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Zimbabwe’s economic growth to fall in 2024. Here’s why

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Zimbabwe’s Finance Minister, Mthuli Ncube, has revealed that the country’s economic growth is expected to fall to 3.5% in 2024 from 5.5% this year.

The minister explained that the fall in crop yields during the 2023–2024 farming season is expected to be caused by an anticipated drought brought on by El Nino, a natural climate phenomenon in which surface waters of the central and eastern Pacific become unusually warm, causing changes in global weather patterns.

Ncube added that growth will be hampered by falling prices for mineral commodities. According to him, Zimbabwe’s budget deficit is predicted to be 1.2% of GDP at the end of the year, and annual inflation is predicted to drop from 20% in 2023 to 10%–20% in 2024.

“Going into 2024… fiscal restraint and tight monetary policy, together with a healthy current account position, provide the necessary conditions for currency and price stability,” Ncube said.

He suggested raising the toll on the busiest road in the nation, levying sugar-filled drink taxes, and instituting a wealth tax to improve revenue collection. To promote value addition, he added, lithium miners should submit refinery plans by March 2024. Africa’s top producer of lithium is Zimbabwe.

Zimbabwe’s economy has been fluctuating since the beginning of the year 2000. It has experienced episodes of hyperinflation which resulted in the depreciation of the national currency and the introduction of a multi-currency system in 2009. Its Real GDP growth remained high at 6.5% in 2022 from 8.5% in 2021 driven by a continued growth in agricultural production.

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Food prices drive second straight monthly hike in Nigeria’s inflation

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According to official statistics released on Friday, Nigeria’s inflation rate increased for the second consecutive month in October, rising to 33.88% in annual terms from 32.70% in September, mostly as a result of increasing food costs.

In an attempt to boost economic development and strengthen public finances, President Bola Tinubu devalued the naira and reduced subsidies, which caused inflation to spike in the second half of last year.

As the effects of the naira devaluation started to lessen in July of this year, a slew of hikes in the price of petroleum and devastating floods that destroyed crops once again exacerbated pricing pressures, making the greatest cost-of-living crisis in decades worse in Africa’s most populous country.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, price increases for basics such as rice, maize, bread, potatoes, and cooking oil prompted food inflation to surge from 37.77% in October to 39.16% year over year.

This year, more than 1.5 million hectares of agriculture have been damaged by torrential rain and floods in 29 of Nigeria’s 36 states, leaving millions hungry and displacing large numbers of people.

In an effort to curb inflation, the central bank has raised interest rates five times this year. On November 26, it is expected to make its final rate decision of the year.

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MTN financial report reveals drop in group service revenue

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Due to operational difficulties in Sudan and the depreciation of the Nigerian naira, MTN Group, Africa’s largest telecom provider, announced on Thursday an 18.5% decline in service revenue for the third quarter that concluded on September 30.

With 288 million users in 17 African regions, MTN said that its group service revenue dropped from 156.3 billion rand ($6.99 billion) in the same quarter of the previous year to 127.4 billion rand.

Despite stating that “the naira was less volatile on a sequential basis in Q3 than in preceding quarters,” the business reported a 48.7% decline in MTN Nigeria’s income due to the currency’s depreciation.

Due to a stronger Ugandan shilling than the previous year, Uganda’s largest contributor, MTN South Africa (MTN SA), expanded by a meagre 3.3%.

Due to “subscriber registration regulations in Nigeria and a decline in users in Sudan, where the conflict has displaced millions of people,” the business reported that its subscriber base increased by 1.6% to 288 million.

Given the higher demand in Nigeria despite the legal obstacles, MTN plans to increase its capital expenditures, which it expects would total between 28 and 33 billion rand for the entire year.

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