Mozambique’s economy is predicted to grow by 5.5% next year, but the country’s budget deficit is growing as well, accounting for 10.4% of GDP due to debt service.
The finance minister said the growth would also be affected by public sector wage reforms and election spending. This contrasts with 2023 targets of 5.0% growth and a budget deficit of 8.7% of GDP.
In a 2024 budget speech, Finance Minister, Max Tonela, provided the most recent estimates. He stated that 3.0% of GDP would come from domestic borrowing, 1.9% from foreign loans, and 5.4% from external grants.
He stated that, among other sectors, extractive industries, agriculture, and finance would propel growth in 2024.
Over the past ten years, the economy of the country has experienced several setbacks, such as a “hidden debt” crisis, severe cyclones, and an insurgency associated with the Islamic State that is centred in the gas-rich province of Cabo Delgado.
Given those blows, “our country continues to follow a remarkable path of growth recovery, with a promising scenario in the medium term,” Tonela said.
Mozambique’s economy is mainly driven by the recovery of services and the start of liquified natural gas (LNG) production at the Coral South offshore facility.
According to the World Bank, following a gradual rebound in 2021, growth picked up steam in 2022, hitting 4.2%, and is predicted to soar to 6.0% in 2023 as LNG output at the Coral South offshore facility increases.