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The culture of election debate in Nigeria by Jide Ojo

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According to the International Growth Centre, a global research Centre, “Well-functioning democratic structures and strong political governance are central to economic development. However, a lack of information about elections in younger democracies can weaken the accountability of elected politicians and, consequently, decision-making.” Political information can be difficult to access in developing countries because of fledgling democratic structures and poor media penetration. Citizens may vote for candidates with little knowledge of their policy stances, qualifications, previous performance, or potential remit.  The IGC research in Ghana and Sierra Leone revealed that “voters showed improved awareness of specific candidates, their policies, and general political knowledge for several weeks after viewing a debate.” Furthermore, “participants reported that debates helped inform their choices at the ballot box. They were more likely to vote for candidates who shared their policy priorities and for higher quality candidates.” Election debates are therefore very important for political accountability.

In Nigeria, the culture of election debate has been cultivated since 1999 and is being nurtured by the media and civil society organisations. The Nigeria Elections Debate Group is a coalition of broadcast organisations, civil society organisations, and professional groups who are committed to the deepening of democracy in the country and the entrenching of an enduring democratic culture through organised television debates since the return to democratic rule in 1999. Since then, the group has put together debates to enable the Nigerian electorate to have the opportunity to hear firsthand from aspiring presidential candidates, their intentions and aspirations through an equal opportunity platform. The NEDG has since transformed into a broad based non-partisan, non-profit making organisation with the primary mandate of organising and hosting live televised debates for all presidential, vice presidential, and governorship candidates in Nigeria.

Ahead of the 2023 general elections and even before the official flag-off of campaign period on September 28, 2022, many associations such as the Nigerian Bar Association and Institute of Chartered Accountants of Nigeria have used the opportunity of their annual conventions to invite presidential candidates to the forthcoming general elections to come and talk to their members and by extension, the Nigerian public.

Recall that at the NBA Annual General Meeting, which was held in Lagos in August 2022, the presidential candidates of the Peoples Democratic Party and the Labour Party, Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi respectively, were present at the event. The vice-presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress, Kashim Shettima, was also present to represent the presidential candidate of the party, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu.

While many of the participants hailed the Labour Party candidates during their appearance on August 22, the dressing of Shettima became a needless distraction and an issue, especially on social media with many knocking him for wearing ill-fitted suits and canvas shoes. Of course, this was robustly defended by the APC loyalists.

On October 12, 2022, the presidential candidate of the African Action Congress, Omoyele Sowore, and Obi attended the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Nigeria’s conference in Abuja. Other presidential candidates present were Prof Christopher Imulomen of the Accord Party and Prof Peter Umeadi of the All Progressives Grand Alliance. Tinubu and Atiku were absent. Although the running mate of the PDP and New Nigeria Peoples Party candidates represented their principals at the event.

The first in the series of political debates ahead of the 2023 general elections took place last Sunday, November 6, 2022. It was tagged, “Presidential Town Hall Meeting on Security and Economy.” It was organised by Arise News Channel, in collaboration with Centre for Development and Democracy and other partners, such as the Vanguard, Premium Times, Leadership, Daily Trust, and Nigeria Union of Journalists. At the meeting were Obi; NNPP presidential candidate, Rabiu Kwankwaso; PDP vice-presidential candidate, Ifeanyi Okowa, who stood in for Atiku; and the presidential candidate of the Peoples Redemption Party, Kola Abiola.

I have been interviewed on the outcome of the town hall meeting by no fewer than three media stations, both print and electronic. In fact, I was on Daily Politics with Idayat Hassan, the CDD Executive Director on Monday night on Trust TV to review the debate. Earlier, I had been interviewed by a THISDAY newspaper correspondent and was also on Citizen 93.7 FM Abuja to discuss the inaugural presidential debate. I’m amused by the intrigues and drama that played out during and after the programme. The unruly behaviour of a section of the participants who disrupted the take-off of the programme by over an hour by their shout of “no representation by proxy” is reprehensible. The altercation between Obi and Senator Dino Melaye was also uncalled for. However, it is totally not unexpected that such a high-profile event would take place without some issues.

Most unfortunate is the accusation levelled against the organisers for the replacement of the APC candidate with that of the PRP when the former could not attend or send a representative. The explanation that it was based on the availability of Kola Abiola, and the fact that many other candidates that were approached to take over Tinubu’s slot turned down the offer based on the shortness of time for preparations fell on deaf ears. Some of those who took to social media to call out the organisers wished they were the ones appointed to take Tinubu’s slot and not Abiola. What these critics failed to know is that the organisers reserve the right to invite people based on their discretion. Many have also queried why LP, NNPP, PDP and APC candidates were shortlisted to be the first batch of the candidates to be grilled and drilled at the town hall meeting. They chose to ignore the organiser’s claim that it was based on their online and offline survey conducted ahead of the town hall. Not even the assurances that all the 18 candidates would have equal opportunity to feature at the town hall meetings, albeit in batches, was able to placate the aggrieved.

Truth be told, those who pick holes in the organiser’s methodology and decisions should note that town hall meetings and debates are just a few of the opportunities available to them to sell their candidacy. They can organise rallies, get canvassers to work the phone for them, use billboards, organise road shows, and use political advertisements on radio, television, and social media to market themselves. It is not an aberration or anomaly to have dominant political parties in every democracy. The truth is Nigeria is a de jure multiparty state but de facto a two-party country i.e. APC and PDP. How many Nigerians know that though the Democratic and Republican parties are dominant in the United States, there are indeed 209 state-level ballot-qualified political party affiliates in the US as at December 2021? Likewise, despite the domination of the Conservative and Labour parties in the United Kingdom, how many people are aware that as at August 2, 2019, the Electoral Commission of the UK showed the number of registered political parties in Great Britain and Northern Ireland as 408?

I can safely predict that the next President of Nigeria shall come from any of these three presidential candidates: LP, APC, and PDP. The NNPP candidate will be a beautiful bride to be courted in the event that none of the earlier mentioned three wins on the first ballot. The possibility of a run-off in the 2023 presidential election is very high. This is why I have enjoined the Independent National Electoral Commission to embark on political education on how a winner emerges in an election, especially the presidential election as contained in section 134 of the 1999 Constitution. As for the APC presidential candidate who wished not to participate in any election debate, the electorate will have the final say. By the way, all organisers of election debates should engage sign language interpreters in order to ensure that the deaf is able to follow through with the proceedings.

– Twitter: @jideojong

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Strictly Personal

Let’s merge EAC and Igad, By Nuur Mohamud Sheekh

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In an era of political and economic uncertainty, global crises and diminishing donor contributions, Africa’s regional economic communities (RECs) must reimagine their approach to regional integration.

The East African Community (EAC) and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (Igad), two critical RECs in East Africa and the Horn of Africa have an unprecedented opportunity to join forces, leveraging their respective strengths to drive sustainable peace and development and advance regional economic integration and promote the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

Already, four of the eight Igad member states are also members of the EAC and, with Ethiopia and Sudan showing interest, the new unified bloc would be formidable.

Igad’s strength lies in regional peacemaking, preventive diplomacy, security, and resilience, especially in a region plagued by protracted conflicts, climate challenges, and humanitarian crises. The EAC, on the other hand, has made remarkable strides in economic integration, exemplified by its Customs Union, Common Market, and ongoing efforts toward a monetary union. Combining these comparative advantages would create a formidable entity capable of addressing complex challenges holistically.

Imagine a REC that pairs Igad’s conflict resolution strengths with the EAC’s diplomatic standing and robust economic framework. Member states of both are also contributing troops to peacekeeping missions. Such a fusion would streamline efforts to create a peaceful and economically prosperous region, addressing the root causes of instability while simultaneously promoting trade investment and regional cooperation.

These strengths will be harnessed to deal with inter-state tensions that we are currently witnessing, including between Ethiopia and Somalia over the Somaliland MoU, strained relations between Djibouti and Eritrea, and the continually deteriorating relations between Eritrea and Ethiopia.

The global economy experienced as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, compounded by the Ukraine war and competing global crises, has strained donor countries and reduced financial contributions to multilateral organisations and African RECs. Member states, many of which are grappling with fiscal constraints, are increasingly unable to fill this gap, failing to make timely contributions, which is in turn affecting key mandate areas of Igad and EAC, and staff morale.

A merger between Igad and EAC would alleviate this financial pressure by eliminating redundancies. Shared administrative systems, integrated programmes, and a unified leadership structure would optimise resources, enabling the new REC to achieve more with less. Staff rationalisation, while sensitive, is a necessary step to ensure that limited funds are channelled toward impactful initiatives rather than duplicative overheads.

The African Union (AU) envisions a fully integrated Africa, with RECs serving as the building blocks of the AfCFTA. A unified EAC-Igad entity would become a powerhouse for regional integration, unlocking economies of scale and harmonising policies across a wider geographical and economic landscape.

This merger would enhance the implementation of the AfCFTA by creating a larger, more cohesive market that attracts investment, fosters innovation, and increases competitiveness. By aligning trade policies, infrastructure projects, and regulatory frameworks, the new REC could serve as a model for others, accelerating continental integration.

The road to integration is not without obstacles. Political will, divergent institutional mandates, and the complexity of harmonising systems pose significant challenges. However, these hurdles are surmountable through inclusive dialogue, strong leadership, and a phased approach to integration.

Member states must prioritise the long-term benefits of unity over short-term political considerations. Civil society, the private sector, the youth, and international partners also have a critical role to play in advocating for and supporting this transformative initiative.

The time for EAC and Igad to join forces is now. By merging into a single REC, they would pool their strengths, optimise resources, and position themselves as a driving force for regional and continental integration. In doing so, they would not only secure a prosperous future for their citizens and member states but also advance the broader vision of an integrated and thriving Africa.

As the world grapples with crises, Africa must look inward, embracing the power of unity to achieve its potential. A combined Igad-EAC is the bold step forward that the continent needs.

Nuur Mohamud Sheekh, a diplomatic and geopolitical analyst based in London, is a former spokesperson of the Igad Executive Secretary. X: @NuursViews

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Budgets, budgeting and budget financing, By Sheriffdeen A. Tella, Ph.D.

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The budget season is here again. It is an institutional and desirable annual ritual. Revenue collection and spending at the federal, State and local government levels must be authorised and guided by law. That is what budget is all about. A document containing the estimates of projected revenues from identified sources and the proposed expenditure for different sectors in the appropriate level of government. The last two weeks have seen the delivery of budget drafts to various Houses of Assembly and the promise that the federal government would present its draft budget to the National Assembly.

Do people still look forward to the budget presentation and the contents therein? I am not sure. Citizens have realised that these days, governments often spend money without reference to the approved budget. A governor can just wake up and direct that a police station be built in a location. With no allocation in the budget, the station will be completed in three months. The President can direct from his bathroom that 72 trailers of maize be distributed to the 36 states as palliatives. No budget provision, and no discussion by relevant committee or group.

We still operate with the military mentality. We operated too long under the military and of the five Presidents we have in this democracy, two of them were retired military Heads of State. Between them, they spent 16 years of 25 years of democratic governance. Hopefully, we are done with them physically but not mentally. Most present governors grew up largely under military regimes with the command system. That is why some see themselves as emperor and act accordingly. Their direct staff and commissioners are “Yes” men and women. There is need for disorientation.

The importance of budget in the art of governance cannot be overemphasized. It is one of the major functions of the legislature because without the consideration and authorisation of spending of funds by this arm of government, the executive has no power to start spending money. There is what we refer to as a budget cycle or stages. The budget drafting stage within the purview of the executive arm is the first stage and, followed by the authorisation stage where the legislature discusses, evaluates and tinkers with the draft for approval before presenting it to the President for his signature.

Thereafter, the budget enters the execution phase or cycle where programmes and projects are executed by the executive arm with the legislature carrying out oversight functions. Finally, we enter the auditing phase when the federal and State Auditors verify and report on the execution of the budgets. The report would normally be submitted to the Legislature. Many Auditor Generals have fallen victim at this stage for daring to query the executives on some aspects of the execution in their reports.

A new budget should contain the objectives and achievements of the preceding budget in the introduction as the foundation for the budget. More appropriately, a current budget derives its strength from a medium-term framework which also derives its strength from a national Development Plan or a State Plan. An approved National Plan does not exist currently, although the Plan launched by the Muhammadu Buhari administration is in the cooler. President Tinubu, who is acclaimed to be the architect of the Lagos State long-term Plan seems curiously, disillusioned with a national Plan.

Some States like Oyo and Kaduna, have long-term Plans that serve as the source of their annual budgets. Economists and policymakers see development plans as instruments of salvation for developing countries. Mike Obadan, the former Director General of the moribund Nigeria Centre for Economic and Management Administration, opined that a Plan in a developing country serves as an instrument to eradicate poverty, achieve high rates of economic growth and promote economic and social development.

The Nigerian development plans were on course until the adoption of the World Bank/IMF-inspired Structural Adjustment Programme in 1986 when the country and others that adopted the programme were forced to abandon such plan for short-term stabilisation policies in the name of a rolling plan. We have been rolling in the mud since that time. One is not surprised that the Tinubu administration is not looking at the Buhari Development Plan since the government is World Bank/IMF compliant. It was in the news last week that our President is an American asset and by extension, Nigeria’s policies must be defined by America which controls the Bretton Woods institutions.

A national Plan allows the citizens to monitor quantitatively, the projects and programmes being executed or to be executed by the government through the budgeting procedure. It is part of the definitive measures of transparency and accountability which most Nigerian governments do not cherish. So, you cannot pin your government down to anything.

Budgets these days hardly contain budget performance in terms of revenue, expenditure and other achievements like several schools, hospitals, small-scale enterprises, etc, that the government got involved in successfully and partially. These are the foundation for a new budget like items brought forward in accounting documents. The new budget should state the new reforms or transformations that would be taking place. Reforms like shifting from dominance of recurrent expenditure to capital expenditure; moving from the provision of basic needs programmes to industrialisation, and from reliance on foreign loans to dependence on domestic fund mobilisation for executing the budget.

That brings us to the issue of budget deficit and borrowing. When an economy is in recession, expansionary fiscal policy is recommended. That is, the government will need to spend more than it receives to pump prime the economy. If this is taken, Nigeria has always had a deficit budget, implying that we are always in economic recession. The fact is that even when we had a surplus in our balance of payment that made it possible to pay off our debts, we still had a deficit budget. We are so used to borrowing at the national level that stopping it will look like the collapse of the Nigerian state. The States have also followed the trend. Ordinarily, since States are largely dependent on the federal government for funds, they should promote balanced budget.

The States are like a schoolboy who depends on his parents for school fees and feeding allowance but goes about borrowing from classmates. Definitely, it is the parents that will surely pay the debt. The debt forgiveness mentality plays a major role in the process. Having enjoyed debt forgiveness in the past, the federal government is always in the credit market and does not caution the State governments in participating in the market. Our Presidents don’t feel ashamed when they are begging for debt forgiveness in international forum where issues on global development are being discussed. Not less than twice I have watched the countenance of some Presidents, even from Africa, while they looked at our president with disdain when issues of debt forgiveness for African countries was raised.

In most cases, the government, both at the federal and state cannot show the product of loans, except those lent by institutions like the World Bank or African Development Bank for specific projects which are monitored by the lending institutions. In other cases, the loans are stolen and transferred abroad while we are paying the loans. In some other cases, the loans are diverted to projects other than what the proposal stated. There was a case of loans obtained based on establishing an international car park in the border of the State but diverted to finance the election of a politician in the State. The politician eventually lost the election but the citizens of the State have to be taxed to pay the loan. Somebody as “Nigeria we hail thee”.

Transformation in budgeting should commence subsequently at the State and federal level. Now that local government will enjoy some financial autonomy and therefore budgeting process, they should be legally barred from contracting foreign loans. They have no business participating in the market. They should promote balanced budget where proposed expenditures must equal the expected revenues from federal and internal sources. The State government that cannot mobilise, from records, up to 40 percent of its total budget from IGR should not be supported to contract foreign loans. The States should engage in a balanced budget. The federal government budget should shift away from huge allocations to recurrent expenditure towards capital expenditure for capital formation and within the context of a welfarist state.

Sheriffdeen A. Tella, Ph.D.

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