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Ghana: Finance minister expects debt restructuring deal next week

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Ghana’s Finance Minister, Ken Ofori-Atta, is confident his country will soon conclude the process for a restructuring deal with its official creditors by the end of next week.

The “cut-off date”—the date after which new loans will not be restructured—and the comparability of treatment between creditors were the major outstanding issues, Ofori-Atta told reporters, adding that any cut-off date would be fine for Ghana.

The minister stated that no single creditor, with a committee co-chaired by France and China, was impeding the debt restructuring because they were all worried about protecting their own interests. To receive approval from the executive board of the International Monetary Fund for the next $600 million payout from a $3 billion rescue loan, Ghana must come to a restructuring agreement with its official creditors.

“I hope that by the end of next week, we’ll have what we need,” Ofori-Atta said. “One of the key issues is the cut-off date and ensuring that treatment is comparable.”

“We can manage either way. So the issue is (for) the membership of the OCC to get comfortable with how it impacts them,” Ofori-Atta said when asked if there was a date that Ghana preferred.

“Everybody is looking at the comparability of treatment, and China and France are certainly the (official creditor committee) co-chairs, so they have a good impact on what will happen.”

Ghana, one of the first African nations to default on its foreign debt, is a major producer of cocoa, gold, and oil, but it has also been experiencing the worst economic downturn in a generation, with double-digit inflation and skyrocketing public debt.

Protests against the government were held last month in Accra due to worries about the nation’s economic situation.

Ghana defaulted on most of its external debts in December 2022 after it was locked out of international capital markets; and its debt costs spiralled out of control, exacerbating an economic crisis in which its currency slid and inflation soared.

The official creditors, who hold about $5.4 billion of Ghana’s $20 billion external debt that is being restructured, were considering dates in March 2020 and December 2022, Reuters reported in September.

While Dec. 31, 2022 is close to when Ghana defaulted, March 24, 2020 was being considered as a cut-off date because that was when the G20 introduced its debt service suspension initiative (DSSI) to help the world’s poorest countries cope with the fallout of the COVID-19 crisis, two sources said at the time. Ghana did not participate in the DSSI.

Ghana is restructuring its debt under the G20 Common Framework platform, which has been criticised for delays and divisions between creditors groups. Zambia’s process was derailed earlier this month when its official creditors rejected a deal the country reached with international bondholders.

Ghana owes about $13 billion to overseas bondholders. Good discussions were ongoing with them, Ofori-Atta said.

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Nigeria: Marketers predict further price cut as another refinery begins operations

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Oil marketers and the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority expect refined petroleum product prices to reduce as another public refinery in Warri begins operations.

The marketers made the prediction when the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited launched the 125,000-barrel-per-day Delta State WRPC. NNPCL also wants to export locally refined goods for foreign cash. Last month, the 60,000-barrel-per-day Port Harcourt Refinery in Rivers State began operations.

During an inspection tour of the facility on Monday, the NNPCL Group Chief Executive Officer, Mele Kyari, explained that the inspection aimed to show Nigerians the level of work completed so far.

During a tour with NMDPRA CEO Farouk Ahmed and NNPC Board Chairman Pius Akinyelure, Kyari said that while facility repairs were not yet 100% complete, refining operations had begun and would produce straight-run kerosene, diesel and naphtha.

In a statement commemorating the milestone, President Bola Tinubu stated the plant is functioning at 60% or 75,000 barrels per day.

Kyari said, “We are taking you through our plant. This plant is running. Although it is not 100 per cent complete, we are still in the process. Many people think these things are not real. They think real things are not possible in this country. We want you to see that this is real.”

Since some of these goods would be shipped to foreign markets, he said, the reopening of the Warri refinery will help the country become a net exporter of petroleum products.

“Secondly, this plant had three stages; we have started plant one, which we call Area One. It can produce AGO (diesel), kerosene, naphtha, and a blend of crude oil. These are high-grade quality products required in the country, and we may need to export them. So this will give us cash, this company will make money and the promise of Mr President that this country must be a net exporter of petroleum products is already happening. Some of these products will go into the international market.

“Most importantly, I must put on record that Mr President believes that we can get this to work and get them to start and gave us the charge that we must start all three refineries. It’s already happening; we have started the 60,000 barrels per day refinery, and Area One of the Warri refinery is already working. Other plants that would produce PMS are being streamed and they would also come alive.

Mustapha Zarma, the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria’s National Operations Controller, stated that the rivalry in the downstream oil industry will become more fierce.

There will undoubtedly be a further decrease in pricing if the plant begins producing goods in bulk, he stated. This is because the market will ultimately be influenced by market forces and there will be fierce rivalry.

Until recently, none of Nigeria’s publicly owned refineries has worked to capacity for years, despite several investments to revive them. The failure of the government to revive them contributed to the high level of national anticipation surrounding the Dangote refinery whose operations appear to have revolutionalised the industry.

The refinery will concentrate on manufacturing and storing essential goods, such as heavy and light naphtha, automotive petrol oil and straight-run kerosene.

The country’s first fully owned refinery, the WRPC, was put into service in 1978 and is situated in Warri, Delta State, Nigeria. It was first built to process 100,000 barrels of crude oil a day, but in 1987 it was updated to process 125,000 barrels.

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Kenya: Consumer inflation rises to 3.0% from 2.8%

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Kenya’s statistics agency said on Tuesday that Kenya’s consumer price inflation increased slightly to 3.0% year-over-year in December from 2.8% the previous month.

According to a release from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, monthly inflation was 0.6%, down from 0.3% in November. Kenya aims to have a medium-term inflation rate of 2.5% to 7.5%.

With inflation under control, Kenya’s central bank said there was an opportunity for looser policy to assist economic development, lowering its benchmark lending rate by a larger-than-expected 75 basis points to 11.25% on December 5.

 

Kenya’s GDP expanded by 5.2% in 2023, up from 4.8% in 2022, thanks to a recovery in agriculture and a modest increase in services. Household consumption accounted for 70% of the growth on the demand side, while services and agriculture accounted for 69% and 23% of the growth, respectively, on the supply side.

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