South Africa’s finance minister, during a mid-term budget review on Wednesday, revealed plans to drive revenue inflow through increased taxes next year.
The revelation comes as the National Treasury projects wider budget deficits and higher debt over the next three years.
Compared to the 4.0% deficit observed in February, a consolidated budget deficit of 4.9% of GDP is anticipated in 2023–2024. The Treasury projects a 4.6% and 4.2% GDP deficit in the upcoming years.
It is anticipated that South Africa’s gross debt will increase from 5.24 trillion rand in 2023–2024 to 6.52 trillion rand in 2026–2027. Its gross debt is also predicted to stabilise at 77.7% of GDP in 2025–2026, as opposed to 73.6% of GDP in February of the same year.
A major constraint on South Africa’s economic growth potential in the last decade has been rolling power cuts as utility Eskom struggles with breakdowns at its coal-fired power plants. The country is one of Africa’s most industrialised economies, and the power outages have threatened businesses and the general economy. Growth has also been hampered by Transnet, a state-owned logistics company that is also currently performing poorly.
According to the Treasury, the development has led to a decrease in tax receipts, along with a notable decline in mining revenue as commodity prices decline. The projected revenue collections for the current fiscal year, 2023–2024, were $3.04 billion, or 56.8 billion rand, less than what was estimated in the main budget for February.
The official, however, maintained that reductions in spending, modest tax revenue measures, and government-wide efficiency measures—such as reorganising the government through the merger or closure of public entities—were part of the efforts to stabilize the country’s public finances.
“Given the extent of fiscal consolidation required, the Minister of Finance will propose tax measures to raise additional revenue of 15 billion rand in 2024/25 in the 2024 budget,” the Treasury said.
Finance Minister, Enoch Godongwana stated in his budget speech that “our most effective way of funding government is through an efficient tax administration and by broadening the tax base.” The Treasury did not go into detail about the specific measures.