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Will Buhari Vote For Tinubu? By Lasisi Olagunju

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Muhammadu Buhari started his presidency with “I belong to everybody and I belong to nobody.” Will he end as a nobody’s man? Sometimes, and for some, it is gracious to maintain one’s lane, listen to your own vision, single, unattached. French statesman, Charles de Gaulle, who holds the copyright of “I am a man who belongs to nobody and who belongs to everybody” deeply said on another occasion that “If Joan of Arc had married, she would no longer have been Joan of Arc.” Whatever that means – Joan was 15th century France’s iron lady of war and vision. Immolated at age 19, she had no time for men and marriage and family but she is remembered forever as a saviour of France and its patron saint. Buhari, from what we’ve seen of his years, is no Charles de Gaulle and definitely not Joan of Arc to Nigeria. And after benefiting from a political marriage, can Buhari be neutral, truly non-aligned in the 2023 presidential contest? Will he? If he won’t, where is he?

I will be shocked if I am the only person who wonders where Buhari belongs between PDP’s Atiku Abubakar and APC’s Bola Tinubu, two bosom friends fighting over the president’s seat. You know Atiku’s party and Bola Tinubu’s party and the zero-sum ground they hold. The two were part of a national coalition that made Buhari’s presidency possible in 2015. There are persons who vow that for that reason, undergirded by reasons of region and religion, Atiku may in 2023 get Buhari’s vote or, at worst, get him not to lift a finger for the APC and its Èmi l’ókàn candidate. Very interestingly, Buhari clocked 80 on Saturday and Atiku, candidate of the main opposition party, not only issued a statement to celebrate the APC president, he instructively placed newspaper advertisements for him. So, what is happening?

Two months to a presidential election, Buhari is not canvassing votes for his party; he is asking Nigerians to vote for any candidate they fancy. That is strange. We saw President Barack Obama with candidate Hillary Clinton throughout the Democratic Party’s campaigns of 2016. One newspaper (New Telegraph) reported two days ago that “Tinubu’s men fret over Buhari government’s aloofness.” Reporters hear stories. That was not the first time I had heard of grumbling and rumbling in the ruling party over presidential social distancing in the APC campaigns. I know the Lagos content of the APC and their supporters are wondering why Buhari has refused to be part of their candidate’s globe-trotting campaigns. I know you would say that the president was at the flag-off of the campaigns at the Rwang Pam Township Stadium in Jos on November 15, 2022. Was his presence real – body and spirit? Someone said ‘they’ begged the president not to disgrace ‘them’ by not being physically there. If that is true, his presence, therefore, may be what the Yoruba call gbà jé n sinmi (take, let me rest).

The newspaper report is worth quoting copiously and I am doing so because it appears to tally with what I have heard in low tones in several APC crevices. I quote the report: “I must tell you that the situation that we (Tinubu’s supporters) have found ourselves is that of an abandoned orphan. It’s unfortunate that we have been left in the cold by government that was elected on the platform of our great party, the APC…We are campaigning like an opposition party just jostling for power and not like a party in power, which is very unfortunate. Though we recognise that the president has a busy schedule that would have prevented him from being at many of the rallies of the party, I don’t think he has demonstrated sufficient interest to know the situation of things with the campaign efforts.” The New Telegraph said that its source, “an influential member of the South-West Agenda for Bola Tinubu (SWAGA)” was sad that ministers and other key government officials had been distancing themselves from the campaigns: “The question is, save for the Minister of State for Labour and Employment, Mr. Festus Keyamo, who is one of the spokesmen, how many of the ministers and government officials have openly shown support and solidarity with the campaign since we commenced?” The report, however, quoted Keyamo as declaring that Buhari “is the heart and soul behind the campaign…He wants free and fair elections but he is with Asiwaju more than 100 percent.” He didn’t say anything about Buhari’s men who are not busy like the president but are perpetually absent in the party’s campaign life. Significant here is Keyamo’s friend, Rotimi Amaechi, and similar tendencies in the party. Where are they?

Buhari enjoys being aloof and staying far from the madding crowd. Ironically, it was the madness of that crowd that rescued him in 2015. Today, he is a nobody’s man. What does it mean to be a nobody’s man in this world of ‘help me, I help you?’ Danish singer and songwriter, Tina Dickow, dropped a hint in her love lines with the title ‘Nobody’s Man’: “Take what you want from me/Take what you can/And then hide it somewhere I can’t see/Out of my hands…/Do what it takes to make you feel better/Never forget that you, you’re nobody’s man…” What kind of friend or lover takes what he wants from his partner then hides it where the benefactor “can’t see it” and out of her hands? A friend who saw me struggling with this on Sunday wondered why I was weeping more than the bereaved. He told me: “Did Tinubu not say famously that he was the one who singularly made Buhari president after three disastrous defeats? Let Tinubu now do for himself what he boasted he did for the perpetually unelectable Buhari. He does not need Buhari.” I was tempted to agree with my friend. This is the time for Tinubu’s physician to heal himself and shame the charm of overrated incumbency. Is Tinubu happy not seeing Buhari beside him at his Kaduna and Minna rallies? You are not likely to hear complaints directly from the principal victim because he is a Yoruba man. Wise elders use proxy hands to hunt snakes. Besides, the Yoruba say it is not befitting for an elder to cry for help (Gbà mí gbà mí kò ye àgbàlagbà). More importantly, a chief hunter that comes home with an elephant unaided is the celebrated one. You know the worth of the king of warlords when he captures worthy enemies, muskets and amulets – the ones sewn tight in tiger’s skin and the ugly ones in alligator’s hide.

A rainbow coalition birthed the APC which sired Buhari’s magical presidency. The Jewish Talmud says, “do not throw a stone into the well whose waters you have drunk.” There is a similar saying in Yoruba about water fetchers who do not mind if the stream is polluted after they are done. In day-to-day village dealings, this is wrong; in politics, poisoning the well and the stream may be an act of political goodness. Buhari needs no preacher to tell him that his peace and relevance after a riotous eight years in power depend on who replaces him. The future he envisions for himself and for Nigeria may not align with what he sees around him. If someone dreams of transiting from being a partisan to a real statesman and has read Machiavelli, he will likely say and do what Buhari is up to – refuse to keep friends; refuse to pay back political IOUs; refuse to be mounted to power like a beast of burden; pitch this lion against that lion and set the forest ablaze. Machiavelli in Chapter XV of his ‘The Prince’ says “it is necessary for a prince wishing to hold his own to know how to do wrong, and to make use of it or not according to necessity.” He argues that “if everything is considered carefully, it will be found that something which looks like virtue, if followed, would be his ruin; whilst something else, which looks like vice, yet followed brings him security and prosperity.” A Machiavellian leadership values being practical higher than being morally good. For “if moral goodness is a hindrance to maintaining political power, then a prince must learn how not to be morally good.” And, to the lucky rich who think Buhari owes them for favours of the past and are offended by his rhetoric of enforced fairness in the coming polls, I say sorry.

Is Buhari indebted to any politician in the APC? I recommend a study of the Fulani worldview on luck and fortune and who is destined to use what the lucky acquires. Fortunes spent on making Buhari president for two terms are divinely ordained. He owes the spenders no payback. The Fulani say you are a lucky person (an arsikaadho) when, without hard work, you get whatever you desire, including wealth. For better elucidation, I quote a scholar here: “Luck in this case is a para-natural essence of life, which makes the arsikaadho lucky but not necessarily blessed, in which case the arsikaadho seldom enjoys lasting happiness. What then happens to the fortune obtained by luck? It generally benefits blessed acquaintances. This is what the Fulani mean by ‘ko arsikkadho dhabbhanta barkindho,’ which translates, ‘the lucky accumulates fortunes for the blessed to enjoy.’ “ (See Mohamed Camara. 2008:53: Benediction and Malediction in Fulani Culture. Indigenous Nations Journal, Vol. 6, No. 1). The bullion van people are the ‘lucky’ ones, the arsikaadho; our president is a Fulani, blessed with a destiny to enjoy what the lucky accumulates; he owes no one.

Buhari speaks today as a nobody’s man. Last month after meeting King Charles III in London, the president, in an interview, asked Nigerians to “vote for whoever they like from whichever political party.” A president who said this is not likely to hop from jet to jet campaigning for someone. He has repeatedly promised that he would not be anybody’s fool or tool of interference in the coming polls’ processes. He has said so everywhere he has been in the last couple of months to the sorrow of those banking on presidential sleight of hand to win. I am not surprised that the South-West APC is not at ease at all. They daily read Abuja’s lips and steps and exchange furtive glances. They sigh. Even Buhari’s recent currency change is being seen as a vital component of his war against politics – and against those who won’t succeed him. In the London interview cited above, Buhari vowed that he wouldn’t allow any candidate to intimidate voters or buy them with dirty money. He explained why he approved the introduction of new naira notes: “My aim is to make sure that Nigerians believe that we respect them as an administration…Nobody will be allowed to mobilise resources and thugs to intimidate people in any constituency. That is what I want to go down in Nigerian history for as a leader.” Wahala! Candidates who have mobilized armadas of bullion vans of raw cash for the polls have real reasons to be worried. The old currency notes expire on January 31, 2023 – twenty-five days before the presidential election.

Strictly Personal

African Union must ensure Sudan civilians are protected, By Joyce Banda

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The war in Sudan presents the world – and Africa – with a test. This far, we have scored miserably. The international community has failed the people of Sudan. Collectively, we have chosen to systematically ignore and sacrifice the Sudanese people’s suffering in preference of our interests.

For 18 months, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have fought a pitiless conflict that has killed thousands, displaced millions, and triggered the world’s largest hunger crisis.

Crimes against humanity and war crimes have been committed by both parties to the conflict. Sexual and gender-based violence are at epidemic levels. The RSF has perpetrated a wave of ethnically motivated violence in Darfur. Starvation has been used as a weapon of war: The SAF has carried out airstrikes that deliberately target civilians and civilian infrastructure.

The plight of children is of deep concern to me. They have been killed, maimed, and forced to serve as soldiers. More than 14 million have been displaced, the world’s largest displacement of children. Millions more haven’t gone to school since the fighting broke out. Girls are at the highest risk of child marriage and gender-based violence. We are looking at a child protection crisis of frightful proportions.

In many of my international engagements, the women of Sudan have raised their concerns about the world’s non-commitment to bring about peace in Sudan.

I write with a simple message. We cannot delay any longer. The suffering cannot be allowed to continue or to become a secondary concern to the frustrating search for a political solution between the belligerents. The international community must come together and adopt urgent measures to protect Sudanese civilians.

Last month, the UN’s Independent International Fact-Finding Mission for Sudan released a report that described a horrific range of crimes committed by the RSF and SAF. The report makes for chilling reading. The UN investigators concluded that the gravity of its findings required a concerted plan to safeguard the lives of Sudanese people in the line of fire.

“Given the failure of the warring parties to spare civilians, an independent and impartial force with a mandate to safeguard civilians must be deployed without delay,” said Mohamed Chande Othman, chair of the Fact-Finding Mission and former Chief Justice of Tanzania.

We must respond to this call with urgency.

A special responsibility resides with the African Union, in particular the AU Commission, which received a request on June 21 from the AU Peace and Security Council (PSC) “to investigate and make recommendations to the PSC on practical measures to be undertaken for the protection of civilians.”

So far, we have heard nothing.

The time is now for the AU to act boldly and swiftly, even in the absence of a ceasefire, to advance robust civilian protection measures.

A physical protective presence, even one with a limited mandate, must be proposed, in line with the recommendation of the UN Fact-Finding Mission. The AU should press the parties to the conflict, particularly the Sudanese government, to invite the protective mission to enter Sudan to do its work free from interference.

The AU can recommend that the protection mission adopt targeted strategies operations, demarcated safe zones, and humanitarian corridors – to protect civilians and ensure safe, unhindered, and adequate access to humanitarian aid.

The protection mission mandate can include data gathering, monitoring, and early warning systems. It can play a role in ending the telecom blackout that has been a troubling feature of the war. The mission can support community-led efforts for self-protection, working closely with Sudan’s inspiring mutual-aid network of Emergency Response Rooms. It can engage and support localised peace efforts, contributing to community-level ceasefire and peacebuilding work.

I do not pretend that establishing a protection mission in Sudan will be easy. But the scale of Sudan’s crisis, the intransigence of the warring parties, and the clear and consistent demands from Sudanese civilians and civil society demand that we take action.

Many will be dismissive. It is true that numerous bureaucratic, institutional, and political obstacles stand in our way. But we must not be deterred.

Will we stand by as Sudan suffers mass atrocities, disease, famine, rape, mass displacement, and societal disintegration? Will we watch as the crisis in Africa’s third largest country spills outside of its borders and sets back the entire region?

Africa and the world have been given a test. I pray that we pass it.

Dr Joyce Banda is a former president of the Republic of Malawi.

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Strictly Personal

Economic policies must be local, By Lekan Sote

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With 32.70 per cent headline inflation, 40.20 per cent food inflation, and bread inflation of 45 per cent, all caused by the removal of subsidies from petrol and electricity, and the government’s policy of allowing market forces to determine the value of the Naira, Nigerians are reeling under high cost of living.

 

The observation by Obi Alfred Achebe of Onitsha, that “The wellbeing of the people has declined more steeply in the last months,” leads to doubts about the “Renewed Hope” slogan of President Bola Tinubu’s government that is perceived as extravagant, whilst asking Nigerians to be patient and wait for its unfolding economic policies to mature.

 

It doesn’t look as if it will abate soon, Adebayo Adelabu, Minister of Power, who seems ready to hike electricity tariffs again, recently argued that the N225 per kilowatt hour of electricity that Discos charge Band A premium customers is lower than the N750 and N950 respective costs of running privately-owned petrol or diesel generators.

 

While noting that 129 million, or 56 per cent of Nigerians are trapped below poverty line, the World Bank revealed that real per capita Gross Domestic Product, which disregards the service industry component, is yet to recover from the pre-2016 economic depression under the government of Muhammadu Buhari.

 

This has led many to begin to doubt the government’s World Bank and International Monetary Fund-inspired neo-liberal economic policies that seem to have further impoverished poor Nigerians, practically eliminated the middle class, and is making the rich also cry.

 

Yet the World Bank, which is not letting up, recently pontificated that “previous domestic policy missteps (based mainly on its own advice) are compounding the shocks of rising inflation (that is) eroding the purchasing power of the people… and this policy is pushing many (citizens) into poverty.”

 

It zeroes in by asking Nigeria to stay the gruelling course, which Ibukun Omole thinks “is nothing more than a manifesto for exploitation… a blatant attempt to continue the cycle of exploitation… a tool of imperialism, promoting the same policies that have kept Nigeria under the thumb of… neocolonial agenda for decades.”

 

When Indermilt Gill, Senior Vice President of the World Bank, told the 30th Summit of Nigeria’s Economic Summit Group, in Abuja, Federal Capital Territory, that Nigerians may have to endure the harrowing economic conditions for another 10 to 15 years, attendees murmured but didn’t walk out on him because of Nigerian’s tradition of politeness to guests.

 

Governor Bala Muhammed of Bauchi State, who agrees with the World Bank that “purchasing power has dwindled,” also thinks that “these (World Bank-inspired) policies, usually handed down by arm-twisting compulsions, are not working.”

 

What seems to be trending now is the suggestion that because these neo-liberal policies do not seem to be helping the economy and the citizens of Nigeria, at least in the short term, it would be better to think up homegrown solutions to Nigeria’s economic problems.

 

Late Speaker of America’s House of Representatives, Tip O’Neill, is quoted to have quipped that, at the end of the day, “All politics is local.” He may have come to that conclusion after observing that it takes the locals in a community to know what is best for them.

 

This aphorism must apply to economics, a field of study that is derived from sociology, which is the study of the way of life of a people. Proof of this is in “The Wealth of Nations,” written by Adam Smith, who is regarded as the first scholar of economics.

 

In his Introduction to the Penguin Classics edition of “The Wealth of Nations,” Andrew Skinner observes: “Adam Smith was undoubtedly the remarkable product of a remarkable age and one whose writing clearly reflects the intellectual, social and economic conditions of the period.”

 

To drive the point home that Smith’s book was written for his people and his time, Skinner reiterated that “the general ‘philosophy,’ which it contained was so thoroughly in accord with the aspirations and circumstances of his age.”

 

In a Freudian slip of the Darwinist realities of the Industrial Revolution that birthed individualism, capitalism, and global trade, Smith averred that “How selfish soever man may be supposed, there are evidently some principle in his nature which interest him in the fortune of others, and render their happiness necessary to him, though he derives nothing from it, except the pleasures of seeing it.”

 

And, he let it slip that capitalism is for the advantage of Europe when he confessed that “Europe, by not leaving things at perfect liberty (the so-called Invisible Hand), occasions… inequities,” by “restraining the competition in some trades to a smaller number… increasing it in others beyond what it naturally would be… and… free circulation of labour (or expertise) and stocks (goods) both from employment to employment and from place to place!”

 

Policymakers, who think Bretton Woods institutions will advise policies to replicate the success of the Euro-American economy in Nigeria must be daydreaming. After advising elimination of subsidy, as global best practices that reflect market forces, they failed to suggest that Nigeria’s N70,000 monthly minimum wage, neither reflects the realities of the global marketplace, nor Section 16(2,d) of Nigeria’s Constitution, which suggests a “reasonable national minimum living wage… for all citizens.”

 

After Alex Sienart, World Bank’s lead economist in Nigeria, pointed out that the wage increase will directly affect the lives of only 4.1 per cent of Nigerians, he suggested that Nigeria needed more productive jobs to reduce poverty. But he neither explained “productive jobs,” nor suggested how to create them.

 

In admitting past wrong economic policies that the World Bank recommended for Nigeria, its former President, Jim Yong Kim, confessed, “I think the World Bank has to take responsibility for having emphasized hard infrastructure –roads, rails, energy– for a long time…

 

“There is still the bias that says we will invest in hard infrastructure, and then we grow rich, (and) we will have enough money to invest in health and education. (But) we are now saying that’s the wrong approach, that you’ve got to start investing in your people.”

 

Kim is a Korean-American physician, health expert, and anthropologist, whose Harvard University and Brown University Ivy League background shapes his decidedly “Pax American” worldview of America’s dominance of the world economy.

 

Despite his do-gooder posturing, his diagnoses and prescriptions still did not quite address the root cause of Nigeria’s economic woes, nor provide any solutions. They were mere diversions that stopped short of the way forward.

 

He should have advocated for the massive accumulation of capital and investments in the local production of manufacturing machinery, industrial spare parts, and raw materials—items that are currently imported, weakening Nigeria’s trade balance.

 

He should have pushed for the completion of Ajaokuta Steel Mill and helped to line up investors with managerial, technical, and financial competence to salvage Nigeria’s electricity sector, whose poor run has been described by Dr. Akinwumi Adesina, President of Africa Development Bank, as “killing Nigerian industries.”

 

He could have assembled consultants to accelerate the conversion of Nigeria’s commuter vehicles to Compressed Natural Gas and get banks of the metropolitan economies, that hold Nigeria’s foreign reserves in their vaults, to invest their low-interest funds into Nigeria’s agriculture— so that Nigeria will no longer import foodstuffs.

 

Nigerians need homegrown solutions to their economic woes.

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