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Burundi: IMF predicts 4.3% economic growth against 2023’s 2.7% 

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Burundi’s GDP is expected to grow by 4.3% this year from 2.7% in 2023, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). This growth is largely due to increased performance in the agriculture sector.

Burundi’s economy, which has a population of 12 million, is primarily dependent on agricultural income, particularly from tea and coffee.

“Growth is projected to accelerate… supported by strong agricultural production, productive investment, and the ongoing reforms,” the fund said in a statement late on Tuesday.

According to the fund, Burundi’s 2023 economic activity was hindered by fuel shortages. After years of violence and political unrest under former leader Pierre Nkurunziza, which left important sectors abandoned, Burundi’s economy is only now beginning to revive.

It has a hard cash shortage following political turmoil in 2015 that forced donors to halt help. The United States promised assistance, while the European Union agreed to resume financial help in 2022.

Burundi’s foreign exchange reserves at the end of the previous year were $96.4 million, or 0.8 months’ worth of import cover, according to the IMF.

Remittance inflows, gold exports, and IMF funding disbursements provided some respite, the fund reported.

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South Africa: Petrol, diesel prices to rise on Wednesday. Here’s why

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Following an increase in the price of oil due to the crisis between Iran and Israel, petrol and diesel prices will be raised in South Africa on Wednesday.

The cost of unleaded petrol will go up by 25 cents per gallon for both 93 and 95. Depending on the sulphur concentration, diesel’s wholesale price will increase by either 20 or 21 cents per litre.

Illuminating paraffin’s wholesale price will increase by 21 cents per litre, and the maximum retail price of LP gas will rise by 36 cents per kilogramme.

Fuel prices dropped to their lowest points since February 2022, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine disrupted supply chains and limited the import of Russian crude oil, sending oil prices to multi-year highs. This was at the beginning of October.

The Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources stated on Monday that the average price of Brent Crude oil rose from $72.82 per barrel to $75.07 over the last month, following several months of pressure on the price of oil.

“The main contributing factor is the continued conflict in the Middle East and the stand-off between Iran and Israel,” the department said in a statement.

Investors are worried that an Israeli strike on Iran’s oil infrastructure will not only remove Iranian crude from the market but also incite a larger confrontation including other oil exporters in the region.

Since oil is priced in dollars, the rand exchange rate also affects fuel prices in South Africa.

According to the department, the rand averaged R17.53/$ over the previous month, down from R17.68 in September. However, this was insufficient to offset the rising price of oil.

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Fitch upgrades Egypt’s credit rating to ‘B’

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Fitch, a credit rating agency has upgraded Egypt’s rating from “B-” to “B” citing tighter monetary circumstances and the country’s improved financial standing thanks to a number of foreign investments and assistance.

“Egypt’s external finances have been bolstered… FX buffers have recovered, and we have somewhat greater confidence that the more flexible exchange rate policy will prove more durable than in the past,” Fitch said, as it also assigned Egypt a stable outlook.

As it attempts to recover from a protracted economic crisis that has resulted in record inflation, a growing debt load, and significant currency devaluations over the last two years, the North African country has been looking for significant investments.

In order to stabilise its economy, Egypt obtained a $8 billion loan package from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) this year, along with a $35 billion real estate investment package from Abu Dhabi and about $1 billion from the EU.

The IMF insisted that the loan amount was suitable, despite Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi’s suggestion last month that his government should reevaluate the agreement in light of the country’s growing regional concerns.

Fitch also cautioned on Friday that Egypt faces a significant risk from a further escalation of the regional conflict.

Yemen’s Houthi attacks on Red Sea ships have caused trade to be rerouted from the Suez Canal, which has negatively impacted tourism and Egypt’s revenue stream. There are also dangers associated with the larger Middle East conflict.

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