South Africa’s headline inflation rose to 4.8% year-on-year in August from 4.7% in July but within the central bank’s goal range.
The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) has planned to sustain inflation at about the middle of that goal range, which is between 3% and 6%.
The latest inflation figure has, however, drawn reactions from some experts. According to economist, Elize Kruger, one or two of the Monetary Policy Committee’s five members may support another rate increase, given that inflation stopped declining in August.
“This economy remains firmly in ‘muddle-along’ mode, unable to gain sustainable momentum and the monetary policy stance is already sufficiently restrictive for the current state of growth and inflation,” she added.
Jason Tuvey, another economist, expressed scepticism that the SARB would restart tightening policy after deciding to “hold” it in July after 10 straight rate increases.
“The rise in inflation was modest and, while the headline rate is likely to hover around 5% over the coming months, we think that officials will have taken some comfort from the dip in inflation expectations in Q2,” he said.
For the seventh consecutive month, annual food and NAB inflation fell, easing from 9,9% in July to 8,0% in August. All food and NAB categories saw reduced annual rates in August, with the exception of fruit.
In comparison to July’s reading of 13,1%, the yearly rate for bread and cereal was 9,9%. Many goods, including white bread, brown bread, maize flour, and cereals, were less expensive in August compared to July. But, the price increase of 3.4% month over month for rice put a damper on the otherwise cheery data.
The South African economy grew by 0.4 per cent in the first quarter of 2023, while data for the second quarter has not been released by official data sources. The country continues its recovery efforts after power outages associated with load shedding defined the better part of 2022, and continues to define this year to angry reactions and social unease.