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Nigerian oil marketers say fresh petrol price increase looms as crude reaches $94

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Following a recent rise in the cost of crude oil, and further depreciation of the Nigerian currency, Naira, there are concerns about another hike in the price of Premium Motor Spirit, popularly called petrol.

On Sunday, oil marketers asked that the government should gradually boost the amount secretly paid as a petrol subsidy due to the rapid spike in crude oil price to about $94 per barrel, and Nigeria’s foreign exchange crisis.  According to the downstream oil dealers, around 80% of the price of PMS was determined by the price of crude oil and the dollar’s value at the time.

The price of Brent crude, the world’s standard for oil, increased to $94 a barrel on Sunday, the highest level since 2023. Oil started the year at around $82/barrel, fell below $70/barrel in June, but has recently traded above $92/barrel.

The dealers stressed that if the government maintained the price of petrol at N617 per litre, then the subsidy on PMS had been covertly returned. They explained that with the most recent increase in the price of crude oil, the cost of petrol was expected to climb.

The marketers noted that in July when the price of fuel was increased to N617 per litre, crude oil traded at roughly $82 per barrel, while the exchange rate at the parallel market was not as high as N950 per dollar.

The previous administration of Muhammadu Buhari postponed the removal of the subsidy but made budgetary preparations for the subsidy to terminate by June 2023. However, President Tinubu stated, “Subsidy is gone,” during his inaugural speech on May 29.

Last month, Tinubu, during a nationwide address, revealed that the government had saved ₦1 trillion in the two months since the removal of the petrol subsidy. He added that the money, which would have been squandered by those he called “smugglers and fraudsters”, would now be channelled into intervention programmes targeting families nationwide.

Since the removal of fuel subsidies, there has been back and forth between the government and organized labour on the best approach to manage the fallouts of the policy.

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Nigeria: Marketers predict further price cut as another refinery begins operations

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Oil marketers and the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority expect refined petroleum product prices to reduce as another public refinery in Warri begins operations.

The marketers made the prediction when the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited launched the 125,000-barrel-per-day Delta State WRPC. NNPCL also wants to export locally refined goods for foreign cash. Last month, the 60,000-barrel-per-day Port Harcourt Refinery in Rivers State began operations.

During an inspection tour of the facility on Monday, the NNPCL Group Chief Executive Officer, Mele Kyari, explained that the inspection aimed to show Nigerians the level of work completed so far.

During a tour with NMDPRA CEO Farouk Ahmed and NNPC Board Chairman Pius Akinyelure, Kyari said that while facility repairs were not yet 100% complete, refining operations had begun and would produce straight-run kerosene, diesel and naphtha.

In a statement commemorating the milestone, President Bola Tinubu stated the plant is functioning at 60% or 75,000 barrels per day.

Kyari said, “We are taking you through our plant. This plant is running. Although it is not 100 per cent complete, we are still in the process. Many people think these things are not real. They think real things are not possible in this country. We want you to see that this is real.”

Since some of these goods would be shipped to foreign markets, he said, the reopening of the Warri refinery will help the country become a net exporter of petroleum products.

“Secondly, this plant had three stages; we have started plant one, which we call Area One. It can produce AGO (diesel), kerosene, naphtha, and a blend of crude oil. These are high-grade quality products required in the country, and we may need to export them. So this will give us cash, this company will make money and the promise of Mr President that this country must be a net exporter of petroleum products is already happening. Some of these products will go into the international market.

“Most importantly, I must put on record that Mr President believes that we can get this to work and get them to start and gave us the charge that we must start all three refineries. It’s already happening; we have started the 60,000 barrels per day refinery, and Area One of the Warri refinery is already working. Other plants that would produce PMS are being streamed and they would also come alive.

Mustapha Zarma, the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria’s National Operations Controller, stated that the rivalry in the downstream oil industry will become more fierce.

There will undoubtedly be a further decrease in pricing if the plant begins producing goods in bulk, he stated. This is because the market will ultimately be influenced by market forces and there will be fierce rivalry.

Until recently, none of Nigeria’s publicly owned refineries has worked to capacity for years, despite several investments to revive them. The failure of the government to revive them contributed to the high level of national anticipation surrounding the Dangote refinery whose operations appear to have revolutionalised the industry.

The refinery will concentrate on manufacturing and storing essential goods, such as heavy and light naphtha, automotive petrol oil and straight-run kerosene.

The country’s first fully owned refinery, the WRPC, was put into service in 1978 and is situated in Warri, Delta State, Nigeria. It was first built to process 100,000 barrels of crude oil a day, but in 1987 it was updated to process 125,000 barrels.

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Kenya: Consumer inflation rises to 3.0% from 2.8%

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Kenya’s statistics agency said on Tuesday that Kenya’s consumer price inflation increased slightly to 3.0% year-over-year in December from 2.8% the previous month.

According to a release from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, monthly inflation was 0.6%, down from 0.3% in November. Kenya aims to have a medium-term inflation rate of 2.5% to 7.5%.

With inflation under control, Kenya’s central bank said there was an opportunity for looser policy to assist economic development, lowering its benchmark lending rate by a larger-than-expected 75 basis points to 11.25% on December 5.

 

Kenya’s GDP expanded by 5.2% in 2023, up from 4.8% in 2022, thanks to a recovery in agriculture and a modest increase in services. Household consumption accounted for 70% of the growth on the demand side, while services and agriculture accounted for 69% and 23% of the growth, respectively, on the supply side.

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