Strictly Personal

How Ghana, Africa’s rising star, ended up in economic turmoil by Kent Mensah

Published

2 years ago

January 3, 2023

Doris Oduro sits at her small, almost-empty store in Odorkor, a suburb of Ghana’s capital, Accra. The single mother of two feels frustrated. After 15 years in business, she is now considering closing because she cannot restock her shop due to the high cost of living.

“I am running at a big loss,” Oduro, 38, told Al Jazeera. She sells imported items, including juices, biscuits, soft drinks, toiletries and sweets, but Ghana’s economic crisis is taking a huge toll on her business.

“Prices of goods keep soaring, and it is affecting my principal capital,” she said. “I want to close my store and find something else to do. Things are tough for me because I can’t sustain the business and I have a family to keep.”

Ghana, a country once described as Africa’s shining star by the World Bank, had the world’s fastest-growing economy in 2019 after it doubled its economic growth. But today, it is no longer the economic poster boy of West Africa. Despite being a major cocoa and gold exporter, it is currently battling its worst financial crisis in decades with inflation hovering at a record 50.3 percent, the highest in 21 years.

Ghana’s economic successes were in the limelight when the new government of President Nana Akufo-Addo took power in January 2017 and brought down inflation significantly. Under the previous government in 2016, it was 15.4 percent, and it fell to 7.9 percent by the end of 2019 and remained in single digits until the pandemic hit in March 2020.

Ghana’s budget deficit, which was about 6.5 percent of the nation’s gross domestic product before Akufo-Addo’s government came to power, was brought down to under 5 percent of GDP by the end of 2019.

“The growth that we experienced around 2017 to 2019 was actually coming from the oil sector,” Daniel Anim Amarteye, an economist with the Accra-based Policy Initiative for Economic Development, told Al Jazeera.

“We were so excited that the economy was growing, but we couldn’t devise strategies to ensure that the growth reflects in the other sectors of the economy,” he said. “For instance, we neglected the agriculture sector, and we couldn’t do any meaningful value-added investment in that sector. The government became complacent.”

According to the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization, agriculture represents 21 percent of Ghana’s GDP and accounts for more than 40 percent of its export earnings. At the same time, it provides more than 90 percent of the food the country needs.

“Over the years, the government failed to invest in increasing output in the agricultural sector that will eventually lead to economic growth and transformation and food security. We are a major cocoa growing country, but we didn’t pay attention to increasing yields to translate into more foreign exchange earnings to drive economic growth and employment,” Amarteye said.

Ghanaian traders, who contribute significantly to the economy, mostly buy and sell products they import from Western countries and China, including home appliances, consumables, cars and second-hand clothes. Due to the nature of their businesses, there is a persistent strong demand for the US dollar to pay for imports. This led to the continuous depreciation of the local currency, the cedi, which was recently described as the worst-performing on world markets.

As inflation surges, rising prices keep the cost of living accelerating for Ghanaians.

“Things are not the same anymore,” said Francis Anim, a vehicle spare parts importer. “I used to spend $5 a day with my wife and child on food alone early this year. Now we spend close to $10 [for the same amount of food]. Why?”

“We are feeling the heat,” he said. “The import duties are very high at the ports, so we have to pass on that burden to retailers, and eventually the consumer suffers. This has resulted in a high cost of living in Ghana, and the economy is not helping us either.”

A nation in crisis

The president conceded in a recent address to the nation that the West African country is in crisis. He blamed the situation on external shocks – the pandemic and Russia-Ukraine war.

However, analysts say the government took certain political and economic decisions that would have eventually exposed the weaknesses in the system even without those external factors.

For instance, to fulfil one of Akufo-Addo’s most expensive campaign pledges, his government launched a free education programme in public high schools nine months after he took office. It also provided free meals to students at primary and secondary levels.

Also in 2017, the governing New Patriotic Party scrapped what it called 15 “nuisance taxes”. These included the 17.5 percent value added tax on financial services, real estate and selected imported medicines. They also reduced import duties on spare car parts, abolished the 1 percent special import levy and the 17.5 percent VAT on domestic airline tickets.

“This brought a massive reduction in government revenue,” Williams Kwasi Peprah, a Ghanaian associate professor of finance at Andrews University in Michigan, told Al Jazeera. “To make up for the revenue shortfall, the government adopted borrowing. This increased Ghana’s bond market activities domestically and externally and, as a result, a high debt-to-GDP exposure, leading to the current debt unsustainability levels.”

From August 2017 to December 2018, Akufo-Addo’s government spent more than $2.1bn on what it called the “banking sector clean-up”.

The central bank said some banks were insolvent and were operating on life support, putting the interests of depositors at risk. The clean-up saw a reduction in the number of banks from 33 to 23 while more than 340 other financial institutions, such as savings and loans companies, had their licences revoked.

The government aimed to restore confidence and reposition the banking sector to support economic growth.

“The financial sector clean-up also cost the country more than anticipated in attaining a robust financial sector before 2022,” Peprah said.

He said the discovery of two more oilfields in 2019 led to the anticipation of more revenues. The government responded by issuing more domestic and external bonds, increasing its debt and raising spending on interest payments, social programmes and employment.

The government is Ghana’s largest employer, primarily in the fields of education, healthcare and security. It spends almost half of its budget on wages; this year, it raked in $8.2bn in estimated revenue and used about $4.2bn to pay salaries of public sector workers.

In 2017, the government also restored allowances for trainee nurses and teachers. President John Mahama lost to Akufo-Addo in the 2016 election partly for suspending those allowances two years earlier. They put a huge strain on the public purse. For the nurses’ allowances alone, the government paid more than $2.5 million annually.

“That was a poor political and economic decision the Akufo-Addo government made at that time because the country was faced with revenue challenges,” said Kwasi Yirenkyi, a financial analyst with Accra-based Data Crunchers. “The government was spending more than it was receiving, and at the same time, it failed to widen the tax net. We were slowly heading for disaster.”

The pandemic and debt load

There was a significant drop in revenue in 2020 coupled with a rise in government expenditures. They were mainly COVID-related as the government adopted a populist approach, provided free water and electricity to citizens and fed 470,000 households during a three-week lockdown that cost the nation $9.4m.

In August 2021 Akufo-Addo began what he later admitted was “an overly ambitious” construction project of 111 hospitals with an estimated price tag of more than $1bn. Pressure kept mounting on his government to fulfil a plethora of other electoral promises, such as the construction of roads, schools and markets, forcing the government to keep borrowing and leaving an economy dogged by high public debt. The most recent data released by the central bank put the country’s debt load at $48.9bn as of September. That represents 76 percent of GDP.

“Largely, the debt that we accrued were not actually prudently used to drive economic growth,” Amarteye said. “If that was done, we could have generated sufficient inflow to be able to meet repayment obligations. Borrowing is not a bad thing, but how you use it is critical. On our part, the managers of the economy failed to invest it in the critical sectors of the economy.”

The oil-exporting country produced 39.15 million barrels of crude oil from January to September, according to the 2023 budget statement read by Finance Minister Ken Ofori-Atta in Parliament in November. They brought in $873.25m in revenues for the eighth-largest oil producer in Africa. Although oil production declined between January and June, according to a report by the Public Interest and Accountability Committee, a surge in prices resulted in the government taking in more revenue than it had expected.

“Where did all the oil revenue go to?” opposition member of parliament Isaac Adongo asked. “The economy has been on life-support system because this government kept borrowing. We have now hit the ceiling, and there is no way out.”

In spite of the challenges, the government had been optimistic that the economy would bounce back after the pandemic. However, Russia’s war in Ukraine has derailed Ghana’s economic recovery. The cedi, its currency, lost more than 50 percent of its value between January and October 2022, causing Ghana’s debt burden to rise by $6bn.

“The war affected global economies and exposed fundamental weaknesses,” Peprah said. “Within a short period, prices in Ghana had increased, leading to hyperinflation and currency devaluation affecting both macro and micro levels of the economy. The Bank of Ghana did not have the needed dollars to pay for the country’s commitments. The balance of payment had deteriorated, leading Ghana to insolvency.”

Workers and traders protested from July to September over price hikes, which have increased the cost of electricity by 27 percent and water by 22 percent.

Activists and anti-corruption campaigners have also accused the government of mismanaging public finances.

“We have gold, oil and cocoa, yet we’re still foundering as a nation,” said Bernard Mornah, a leading member of the Arise Ghana pressure group. “The level of corruption under this government is unprecedented. There are so many revenue loopholes that must be blocked. Government officials are looting state funds and assets, so how do we develop?”

A 2021 Transparency International study on perceptions of corruption in Africa ranked Ghana ninth out of 49 Sub-Saharan African countries.

Investor confidence dims

Investors began to lose confidence in the economy as the government grappled with liquidity challenges. They started moving their money out of Ghana. In May, Minister Ofori-Atta introduced an unpopular e-levy, which placed a 1.5 percent tax on all electronic and merchant payments, bank transfers and remittances as part of measures to increase revenue. It brought in a paltry 10 percent of its targeted amount in its first month.

In the middle of this economic storm, credit ratings firms such as Moody’s downgraded Ghana to junk status, pushing even more investors away. At this point, Ghana was forced in July to turn to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for relief.

It was a difficult decision for Akufo-Addo to make after he had condemned his predecessor for mismanaging the economy and taking an IMF bailout.

In December, the government reached an agreement with the IMF for a $3bn loan. However, the West African country needs to carry out a comprehensive debt restructuring in order to receive the funds. This means that Ghana will have to renegotiate the terms of its debt with its creditors, including extending repayment period, lowering the interest rate, or reducing the overall balance owed.

Formerly regarded as an investor favourite, Ghana has also suspended payments on part of its foreign debt to preserve the fast-depleting international reserve of the central bank. There is also a freeze in hiring into the public sector among many other measures taken to cut expenditure.

“The story would have been different but for the pandemic and the Russia war in Ukraine,” Deputy Finance Minister Abena Osei-Asare said. “We have instituted clear policies to return to economic growth. We are very hopeful the economy will bounce back.”

The economy has made some gains since Ghana reached the agreement with the IMF. The cedi is recovering against the US dollar, appreciating by 63.7 percent in mid-December, according to the Bank of Ghana, after suffering a year-to-date depreciation of 54.2 percent at the end of November. But economists and scholars such as Peprah believe the long-term solution is for the government to live within its means.

“The solution to the current problem is for the government to reduce expenditure and increase revenue,” Peprah said. “It needs to ensure efficient and effective allocation of resources backed by accountability.”

For his part, Amarteye said the government must be downsized, and he called for stringent measures to check corruption.

“We have to ensure that every cedi that is extended to government agencies are accounted for,” Amarteye said. “The Office of the Special Prosecutor should be empowered to be able to deal with corruption in the system. There should be fiscal discipline, and also we have to add value to our produce by supporting the private sector to lead that particular space.”

“If that is done, jobs will be created and also the economy will bounce back,” he said.

In Odorkor, shop-owner Oduro, like many Ghanaians, wants to see a thriving economy again, one in which she can do business and feed her family.

“I have played my part as a voter,” she said. “The government must play its part too – fix the economy. This is not the Ghana we came to meet.”

Strictly Personal

Let’s merge EAC and Igad, By Nuur Mohamud Sheekh

Published

4 weeks ago

November 27, 2024

Ifeoluwa Dada

In an era of political and economic uncertainty, global crises and diminishing donor contributions, Africa’s regional economic communities (RECs) must reimagine their approach to regional integration.

The East African Community (EAC) and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (Igad), two critical RECs in East Africa and the Horn of Africa have an unprecedented opportunity to join forces, leveraging their respective strengths to drive sustainable peace and development and advance regional economic integration and promote the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

Already, four of the eight Igad member states are also members of the EAC and, with Ethiopia and Sudan showing interest, the new unified bloc would be formidable.

Igad’s strength lies in regional peacemaking, preventive diplomacy, security, and resilience, especially in a region plagued by protracted conflicts, climate challenges, and humanitarian crises. The EAC, on the other hand, has made remarkable strides in economic integration, exemplified by its Customs Union, Common Market, and ongoing efforts toward a monetary union. Combining these comparative advantages would create a formidable entity capable of addressing complex challenges holistically.

Imagine a REC that pairs Igad’s conflict resolution strengths with the EAC’s diplomatic standing and robust economic framework. Member states of both are also contributing troops to peacekeeping missions. Such a fusion would streamline efforts to create a peaceful and economically prosperous region, addressing the root causes of instability while simultaneously promoting trade investment and regional cooperation.

These strengths will be harnessed to deal with inter-state tensions that we are currently witnessing, including between Ethiopia and Somalia over the Somaliland MoU, strained relations between Djibouti and Eritrea, and the continually deteriorating relations between Eritrea and Ethiopia.

The global economy experienced as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, compounded by the Ukraine war and competing global crises, has strained donor countries and reduced financial contributions to multilateral organisations and African RECs. Member states, many of which are grappling with fiscal constraints, are increasingly unable to fill this gap, failing to make timely contributions, which is in turn affecting key mandate areas of Igad and EAC, and staff morale.

A merger between Igad and EAC would alleviate this financial pressure by eliminating redundancies. Shared administrative systems, integrated programmes, and a unified leadership structure would optimise resources, enabling the new REC to achieve more with less. Staff rationalisation, while sensitive, is a necessary step to ensure that limited funds are channelled toward impactful initiatives rather than duplicative overheads.

The African Union (AU) envisions a fully integrated Africa, with RECs serving as the building blocks of the AfCFTA. A unified EAC-Igad entity would become a powerhouse for regional integration, unlocking economies of scale and harmonising policies across a wider geographical and economic landscape.

This merger would enhance the implementation of the AfCFTA by creating a larger, more cohesive market that attracts investment, fosters innovation, and increases competitiveness. By aligning trade policies, infrastructure projects, and regulatory frameworks, the new REC could serve as a model for others, accelerating continental integration.

The road to integration is not without obstacles. Political will, divergent institutional mandates, and the complexity of harmonising systems pose significant challenges. However, these hurdles are surmountable through inclusive dialogue, strong leadership, and a phased approach to integration.

Member states must prioritise the long-term benefits of unity over short-term political considerations. Civil society, the private sector, the youth, and international partners also have a critical role to play in advocating for and supporting this transformative initiative.

The time for EAC and Igad to join forces is now. By merging into a single REC, they would pool their strengths, optimise resources, and position themselves as a driving force for regional and continental integration. In doing so, they would not only secure a prosperous future for their citizens and member states but also advance the broader vision of an integrated and thriving Africa.

As the world grapples with crises, Africa must look inward, embracing the power of unity to achieve its potential. A combined Igad-EAC is the bold step forward that the continent needs.

Nuur Mohamud Sheekh, a diplomatic and geopolitical analyst based in London, is a former spokesperson of the Igad Executive Secretary. X: @NuursViews

Strictly Personal

Budgets, budgeting and budget financing, By Sheriffdeen A. Tella, Ph.D.

Published

1 month ago

November 20, 2024

Ifeoluwa Dada

The budget season is here again. It is an institutional and desirable annual ritual. Revenue collection and spending at the federal, State and local government levels must be authorised and guided by law. That is what budget is all about. A document containing the estimates of projected revenues from identified sources and the proposed expenditure for different sectors in the appropriate level of government. The last two weeks have seen the delivery of budget drafts to various Houses of Assembly and the promise that the federal government would present its draft budget to the National Assembly.

Do people still look forward to the budget presentation and the contents therein? I am not sure. Citizens have realised that these days, governments often spend money without reference to the approved budget. A governor can just wake up and direct that a police station be built in a location. With no allocation in the budget, the station will be completed in three months. The President can direct from his bathroom that 72 trailers of maize be distributed to the 36 states as palliatives. No budget provision, and no discussion by relevant committee or group.

We still operate with the military mentality. We operated too long under the military and of the five Presidents we have in this democracy, two of them were retired military Heads of State. Between them, they spent 16 years of 25 years of democratic governance. Hopefully, we are done with them physically but not mentally. Most present governors grew up largely under military regimes with the command system. That is why some see themselves as emperor and act accordingly. Their direct staff and commissioners are “Yes” men and women. There is need for disorientation.

The importance of budget in the art of governance cannot be overemphasized. It is one of the major functions of the legislature because without the consideration and authorisation of spending of funds by this arm of government, the executive has no power to start spending money. There is what we refer to as a budget cycle or stages. The budget drafting stage within the purview of the executive arm is the first stage and, followed by the authorisation stage where the legislature discusses, evaluates and tinkers with the draft for approval before presenting it to the President for his signature.

Thereafter, the budget enters the execution phase or cycle where programmes and projects are executed by the executive arm with the legislature carrying out oversight functions. Finally, we enter the auditing phase when the federal and State Auditors verify and report on the execution of the budgets. The report would normally be submitted to the Legislature. Many Auditor Generals have fallen victim at this stage for daring to query the executives on some aspects of the execution in their reports.

A new budget should contain the objectives and achievements of the preceding budget in the introduction as the foundation for the budget. More appropriately, a current budget derives its strength from a medium-term framework which also derives its strength from a national Development Plan or a State Plan. An approved National Plan does not exist currently, although the Plan launched by the Muhammadu Buhari administration is in the cooler. President Tinubu, who is acclaimed to be the architect of the Lagos State long-term Plan seems curiously, disillusioned with a national Plan.

Some States like Oyo and Kaduna, have long-term Plans that serve as the source of their annual budgets. Economists and policymakers see development plans as instruments of salvation for developing countries. Mike Obadan, the former Director General of the moribund Nigeria Centre for Economic and Management Administration, opined that a Plan in a developing country serves as an instrument to eradicate poverty, achieve high rates of economic growth and promote economic and social development.

The Nigerian development plans were on course until the adoption of the World Bank/IMF-inspired Structural Adjustment Programme in 1986 when the country and others that adopted the programme were forced to abandon such plan for short-term stabilisation policies in the name of a rolling plan. We have been rolling in the mud since that time. One is not surprised that the Tinubu administration is not looking at the Buhari Development Plan since the government is World Bank/IMF compliant. It was in the news last week that our President is an American asset and by extension, Nigeria’s policies must be defined by America which controls the Bretton Woods institutions.

A national Plan allows the citizens to monitor quantitatively, the projects and programmes being executed or to be executed by the government through the budgeting procedure. It is part of the definitive measures of transparency and accountability which most Nigerian governments do not cherish. So, you cannot pin your government down to anything.

Budgets these days hardly contain budget performance in terms of revenue, expenditure and other achievements like several schools, hospitals, small-scale enterprises, etc, that the government got involved in successfully and partially. These are the foundation for a new budget like items brought forward in accounting documents. The new budget should state the new reforms or transformations that would be taking place. Reforms like shifting from dominance of recurrent expenditure to capital expenditure; moving from the provision of basic needs programmes to industrialisation, and from reliance on foreign loans to dependence on domestic fund mobilisation for executing the budget.

That brings us to the issue of budget deficit and borrowing. When an economy is in recession, expansionary fiscal policy is recommended. That is, the government will need to spend more than it receives to pump prime the economy. If this is taken, Nigeria has always had a deficit budget, implying that we are always in economic recession. The fact is that even when we had a surplus in our balance of payment that made it possible to pay off our debts, we still had a deficit budget. We are so used to borrowing at the national level that stopping it will look like the collapse of the Nigerian state. The States have also followed the trend. Ordinarily, since States are largely dependent on the federal government for funds, they should promote balanced budget.

The States are like a schoolboy who depends on his parents for school fees and feeding allowance but goes about borrowing from classmates. Definitely, it is the parents that will surely pay the debt. The debt forgiveness mentality plays a major role in the process. Having enjoyed debt forgiveness in the past, the federal government is always in the credit market and does not caution the State governments in participating in the market. Our Presidents don’t feel ashamed when they are begging for debt forgiveness in international forum where issues on global development are being discussed. Not less than twice I have watched the countenance of some Presidents, even from Africa, while they looked at our president with disdain when issues of debt forgiveness for African countries was raised.

In most cases, the government, both at the federal and state cannot show the product of loans, except those lent by institutions like the World Bank or African Development Bank for specific projects which are monitored by the lending institutions. In other cases, the loans are stolen and transferred abroad while we are paying the loans. In some other cases, the loans are diverted to projects other than what the proposal stated. There was a case of loans obtained based on establishing an international car park in the border of the State but diverted to finance the election of a politician in the State. The politician eventually lost the election but the citizens of the State have to be taxed to pay the loan. Somebody as “Nigeria we hail thee”.

Transformation in budgeting should commence subsequently at the State and federal level. Now that local government will enjoy some financial autonomy and therefore budgeting process, they should be legally barred from contracting foreign loans. They have no business participating in the market. They should promote balanced budget where proposed expenditures must equal the expected revenues from federal and internal sources. The State government that cannot mobilise, from records, up to 40 percent of its total budget from IGR should not be supported to contract foreign loans. The States should engage in a balanced budget. The federal government budget should shift away from huge allocations to recurrent expenditure towards capital expenditure for capital formation and within the context of a welfarist state.

Sheriffdeen A. Tella, Ph.D.