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Musings From Abroad

Russia’s Wagner rebellion lingers, but what’s in it for Africa?

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There are concerns that the reported revolt of the Russian mercenary— Wagner Group against the state could significantly affect diplomatic relations of some African countries, notably, Mali, the Central African Republic (CAR), and Burkina Faso, amongst others.

Wagner’s head, Yevgeny Prigozhin on Friday accused the Russian army of shelling his fighters. He later released a series of messages from late Friday into Saturday, claiming that he and his mercenary troops had entered the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don and taken control of its military sites.

In reaction, Russian President Vladimir Putin has labelled the Wagner uprising a “stab in the back”, and vowed to punish “traitors”, even as the Russian forces step up to repel the mutiny.

The African dimension of the development is apt as both Mali and the CAR have openly engaged Wagner in their fights against terrorism with Wagner forces stationed on their soil despite contradictory positions by the United Nations, the United States, and France.

Should Mali be worried about fallout? A political analyst quoted by Reuters, Bassirou Doumbia, said “(Wagner’s) presence in Mali is sponsored by the Kremlin and if Wagner is at odds with the Kremlin … naturally Mali will suffer the consequences on the security front.”

Another expert on the subject, Yvan Guichaoua, who is a senior lecturer at the Brussels School of International Studies, said: “(The) exact consequences for Mali really depend on factors largely unknown such as the organisational autonomy of Wagner and their chain of command, and, of course, whether things escalate or not between (Russian President Vladimir) Putin and Wagner.”

Similar circumstances exist in CAR, where the government has been assisted by hundreds of Russian operatives, including several from the Wagner Group, in fighting multiple rebel insurgencies since 2018.

Burkina Faso, another country faced with terrorism, through its defence minister, Colonel Kassoum Coulibaly, last month denied that Wagner forces were on the ground for its fight against terrorism despite reports in Western media.

According to leaked US records, Wagner has operated in at least eight different African countries over the past ten years, including Mali, Libya, and the Central African Republic.

Mali in its part has severed relations, notably with France in recent months to keep up its ties with Russia. Will the Wager revolt inspire a change in diplomatic stands in the continent, particularly with defence ties in the wake of rising anti-France postures in the Sahel? Time will tell as the events unfold.

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Musings From Abroad

Nigeria, China extend $2bn currency swap deal

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A 15 billion yuan ($2 billion) currency-swap arrangement between China and Nigeria has been extended to boost investment and commerce between the two countries.

According to the People’s Bank of China, the agreement is anticipated to strengthen financial cooperation and encourage the wider use of the yuan and naira in bilateral transactions, as reported by Bloomberg and Chinese local media on Friday.

“The agreement is valid for three years and may be renewed upon mutual consent,” the central bank said in a statement.

The bank stated that by lowering reliance on third-party currencies like the US dollar, the currency-swap agreement renewal is expected to strengthen economic linkages, promote investment, and ease cross-border commerce.

When the Central Bank of Nigeria and the People’s Bank of China inked an agreement worth renminbi (RMB) 16 billion (about $2.5 billion) in May 2018, the currency-swap framework was first implemented.

Yi Gang, the former governor of the PBoC, and Godwin Emefiele, the suspended governor of the CBN, signed the deal.

The original agreement was intended to eliminate the need for third-party currencies like the US dollar by giving companies and industries in both nations direct access to the yuan and naira.

“This agreement will provide naira liquidity to Chinese businesses and RMB liquidity to Nigerian businesses respectively, thereby improving the speed, convenience, and volume of transactions between the two countries,” the CBN had said at the time of the signing.

To promote flexible and varied regional monetary and financial cooperation, including local currency swaps, to ease commerce between the two countries, President Bola Tinubu and President Xi Jinping of China met in September.

The leaders also talked about how currency-swap programs contribute to global financial stability.

Nigeria and China agreed to strengthen international collaboration on financial intelligence, emphasizing anti-money laundering and fighting the funding of terrorism, since commerce between the two nations makes up around 30% of Nigeria’s total trade.

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Musings From Abroad

World Bank suspends loan fees for impoverished countries

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To lower borrowing costs for vulnerable nations, the World Bank has announced the elimination of several loan fees. The action is a component of larger initiatives to increase financial capacity and tackle pressing global issues including inequality, climate change, and economic instability.

This was revealed by the international bank in a statement on Wednesday. The bank has extended its lowest pricing to tiny, fragile nations, removed the prepayment cost on International Bank for Reconstruction and Development loans, and instituted a grace period for commitment fees on undisbursed amounts.

“The bank is working hard to make it easier for countries to borrow and to pay back their loans more easily by removing some fees on IBRD loans,” the financial institution stated.

The financier claims that these adjustments are intended to relieve the financial strain on countries that require development funding the most.

“These measures are designed to make borrowing easier and more affordable for countries facing significant challenges,” the bank said. It added that the reforms align with its vision of building a “better, more efficient, and bigger” institution capable of addressing overlapping global crises.

The World Bank’s larger financial reforms, which include fee eliminations, are intended to boost lending capacity by $150 billion over the next ten years.

As part of the changes, the IBRD’s equity-to-loans ratio was lowered from 20% to 18%, allowing for an additional $70 billion in lending over ten years.

According to the statement, $1 billion was obtained through a guarantee from the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, and an additional $10 billion has been released through bilateral guarantees.

“The adjustments to our capital framework reflect our commitment to scaling up resources while maintaining financial stability,” the bank said.

The international lender highlighted that these adjustments are essential to tackling the billions of dollars that are required each year to help fragile governments, fight climate change, and advance digital inclusion.

It did concede, nevertheless, that states and multilateral organisations are insufficient to discharge these financial obligations on their own.

The Bank has created a Framework for Financial Incentives to close the gap, promoting investments in cross-border issues like pandemic prevention, energy access, water security, and biodiversity.

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