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Strictly Personal

The international politics of observing elections, By Owei Lakemfa

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The 2023 Nigeria presidential and National Assembly elections were contentious and controversial, with some calling for their outright cancellation. While we all have our views, none of which should be discountenanced, I find it curious that some quote the reports of international election observers, as if they contained the gospel truth. As one who has officially and unofficially observed elections in Africa, Europe and Latin America, I suggest to those relying on such reports to do so with the consciousness that observing elections is not value-free.

International election monitors or observers are not tourists interested in wildlife, sunbathing or visting historic or iconic sites; they are politically conscious people on a mission. They are educated people who can observe the same events but have different interpretations and conclusions, depending on their motives.

Sometimes, as in the Nigerian election, some observers behave like active actors who feel entitled to magisterial declarations and actions. For instance, the European Union  Election Observation Mission, which had 110 observers from 25 member states, Canada, Norway and Switzerland, suggestively, titled its preliminary report: “Elections held on schedule, but lack of transparency and operational failures reduced trust in the process and challenged the right to vote.” It virtually wrote off the elections for an alleged “lack of transparency.”

Internationally, national electoral bodies announce election results, which are the only results permissible, unless otherwise decided by the courts. In emphasising this a day after the elections, the Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Professor Mahmoud Yakubu, said on television that all organisations should “draw their figures (election results) only from the official results released by the commission as the only body constitutionally responsible for releasing official election figures.”

But the EU would not obey such a basic rule. One day after Yakubu’s statement, and two days before INEC’s official results were announced, the EU, in its public report, announced that: “Yiaga (a local observer group) is conducting a parallel vote tabulation for the presidential election.” In line with this announcement, YIAGA announced its own presidential election results different from those of INEC. After INEC announced that the All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate, Bola Ahmed Tinubu scored 36.6% or 8.79 million votes; the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate, Atiku Abubakar scored 29.1% or 6.98 million votes, and the Labour Party (LP) candidate, Peter Obi scored 25.4% or 6.1 million votes, YIAGA cheekily announced its own results. It declared that: “Yiaga Africa’s statistical analysis shows that the All Progressives Congress, APC, should receive between 34.4 per cent and 37.4 per cent of the vote, Labour Party, LP should receive between 24.2 per cent and 28.4 per cent of the votes, the New Nigeria People’s Party, NNPP, should receive between 4.6 per cent and 6.4 per cent of the vote, Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, should receive between 28.3 per cent and 31.1 per cent of the vote, while no other political party should receive more than 0.3 per cent of the vote.”

The Commonwealth Observer Group led by former South African President Thabo Mbeki, followed a different approach from the EU. It said: “Notwithstanding the shortcomings identified in these elections, Nigerians were largely accorded the right to vote. …We call on all those with grievances to address disputes through prescribed legal channels.”

The AU report reflected what we witnessed in the field. So also did that of the Nigerian Electoral Mission headed by former Head of the Interim Government, Chief Ernest Shonekan. But the Commonwealth Observer Mission, headed by former Military Head of State, retired General Abdulsalam Abubakar, issued a contrary report. It was one that must have been written before the elections, in accordance with the Commonwealth decision to use it as an excuse to expel Zimbabwe from its membership.

In contrast to the Commonwealth, the joint report of the American International Republican Institute (IRI) and the National Democratic Institute (NDI) contained blistering attacks: “the elections still fell well short of Nigerian citizens’ legitimate and reasonable expectations. Failures of logistics, challenges with voter registration and voter card distribution, inadequate communication by INEC, lack of transparency in the publication of election data, and unchecked political violence before and during the elections overshadowed incremental administrative gains achieved in the pre-election period, and impeded a substantial number of citizens from participating in voting.”

The joint report of the AU and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) is a contrast to that of the Americans. They called on: “political parties and their candidates to settle electoral disputes through peaceful means and dialogue, in accordance with the law.”

These reports remind me of the 2002 Presidential Elections in Zimbabwe, in which I was part of the AU Election Observer Team. Daily, we went out with other international observers and in the evenings, compared notes. We all had the same reports, which showed that there was no voter intimidation, no violence, the elections were smooth and reflected the will of the Zimbabwean people. Where the opposition felt that there were some voters left out, it went to court in the evening of the elections and a judge added one extra day of voting, with which the electoral body complied.

The AU report reflected what we witnessed in the field. So also did that of the Nigerian Electoral Mission headed by former Head of the Interim Government, Chief Ernest Shonekan. But the Commonwealth Observer Mission, headed by former Military Head of State, retired General Abdulsalam Abubakar, issued a contrary report. It was one that must have been written before the elections, in accordance with the Commonwealth decision to use it as an excuse to expel Zimbabwe from its membership. Reading this body language, Zimbabwe under President Robert Mugabe decided to leave the Commonwealth.

Generally, there are security implications in observing elections because accredited persons would have access to voting areas and, possibly, collation centres where a people would be defining or determining the future of their country.

So, should countries like Nigeria simply stamp the passports of election observers or would it be democratic to screen them and decide which should be given visas and whose visa applications should be rejected?

We should ask ourselves why countries or organisations would decide to invest in our elections. Perhaps the AU coming to observe Nigerian elections would be like some peer review mechanism. It can be understandable for the ECOWAS to send an observer team as solidarity with the Nigerian state. But why would numerous observers travel from across the world to observe Nigeria elections – as guardians of democracy?

We should ask ourselves why countries or organisations would decide to invest in our elections. Perhaps the AU coming to observe Nigerian elections would be like some peer review mechanism. It can be understandable for the ECOWAS to send an observer team as solidarity with the Nigerian state. But why would numerous observers travel from across the world to observe Nigeria elections – as guardians of democracy?

Why would they spend huge sums of money funding multiple local groups to observe the same elections they are coming to observe? It cannot be that they do not trust the locals they are funding.

We should also be curious why countries like China and India, who make up 36% of world population are not so active in observing elections, at least in Africa.

International observers come, make their observation and fly out, leaving the locals to their fate; many are birds of passage who perch for some days and fly away to other areas of interest.

Africans should welcome international election observers, but not as missionaries like in the pre-colonial days, but as interested parties from whom we have nothing to hide.

Owei Lakemfa, a former secretary general of African workers, is a human rights activist, journalist and author.

 

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Strictly Personal

Budgets, budgeting and budget financing, By Sheriffdeen A. Tella, Ph.D.

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The budget season is here again. It is an institutional and desirable annual ritual. Revenue collection and spending at the federal, State and local government levels must be authorised and guided by law. That is what budget is all about. A document containing the estimates of projected revenues from identified sources and the proposed expenditure for different sectors in the appropriate level of government. The last two weeks have seen the delivery of budget drafts to various Houses of Assembly and the promise that the federal government would present its draft budget to the National Assembly.

Do people still look forward to the budget presentation and the contents therein? I am not sure. Citizens have realised that these days, governments often spend money without reference to the approved budget. A governor can just wake up and direct that a police station be built in a location. With no allocation in the budget, the station will be completed in three months. The President can direct from his bathroom that 72 trailers of maize be distributed to the 36 states as palliatives. No budget provision, and no discussion by relevant committee or group.

We still operate with the military mentality. We operated too long under the military and of the five Presidents we have in this democracy, two of them were retired military Heads of State. Between them, they spent 16 years of 25 years of democratic governance. Hopefully, we are done with them physically but not mentally. Most present governors grew up largely under military regimes with the command system. That is why some see themselves as emperor and act accordingly. Their direct staff and commissioners are “Yes” men and women. There is need for disorientation.

The importance of budget in the art of governance cannot be overemphasized. It is one of the major functions of the legislature because without the consideration and authorisation of spending of funds by this arm of government, the executive has no power to start spending money. There is what we refer to as a budget cycle or stages. The budget drafting stage within the purview of the executive arm is the first stage and, followed by the authorisation stage where the legislature discusses, evaluates and tinkers with the draft for approval before presenting it to the President for his signature.

Thereafter, the budget enters the execution phase or cycle where programmes and projects are executed by the executive arm with the legislature carrying out oversight functions. Finally, we enter the auditing phase when the federal and State Auditors verify and report on the execution of the budgets. The report would normally be submitted to the Legislature. Many Auditor Generals have fallen victim at this stage for daring to query the executives on some aspects of the execution in their reports.

A new budget should contain the objectives and achievements of the preceding budget in the introduction as the foundation for the budget. More appropriately, a current budget derives its strength from a medium-term framework which also derives its strength from a national Development Plan or a State Plan. An approved National Plan does not exist currently, although the Plan launched by the Muhammadu Buhari administration is in the cooler. President Tinubu, who is acclaimed to be the architect of the Lagos State long-term Plan seems curiously, disillusioned with a national Plan.

Some States like Oyo and Kaduna, have long-term Plans that serve as the source of their annual budgets. Economists and policymakers see development plans as instruments of salvation for developing countries. Mike Obadan, the former Director General of the moribund Nigeria Centre for Economic and Management Administration, opined that a Plan in a developing country serves as an instrument to eradicate poverty, achieve high rates of economic growth and promote economic and social development.

The Nigerian development plans were on course until the adoption of the World Bank/IMF-inspired Structural Adjustment Programme in 1986 when the country and others that adopted the programme were forced to abandon such plan for short-term stabilisation policies in the name of a rolling plan. We have been rolling in the mud since that time. One is not surprised that the Tinubu administration is not looking at the Buhari Development Plan since the government is World Bank/IMF compliant. It was in the news last week that our President is an American asset and by extension, Nigeria’s policies must be defined by America which controls the Bretton Woods institutions.

A national Plan allows the citizens to monitor quantitatively, the projects and programmes being executed or to be executed by the government through the budgeting procedure. It is part of the definitive measures of transparency and accountability which most Nigerian governments do not cherish. So, you cannot pin your government down to anything.

Budgets these days hardly contain budget performance in terms of revenue, expenditure and other achievements like several schools, hospitals, small-scale enterprises, etc, that the government got involved in successfully and partially. These are the foundation for a new budget like items brought forward in accounting documents. The new budget should state the new reforms or transformations that would be taking place. Reforms like shifting from dominance of recurrent expenditure to capital expenditure; moving from the provision of basic needs programmes to industrialisation, and from reliance on foreign loans to dependence on domestic fund mobilisation for executing the budget.

That brings us to the issue of budget deficit and borrowing. When an economy is in recession, expansionary fiscal policy is recommended. That is, the government will need to spend more than it receives to pump prime the economy. If this is taken, Nigeria has always had a deficit budget, implying that we are always in economic recession. The fact is that even when we had a surplus in our balance of payment that made it possible to pay off our debts, we still had a deficit budget. We are so used to borrowing at the national level that stopping it will look like the collapse of the Nigerian state. The States have also followed the trend. Ordinarily, since States are largely dependent on the federal government for funds, they should promote balanced budget.

The States are like a schoolboy who depends on his parents for school fees and feeding allowance but goes about borrowing from classmates. Definitely, it is the parents that will surely pay the debt. The debt forgiveness mentality plays a major role in the process. Having enjoyed debt forgiveness in the past, the federal government is always in the credit market and does not caution the State governments in participating in the market. Our Presidents don’t feel ashamed when they are begging for debt forgiveness in international forum where issues on global development are being discussed. Not less than twice I have watched the countenance of some Presidents, even from Africa, while they looked at our president with disdain when issues of debt forgiveness for African countries was raised.

In most cases, the government, both at the federal and state cannot show the product of loans, except those lent by institutions like the World Bank or African Development Bank for specific projects which are monitored by the lending institutions. In other cases, the loans are stolen and transferred abroad while we are paying the loans. In some other cases, the loans are diverted to projects other than what the proposal stated. There was a case of loans obtained based on establishing an international car park in the border of the State but diverted to finance the election of a politician in the State. The politician eventually lost the election but the citizens of the State have to be taxed to pay the loan. Somebody as “Nigeria we hail thee”.

Transformation in budgeting should commence subsequently at the State and federal level. Now that local government will enjoy some financial autonomy and therefore budgeting process, they should be legally barred from contracting foreign loans. They have no business participating in the market. They should promote balanced budget where proposed expenditures must equal the expected revenues from federal and internal sources. The State government that cannot mobilise, from records, up to 40 percent of its total budget from IGR should not be supported to contract foreign loans. The States should engage in a balanced budget. The federal government budget should shift away from huge allocations to recurrent expenditure towards capital expenditure for capital formation and within the context of a welfarist state.

Sheriffdeen A. Tella, Ph.D.

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Strictly Personal

African Union must ensure Sudan civilians are protected, By Joyce Banda

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The war in Sudan presents the world – and Africa – with a test. This far, we have scored miserably. The international community has failed the people of Sudan. Collectively, we have chosen to systematically ignore and sacrifice the Sudanese people’s suffering in preference of our interests.

For 18 months, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have fought a pitiless conflict that has killed thousands, displaced millions, and triggered the world’s largest hunger crisis.

Crimes against humanity and war crimes have been committed by both parties to the conflict. Sexual and gender-based violence are at epidemic levels. The RSF has perpetrated a wave of ethnically motivated violence in Darfur. Starvation has been used as a weapon of war: The SAF has carried out airstrikes that deliberately target civilians and civilian infrastructure.

The plight of children is of deep concern to me. They have been killed, maimed, and forced to serve as soldiers. More than 14 million have been displaced, the world’s largest displacement of children. Millions more haven’t gone to school since the fighting broke out. Girls are at the highest risk of child marriage and gender-based violence. We are looking at a child protection crisis of frightful proportions.

In many of my international engagements, the women of Sudan have raised their concerns about the world’s non-commitment to bring about peace in Sudan.

I write with a simple message. We cannot delay any longer. The suffering cannot be allowed to continue or to become a secondary concern to the frustrating search for a political solution between the belligerents. The international community must come together and adopt urgent measures to protect Sudanese civilians.

Last month, the UN’s Independent International Fact-Finding Mission for Sudan released a report that described a horrific range of crimes committed by the RSF and SAF. The report makes for chilling reading. The UN investigators concluded that the gravity of its findings required a concerted plan to safeguard the lives of Sudanese people in the line of fire.

“Given the failure of the warring parties to spare civilians, an independent and impartial force with a mandate to safeguard civilians must be deployed without delay,” said Mohamed Chande Othman, chair of the Fact-Finding Mission and former Chief Justice of Tanzania.

We must respond to this call with urgency.

A special responsibility resides with the African Union, in particular the AU Commission, which received a request on June 21 from the AU Peace and Security Council (PSC) “to investigate and make recommendations to the PSC on practical measures to be undertaken for the protection of civilians.”

So far, we have heard nothing.

The time is now for the AU to act boldly and swiftly, even in the absence of a ceasefire, to advance robust civilian protection measures.

A physical protective presence, even one with a limited mandate, must be proposed, in line with the recommendation of the UN Fact-Finding Mission. The AU should press the parties to the conflict, particularly the Sudanese government, to invite the protective mission to enter Sudan to do its work free from interference.

The AU can recommend that the protection mission adopt targeted strategies operations, demarcated safe zones, and humanitarian corridors – to protect civilians and ensure safe, unhindered, and adequate access to humanitarian aid.

The protection mission mandate can include data gathering, monitoring, and early warning systems. It can play a role in ending the telecom blackout that has been a troubling feature of the war. The mission can support community-led efforts for self-protection, working closely with Sudan’s inspiring mutual-aid network of Emergency Response Rooms. It can engage and support localised peace efforts, contributing to community-level ceasefire and peacebuilding work.

I do not pretend that establishing a protection mission in Sudan will be easy. But the scale of Sudan’s crisis, the intransigence of the warring parties, and the clear and consistent demands from Sudanese civilians and civil society demand that we take action.

Many will be dismissive. It is true that numerous bureaucratic, institutional, and political obstacles stand in our way. But we must not be deterred.

Will we stand by as Sudan suffers mass atrocities, disease, famine, rape, mass displacement, and societal disintegration? Will we watch as the crisis in Africa’s third largest country spills outside of its borders and sets back the entire region?

Africa and the world have been given a test. I pray that we pass it.

Dr Joyce Banda is a former president of the Republic of Malawi.

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