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Nigeria not earning enough for its developmental needs— IMF

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has stated that Nigeria is not earning enough revenue to support its developmental needs.

Nigeria’s Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Abubakar Bagudu, during the 2024 budget presentation before parliament, admitted that “revenue generation remains the major fiscal constraint to Nigeria’s fiscal viability. However, the government is reviewing current tax and fiscal policies to improve revenue generation.

“The target is to increase the ratio of revenue to GDP from less than 10% currently to 18% within the current term of this administration. Efforts will however focus on improving tax administration and collection efficiency.”

The Director of the IMF’s Communications Department, Julie Kozak, revealed over the weekend that the country’s 9% revenue to Gross Domestic Product ratio was very low and not enough to support the country’s social safety nets and development spending, and protect its vulnerable households.

“As we mentioned in our Article IV Consultation, which was held in February 2023, raising revenue from the very current low revenue to GDP ratio of 9% is essential to create fiscal space for social and development spending,” she said in response to a question about Nigeria during the briefing.

“Nine per cent of GDP is a very low revenue to GDP ratio, and it is not high enough to be able to support strong social safety nets, and development spending, to help protect vulnerable households and also to meet Nigeria’s development needs.”

She added, “The 2024 budget aims to reduce the fiscal deficit while also creating space for these priority spendings, both on the social side and also on the development side.”

 

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Food prices drive second straight monthly hike in Nigeria’s inflation

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According to official statistics released on Friday, Nigeria’s inflation rate increased for the second consecutive month in October, rising to 33.88% in annual terms from 32.70% in September, mostly as a result of increasing food costs.

In an attempt to boost economic development and strengthen public finances, President Bola Tinubu devalued the naira and reduced subsidies, which caused inflation to spike in the second half of last year.

As the effects of the naira devaluation started to lessen in July of this year, a slew of hikes in the price of petroleum and devastating floods that destroyed crops once again exacerbated pricing pressures, making the greatest cost-of-living crisis in decades worse in Africa’s most populous country.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, price increases for basics such as rice, maize, bread, potatoes, and cooking oil prompted food inflation to surge from 37.77% in October to 39.16% year over year.

This year, more than 1.5 million hectares of agriculture have been damaged by torrential rain and floods in 29 of Nigeria’s 36 states, leaving millions hungry and displacing large numbers of people.

In an effort to curb inflation, the central bank has raised interest rates five times this year. On November 26, it is expected to make its final rate decision of the year.

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MTN financial report reveals drop in group service revenue

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Due to operational difficulties in Sudan and the depreciation of the Nigerian naira, MTN Group, Africa’s largest telecom provider, announced on Thursday an 18.5% decline in service revenue for the third quarter that concluded on September 30.

With 288 million users in 17 African regions, MTN said that its group service revenue dropped from 156.3 billion rand ($6.99 billion) in the same quarter of the previous year to 127.4 billion rand.

Despite stating that “the naira was less volatile on a sequential basis in Q3 than in preceding quarters,” the business reported a 48.7% decline in MTN Nigeria’s income due to the currency’s depreciation.

Due to a stronger Ugandan shilling than the previous year, Uganda’s largest contributor, MTN South Africa (MTN SA), expanded by a meagre 3.3%.

Due to “subscriber registration regulations in Nigeria and a decline in users in Sudan, where the conflict has displaced millions of people,” the business reported that its subscriber base increased by 1.6% to 288 million.

Given the higher demand in Nigeria despite the legal obstacles, MTN plans to increase its capital expenditures, which it expects would total between 28 and 33 billion rand for the entire year.

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