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Palliatives and funding sources, By Sheriffdeen Tella

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Nigeria has a way of over-glorifying some terms, concepts, or words just like inventing new words for uncommon dictionaries. The reigning words today are ‘subsidy’ and ‘palliatives.’ And, we can also add, to a lesser frequency, taxes, oil theft, dollar or dollar rate, fuel price, and prices of other consumable goods. Even, the World Bank and its allies are trying to catch on the issue of palliatives to force the government to take more foreign loans and the government itself is eying such loans with the justification that it is a quick fix to solving the oil subsidy removal problems.

The question is: does the country need loan to meet the demands of the palliatives? Yes. There is no fund for other things after servicing debts and paying salaries in the legislative and executive arms of government. Money is borrowed to pay civil and public servants, as well as other categories of staff. Former president Muhammadu Buhari’s government economic managers found it most convenient to run the economy on borrowing while funds being generated were siphoned into private pockets and diverted to unproductive projects and programmes. It was the time an individual, an officer in charge of accounting for the inflow and outflow of funds, the Accountant General of the Federation could embezzle over N100bn while the country was begging for less than half of that in the credit market! Where is the man today? I am sure he is not in any jail!

When President Bola Tinubu said that the government has been able to save N400bn on fuel subsidy, some people thought the money was actually available in government covers. That is the money that would have been collected by the fuel subsidy mafia. At least, a large proportion would have gone to them. They should be the one to bail us out now.

If palliative payments would require loans and will be distributed in naira, why do we have to go for foreign loans in foreign currencies? We have used sukuk bonds to construct many roads including the second Niger Bridge. In all requests for the sukuk loans, there was over-subscription. Even the monthly government bonds are oversubscribed. This implies that we have lots of idle funds in this country. Not all the idle funds are stolen though but despite the mop up of cash by the Central Bank of Nigeria during the failed currency design policy, lots of cash were still unaccounted for and looking for investment avenue. With appropriate administrative charges, palliative funds will be raised with ease.

In the last eight years, new moneybags have been created with over N10tn funds that cannot be taken to banks and are looking for safety nets. So, we now need sukuk bonds, not for roads or bridges but to reconstruct devastated human beings. It will even be easy to measure the judicious use of the sukuk bonds as statistics will show reduction in the number of poor Nigerians, the number of new businesses coming up and the employment generated.

Presently, people living in the North thought that all the roads in the South have been reconstructed with the sukuk bonds until they start reading in the papers that the Lagos-Ibadan Expressway, the only major road in the South-West has not been completed till now while those in the South thought all the roads in the North have taken all the sukuk funds until they too start reading of the uncompleted Kaduna-Abuja Road. There are still serious infrastructural deficiencies and the need to continue to work on them cannot be underplayed. But those who are going to enjoy the infrastructure must live first. So, let the sukuk fund go for palliatives.

Any country that spends half of its revenue on servicing and paying foreign loans is in a debt trap. Nigeria is already in a debt trap as it spends about 80 per cent of its revenue on debt servicing. It is a major position of weakness with a large proportion of the population in poverty trap. Wikipedia explains that debt-trap is an international financial relationship where a creditor country or an institution extends debt to a nation partially or solely, to increase the lender’s political leverage. It is a situation in which financial obligations outweigh the ability to repay the loans. What Nigeria should be working out now is how to get out of the debt trap not to further compound it.

In the 1970 and much of the 1980s, three regions of the world were immersed in loan saga. The Latin American countries, most African and Southeast Asian countries. When they got fed up with serial debt repayments with rising interest rates, they formed an alliance and demanded debt relief strategies as a group. Their development became stalled and poverty was everywhere in these regions. The lenders were initially adamant but later succumbed and worked out modality for paying the principal of the loans while the interests were largely and conditionally forgiven. The Latin American and some of the Southeast Asian countries have since exited debt trap and begging for debt relief. They have since fashioned out life without crushing loans and many have become prosperous and economies to reckon with in industrialisation and exports of manufactures. With focus on debt, those countries would have remained poor. Africa, the continent with the richest natural resources, remains the continent with begging pan and beggar-thy-neighbour policies. Nigeria is the chief culprit.

When Nelson Mandela said that if Nigeria gets it right, the whole of Africa would get it right. He was not saying that Nigeria was the best country in Africa but challenging us to show leadership given the population, the volume of high level of human capital and physical natural endowment nature bestows on us, as well as the leadership roles we played in liberating politically suppressed African countries. South Africa, where Mandela comes from (although a global citizen), is an industrialised economy and well diversified. The literacy level is much higher than Nigeria and we know she is part of the G20 or the best 20 countries in the world in terms of industrialisation and economic development. Nigeria is not part of the G7, the most advanced economies; not part of the G20 but has always been a glorified member of ‘the rest of the world’! The Third world economy.

With no partners or coalition to fight for debt forgiveness, Africa is now in bad shape and would have to repay its loans or get under. Many times, God bailed us out with the oil boom, to allow us to use the humongous revenue to exit from debts. Nigeria would have seized the opportunity presented by former president Olusegun Obasanjo when he paid off virtually all our debts before 2007 with forgiveness of the interests. We would have exited the debt conundrum and moved towards industrialisation and sanity but the same Peoples Democratic Party that took us out of debt under Obasanjo returned us there under Goodluck Jonathan.

The All Progressives Congress under Buhari took us into a debt trap. Will the APC under Tinubu take us out of the debt trap? It is possible but I am not sure. There are enough suggestions in literature on how to get out of debt trap. A country has to boost alternatives to foreign borrowing. Domestic mobilisation of funds is such an alternative. It was reported during the past week that the government was able to redeem a $500m bond. Was it done to be able to go into new debt? It should not be.

It is better to overborrow internally than externally. It would be seen as the transformation of an idle fund from state of idleness or inertia to active, employable and judicious state. It is a state of funds from people to the government for judicious use. Given the country’s level of external fund indebtedness, any external organisation ready to give us loans without moratorium on the existing ones, does not wish our economy well. It must have an ulterior motive; an intention to enslave us forever. When the World Bank started dangling the $800m loans after warning the government of the danger that the country is immersed in credit rating, I smelt a rat. The readiness of the World Bank to offer a loan must have also given the American Bank the confidence to come in to offer its ‘financial assistance’ to a country under the crunch of foreign loan. Let’s be careful. Let us return the foreign loan and concentrate on domestic fund mobilisation. Also, let production and consumption go simultaneously.

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Strictly Personal

Let’s merge EAC and Igad, By Nuur Mohamud Sheekh

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In an era of political and economic uncertainty, global crises and diminishing donor contributions, Africa’s regional economic communities (RECs) must reimagine their approach to regional integration.

The East African Community (EAC) and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (Igad), two critical RECs in East Africa and the Horn of Africa have an unprecedented opportunity to join forces, leveraging their respective strengths to drive sustainable peace and development and advance regional economic integration and promote the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

Already, four of the eight Igad member states are also members of the EAC and, with Ethiopia and Sudan showing interest, the new unified bloc would be formidable.

Igad’s strength lies in regional peacemaking, preventive diplomacy, security, and resilience, especially in a region plagued by protracted conflicts, climate challenges, and humanitarian crises. The EAC, on the other hand, has made remarkable strides in economic integration, exemplified by its Customs Union, Common Market, and ongoing efforts toward a monetary union. Combining these comparative advantages would create a formidable entity capable of addressing complex challenges holistically.

Imagine a REC that pairs Igad’s conflict resolution strengths with the EAC’s diplomatic standing and robust economic framework. Member states of both are also contributing troops to peacekeeping missions. Such a fusion would streamline efforts to create a peaceful and economically prosperous region, addressing the root causes of instability while simultaneously promoting trade investment and regional cooperation.

These strengths will be harnessed to deal with inter-state tensions that we are currently witnessing, including between Ethiopia and Somalia over the Somaliland MoU, strained relations between Djibouti and Eritrea, and the continually deteriorating relations between Eritrea and Ethiopia.

The global economy experienced as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, compounded by the Ukraine war and competing global crises, has strained donor countries and reduced financial contributions to multilateral organisations and African RECs. Member states, many of which are grappling with fiscal constraints, are increasingly unable to fill this gap, failing to make timely contributions, which is in turn affecting key mandate areas of Igad and EAC, and staff morale.

A merger between Igad and EAC would alleviate this financial pressure by eliminating redundancies. Shared administrative systems, integrated programmes, and a unified leadership structure would optimise resources, enabling the new REC to achieve more with less. Staff rationalisation, while sensitive, is a necessary step to ensure that limited funds are channelled toward impactful initiatives rather than duplicative overheads.

The African Union (AU) envisions a fully integrated Africa, with RECs serving as the building blocks of the AfCFTA. A unified EAC-Igad entity would become a powerhouse for regional integration, unlocking economies of scale and harmonising policies across a wider geographical and economic landscape.

This merger would enhance the implementation of the AfCFTA by creating a larger, more cohesive market that attracts investment, fosters innovation, and increases competitiveness. By aligning trade policies, infrastructure projects, and regulatory frameworks, the new REC could serve as a model for others, accelerating continental integration.

The road to integration is not without obstacles. Political will, divergent institutional mandates, and the complexity of harmonising systems pose significant challenges. However, these hurdles are surmountable through inclusive dialogue, strong leadership, and a phased approach to integration.

Member states must prioritise the long-term benefits of unity over short-term political considerations. Civil society, the private sector, the youth, and international partners also have a critical role to play in advocating for and supporting this transformative initiative.

The time for EAC and Igad to join forces is now. By merging into a single REC, they would pool their strengths, optimise resources, and position themselves as a driving force for regional and continental integration. In doing so, they would not only secure a prosperous future for their citizens and member states but also advance the broader vision of an integrated and thriving Africa.

As the world grapples with crises, Africa must look inward, embracing the power of unity to achieve its potential. A combined Igad-EAC is the bold step forward that the continent needs.

Nuur Mohamud Sheekh, a diplomatic and geopolitical analyst based in London, is a former spokesperson of the Igad Executive Secretary. X: @NuursViews

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Budgets, budgeting and budget financing, By Sheriffdeen A. Tella, Ph.D.

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The budget season is here again. It is an institutional and desirable annual ritual. Revenue collection and spending at the federal, State and local government levels must be authorised and guided by law. That is what budget is all about. A document containing the estimates of projected revenues from identified sources and the proposed expenditure for different sectors in the appropriate level of government. The last two weeks have seen the delivery of budget drafts to various Houses of Assembly and the promise that the federal government would present its draft budget to the National Assembly.

Do people still look forward to the budget presentation and the contents therein? I am not sure. Citizens have realised that these days, governments often spend money without reference to the approved budget. A governor can just wake up and direct that a police station be built in a location. With no allocation in the budget, the station will be completed in three months. The President can direct from his bathroom that 72 trailers of maize be distributed to the 36 states as palliatives. No budget provision, and no discussion by relevant committee or group.

We still operate with the military mentality. We operated too long under the military and of the five Presidents we have in this democracy, two of them were retired military Heads of State. Between them, they spent 16 years of 25 years of democratic governance. Hopefully, we are done with them physically but not mentally. Most present governors grew up largely under military regimes with the command system. That is why some see themselves as emperor and act accordingly. Their direct staff and commissioners are “Yes” men and women. There is need for disorientation.

The importance of budget in the art of governance cannot be overemphasized. It is one of the major functions of the legislature because without the consideration and authorisation of spending of funds by this arm of government, the executive has no power to start spending money. There is what we refer to as a budget cycle or stages. The budget drafting stage within the purview of the executive arm is the first stage and, followed by the authorisation stage where the legislature discusses, evaluates and tinkers with the draft for approval before presenting it to the President for his signature.

Thereafter, the budget enters the execution phase or cycle where programmes and projects are executed by the executive arm with the legislature carrying out oversight functions. Finally, we enter the auditing phase when the federal and State Auditors verify and report on the execution of the budgets. The report would normally be submitted to the Legislature. Many Auditor Generals have fallen victim at this stage for daring to query the executives on some aspects of the execution in their reports.

A new budget should contain the objectives and achievements of the preceding budget in the introduction as the foundation for the budget. More appropriately, a current budget derives its strength from a medium-term framework which also derives its strength from a national Development Plan or a State Plan. An approved National Plan does not exist currently, although the Plan launched by the Muhammadu Buhari administration is in the cooler. President Tinubu, who is acclaimed to be the architect of the Lagos State long-term Plan seems curiously, disillusioned with a national Plan.

Some States like Oyo and Kaduna, have long-term Plans that serve as the source of their annual budgets. Economists and policymakers see development plans as instruments of salvation for developing countries. Mike Obadan, the former Director General of the moribund Nigeria Centre for Economic and Management Administration, opined that a Plan in a developing country serves as an instrument to eradicate poverty, achieve high rates of economic growth and promote economic and social development.

The Nigerian development plans were on course until the adoption of the World Bank/IMF-inspired Structural Adjustment Programme in 1986 when the country and others that adopted the programme were forced to abandon such plan for short-term stabilisation policies in the name of a rolling plan. We have been rolling in the mud since that time. One is not surprised that the Tinubu administration is not looking at the Buhari Development Plan since the government is World Bank/IMF compliant. It was in the news last week that our President is an American asset and by extension, Nigeria’s policies must be defined by America which controls the Bretton Woods institutions.

A national Plan allows the citizens to monitor quantitatively, the projects and programmes being executed or to be executed by the government through the budgeting procedure. It is part of the definitive measures of transparency and accountability which most Nigerian governments do not cherish. So, you cannot pin your government down to anything.

Budgets these days hardly contain budget performance in terms of revenue, expenditure and other achievements like several schools, hospitals, small-scale enterprises, etc, that the government got involved in successfully and partially. These are the foundation for a new budget like items brought forward in accounting documents. The new budget should state the new reforms or transformations that would be taking place. Reforms like shifting from dominance of recurrent expenditure to capital expenditure; moving from the provision of basic needs programmes to industrialisation, and from reliance on foreign loans to dependence on domestic fund mobilisation for executing the budget.

That brings us to the issue of budget deficit and borrowing. When an economy is in recession, expansionary fiscal policy is recommended. That is, the government will need to spend more than it receives to pump prime the economy. If this is taken, Nigeria has always had a deficit budget, implying that we are always in economic recession. The fact is that even when we had a surplus in our balance of payment that made it possible to pay off our debts, we still had a deficit budget. We are so used to borrowing at the national level that stopping it will look like the collapse of the Nigerian state. The States have also followed the trend. Ordinarily, since States are largely dependent on the federal government for funds, they should promote balanced budget.

The States are like a schoolboy who depends on his parents for school fees and feeding allowance but goes about borrowing from classmates. Definitely, it is the parents that will surely pay the debt. The debt forgiveness mentality plays a major role in the process. Having enjoyed debt forgiveness in the past, the federal government is always in the credit market and does not caution the State governments in participating in the market. Our Presidents don’t feel ashamed when they are begging for debt forgiveness in international forum where issues on global development are being discussed. Not less than twice I have watched the countenance of some Presidents, even from Africa, while they looked at our president with disdain when issues of debt forgiveness for African countries was raised.

In most cases, the government, both at the federal and state cannot show the product of loans, except those lent by institutions like the World Bank or African Development Bank for specific projects which are monitored by the lending institutions. In other cases, the loans are stolen and transferred abroad while we are paying the loans. In some other cases, the loans are diverted to projects other than what the proposal stated. There was a case of loans obtained based on establishing an international car park in the border of the State but diverted to finance the election of a politician in the State. The politician eventually lost the election but the citizens of the State have to be taxed to pay the loan. Somebody as “Nigeria we hail thee”.

Transformation in budgeting should commence subsequently at the State and federal level. Now that local government will enjoy some financial autonomy and therefore budgeting process, they should be legally barred from contracting foreign loans. They have no business participating in the market. They should promote balanced budget where proposed expenditures must equal the expected revenues from federal and internal sources. The State government that cannot mobilise, from records, up to 40 percent of its total budget from IGR should not be supported to contract foreign loans. The States should engage in a balanced budget. The federal government budget should shift away from huge allocations to recurrent expenditure towards capital expenditure for capital formation and within the context of a welfarist state.

Sheriffdeen A. Tella, Ph.D.

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