari left in May 2023, the exchange rate had dropped to about N750 for a dollar. In the eight months of Tinubu’s administration, the naira has plummeted to about N1,350 – almost 100 per cent. The sad part is that there is no sign that the fall of the naira will stop soon.
Also, inflation has continued to rise. Expectedly, prices of goods and services have been rising too. Corruption has not shown any sign of stopping. But the most critical aspect of Nigeria’s problems is the insecurity. Kidnapping for ransom as well as the massacre of communities by bandits have been the scariest issues facing most Nigerians. Consequently, many financially comfortable people who never fell into the group eager to leave Nigeria have become eager to relocate.

However, one area that has done well is the stock market, which has performed as one of the best in the world. The curious part is that nobody has been able to explain why the Nigerian Stock Exchange has been doing extremely well at a time the economy is not doing well. For example, while at the end of December 2023, Unilever ceased the production of Omo (which has been the generic name for detergent in Nigeria for many decades), Lux, Sunlight, etc, the Nigerian Stock Exchange ended as the second-best exchange in the world behind Argentina.

The task of governing Nigeria at a time like this is daunting but not insurmountable. The most important trait a leader needs to achieve that is by winning the trust of the people. And to be trusted, a leader must lead by example and display top-level transparency, honesty and humility.

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Strictly Personal

Let’s merge EAC and Igad, By Nuur Mohamud Sheekh

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In an era of political and economic uncertainty, global crises and diminishing donor contributions, Africa’s regional economic communities (RECs) must reimagine their approach to regional integration.

The East African Community (EAC) and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (Igad), two critical RECs in East Africa and the Horn of Africa have an unprecedented opportunity to join forces, leveraging their respective strengths to drive sustainable peace and development and advance regional economic integration and promote the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

Already, four of the eight Igad member states are also members of the EAC and, with Ethiopia and Sudan showing interest, the new unified bloc would be formidable.

Igad’s strength lies in regional peacemaking, preventive diplomacy, security, and resilience, especially in a region plagued by protracted conflicts, climate challenges, and humanitarian crises. The EAC, on the other hand, has made remarkable strides in economic integration, exemplified by its Customs Union, Common Market, and ongoing efforts toward a monetary union. Combining these comparative advantages would create a formidable entity capable of addressing complex challenges holistically.

Imagine a REC that pairs Igad’s conflict resolution strengths with the EAC’s diplomatic standing and robust economic framework. Member states of both are also contributing troops to peacekeeping missions. Such a fusion would streamline efforts to create a peaceful and economically prosperous region, addressing the root causes of instability while simultaneously promoting trade investment and regional cooperation.

These strengths will be harnessed to deal with inter-state tensions that we are currently witnessing, including between Ethiopia and Somalia over the Somaliland MoU, strained relations between Djibouti and Eritrea, and the continually deteriorating relations between Eritrea and Ethiopia.

The global economy experienced as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, compounded by the Ukraine war and competing global crises, has strained donor countries and reduced financial contributions to multilateral organisations and African RECs. Member states, many of which are grappling with fiscal constraints, are increasingly unable to fill this gap, failing to make timely contributions, which is in turn affecting key mandate areas of Igad and EAC, and staff morale.

A merger between Igad and EAC would alleviate this financial pressure by eliminating redundancies. Shared administrative systems, integrated programmes, and a unified leadership structure would optimise resources, enabling the new REC to achieve more with less. Staff rationalisation, while sensitive, is a necessary step to ensure that limited funds are channelled toward impactful initiatives rather than duplicative overheads.

The African Union (AU) envisions a fully integrated Africa, with RECs serving as the building blocks of the AfCFTA. A unified EAC-Igad entity would become a powerhouse for regional integration, unlocking economies of scale and harmonising policies across a wider geographical and economic landscape.

This merger would enhance the implementation of the AfCFTA by creating a larger, more cohesive market that attracts investment, fosters innovation, and increases competitiveness. By aligning trade policies, infrastructure projects, and regulatory frameworks, the new REC could serve as a model for others, accelerating continental integration.

The road to integration is not without obstacles. Political will, divergent institutional mandates, and the complexity of harmonising systems pose significant challenges. However, these hurdles are surmountable through inclusive dialogue, strong leadership, and a phased approach to integration.

Member states must prioritise the long-term benefits of unity over short-term political considerations. Civil society, the private sector, the youth, and international partners also have a critical role to play in advocating for and supporting this transformative initiative.

The time for EAC and Igad to join forces is now. By merging into a single REC, they would pool their strengths, optimise resources, and position themselves as a driving force for regional and continental integration. In doing so, they would not only secure a prosperous future for their citizens and member states but also advance the broader vision of an integrated and thriving Africa.

As the world grapples with crises, Africa must look inward, embracing the power of unity to achieve its potential. A combined Igad-EAC is the bold step forward that the continent needs.

Nuur Mohamud Sheekh, a diplomatic and geopolitical analyst based in London, is a former spokesperson of the Igad Executive Secretary. X: @NuursViews

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Strictly Personal

Budgets, budgeting and budget financing, By Sheriffdeen A. Tella, Ph.D.

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The budget season is here again. It is an institutional and desirable annual ritual. Revenue collection and spending at the federal, State and local government levels must be authorised and guided by law. That is what budget is all about. A document containing the estimates of projected revenues from identified sources and the proposed expenditure for different sectors in the appropriate level of government. The last two weeks have seen the delivery of budget drafts to various Houses of Assembly and the promise that the federal government would present its draft budget to the National Assembly.

Do people still look forward to the budget presentation and the contents therein? I am not sure. Citizens have realised that these days, governments often spend money without reference to the approved budget. A governor can just wake up and direct that a police station be built in a location. With no allocation in the budget, the station will be completed in three months. The President can direct from his bathroom that 72 trailers of maize be distributed to the 36 states as palliatives. No budget provision, and no discussion by relevant committee or group.

We still operate with the military mentality. We operated too long under the military and of the five Presidents we have in this democracy, two of them were retired military Heads of State. Between them, they spent 16 years of 25 years of democratic governance. Hopefully, we are done with them physically but not mentally. Most present governors grew up largely under military regimes with the command system. That is why some see themselves as emperor and act accordingly. Their direct staff and commissioners are “Yes” men and women. There is need for disorientation.

The importance of budget in the art of governance cannot be overemphasized. It is one of the major functions of the legislature because without the consideration and authorisation of spending of funds by this arm of government, the executive has no power to start spending money. There is what we refer to as a budget cycle or stages. The budget drafting stage within the purview of the executive arm is the first stage and, followed by the authorisation stage where the legislature discusses, evaluates and tinkers with the draft for approval before presenting it to the President for his signature.

Thereafter, the budget enters the execution phase or cycle where programmes and projects are executed by the executive arm with the legislature carrying out oversight functions. Finally, we enter the auditing phase when the federal and State Auditors verify and report on the execution of the budgets. The report would normally be submitted to the Legislature. Many Auditor Generals have fallen victim at this stage for daring to query the executives on some aspects of the execution in their reports.

A new budget should contain the objectives and achievements of the preceding budget in the introduction as the foundation for the budget. More appropriately, a current budget derives its strength from a medium-term framework which also derives its strength from a national Development Plan or a State Plan. An approved National Plan does not exist currently, although the Plan launched by the Muhammadu Buhari administration is in the cooler. President Tinubu, who is acclaimed to be the architect of the Lagos State long-term Plan seems curiously, disillusioned with a national Plan.

Some States like Oyo and Kaduna, have long-term Plans that serve as the source of their annual budgets. Economists and policymakers see development plans as instruments of salvation for developing countries. Mike Obadan, the former Director General of the moribund Nigeria Centre for Economic and Management Administration, opined that a Plan in a developing country serves as an instrument to eradicate poverty, achieve high rates of economic growth and promote economic and social development.

The Nigerian development plans were on course until the adoption of the World Bank/IMF-inspired Structural Adjustment Programme in 1986 when the country and others that adopted the programme were forced to abandon such plan for short-term stabilisation policies in the name of a rolling plan. We have been rolling in the mud since that time. One is not surprised that the Tinubu administration is not looking at the Buhari Development Plan since the government is World Bank/IMF compliant. It was in the news last week that our President is an American asset and by extension, Nigeria’s policies must be defined by America which controls the Bretton Woods institutions.

A national Plan allows the citizens to monitor quantitatively, the projects and programmes being executed or to be executed by the government through the budgeting procedure. It is part of the definitive measures of transparency and accountability which most Nigerian governments do not cherish. So, you cannot pin your government down to anything.

Budgets these days hardly contain budget performance in terms of revenue, expenditure and other achievements like several schools, hospitals, small-scale enterprises, etc, that the government got involved in successfully and partially. These are the foundation for a new budget like items brought forward in accounting documents. The new budget should state the new reforms or transformations that would be taking place. Reforms like shifting from dominance of recurrent expenditure to capital expenditure; moving from the provision of basic needs programmes to industrialisation, and from reliance on foreign loans to dependence on domestic fund mobilisation for executing the budget.

That brings us to the issue of budget deficit and borrowing. When an economy is in recession, expansionary fiscal policy is recommended. That is, the government will need to spend more than it receives to pump prime the economy. If this is taken, Nigeria has always had a deficit budget, implying that we are always in economic recession. The fact is that even when we had a surplus in our balance of payment that made it possible to pay off our debts, we still had a deficit budget. We are so used to borrowing at the national level that stopping it will look like the collapse of the Nigerian state. The States have also followed the trend. Ordinarily, since States are largely dependent on the federal government for funds, they should promote balanced budget.

The States are like a schoolboy who depends on his parents for school fees and feeding allowance but goes about borrowing from classmates. Definitely, it is the parents that will surely pay the debt. The debt forgiveness mentality plays a major role in the process. Having enjoyed debt forgiveness in the past, the federal government is always in the credit market and does not caution the State governments in participating in the market. Our Presidents don’t feel ashamed when they are begging for debt forgiveness in international forum where issues on global development are being discussed. Not less than twice I have watched the countenance of some Presidents, even from Africa, while they looked at our president with disdain when issues of debt forgiveness for African countries was raised.

In most cases, the government, both at the federal and state cannot show the product of loans, except those lent by institutions like the World Bank or African Development Bank for specific projects which are monitored by the lending institutions. In other cases, the loans are stolen and transferred abroad while we are paying the loans. In some other cases, the loans are diverted to projects other than what the proposal stated. There was a case of loans obtained based on establishing an international car park in the border of the State but diverted to finance the election of a politician in the State. The politician eventually lost the election but the citizens of the State have to be taxed to pay the loan. Somebody as “Nigeria we hail thee”.

Transformation in budgeting should commence subsequently at the State and federal level. Now that local government will enjoy some financial autonomy and therefore budgeting process, they should be legally barred from contracting foreign loans. They have no business participating in the market. They should promote balanced budget where proposed expenditures must equal the expected revenues from federal and internal sources. The State government that cannot mobilise, from records, up to 40 percent of its total budget from IGR should not be supported to contract foreign loans. The States should engage in a balanced budget. The federal government budget should shift away from huge allocations to recurrent expenditure towards capital expenditure for capital formation and within the context of a welfarist state.

Sheriffdeen A. Tella, Ph.D.

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