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Strictly Personal

Forces that will defeat Buhari’s Naira project by Lanre Adewole

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When President Muhammadu Buhari decided to publicly back the Governor of Central Bank, Godwin Emefiele, against his Minister of Economy (Finance, Budget, and National Planning=Economy), Zainab Ahmed, in debating the sense of redesigning the nation’s currency at a time like this, the President simply told the Minister, she is surplus to requirement in shaping one of his major legacy projects.

Having been publicly shamed, Zainab should have been gone by now, but resigning over a presidential rebuke, would be seen as against the run of play, around here. Except fired or forced to resign, office holders in Nigeria, regardless of the extent of public ridicule subjected to, will rather hang on, needed or not. The few, like Kemi Adeosun, Zainab’s predecessor, had no refuge to run to. Her godfather reportedly abandoned her and she gotta go.

The seat currently occupied by Zainab is arguably the most important cabinet position after the AGF office, which the Constitution (section 174) says is a must-have. In a normal setup, there is no consideration that should leave her out of the coffee-room team, handling the project. And for her to hang on, after the double humiliation, first, of being left out and of being openly rebuked by the President, should be a red flag, considering the project’s political and economic implications.

The Zainab no-show also speaks to the poorly-concealed dysfunction in Buhari’s economic team, which the Nigerian people have been paying dearly for. The obvious power-play and influence-peddling within the team, is surely hurting the economy because when team members undermine one another, it is the national assignment that will bear the brunt.

In an administration where no one is providing an all-encompassing leadership, and everyone trying to leverage relevance to make the most of the time left, I personally believe there is no chance in a million Zainab first heard about the currency project the day Emefiele made a formal announcement. The patronage her office can dispense would see to her, even getting unsolicited information, though she is considered a featherweight in the global economic community.

Her claim at the senate appearance was just griping, for being officially considered inconsequential and a liability. But her statement would still be factual, if there was no official correspondence to her office, even if verbally notified by Godwin, which isn’t even the case here.

Though CBN is autonomous so to say, (the President’s wish per time, is the real autonomy for a genuflecting fellow like Emefiele), the decision to keep the ma’am in charge of the economy out of the loop on the project, can’t definitely be Emefiele’s, no matter how rascally and reckless he has portrayed self, especially with the dangerous incursion into APC presidential field as CBN governor. The decision to humiliate Zainab and obviously her backers in the political spectrum was firmly the President. To show Zainab that it was his fight when she threw the gauntlet at the senate, it was Aso Rock that picked it up, firing a broadside at her.

Since September 14, 2018, when Buhari elevated her to replace Adeosun, it would be the first time the Minister would be openly scolded by the President and for someone who rarely moves against his appointees, the matter, this time, must be very serious and the implementation very dear to his heart. He was very clear that he is targeting political and economic saboteurs.

On June 27, 1942, America captured eight saboteurs working for Germany on American soil. A military commission found them guilty. One was sentenced to, life imprisonment, another to 30 years, and six received the death penalty, which was carried out within a few days.

The President is a former military man. Though a civilian now, his understanding of how saboteurs are treated, must still be with him. By excusing a senior cabinet member like Zainab from a project with the potential to define his entire public life, in khaki and agbada, he must have stretched the consideration beyond the harmless-looking, soft-speaking woman, with a gentle mien.

But he doesn’t trust her either. When you keep a piece of important information from someone who can’t affect the potency of it, you don’t want him or her, to snitch to those who could cancel its efficacy. Yoruba will call such a fellow, olofofo.

Somehow, I want to concede to the President he possibly had genuine concerns to keep Zainab away at the incubatory stage. He possibly would have ignored her and her tendencies if they do not possess the capacity, to make complete nonsense of the policy and ruin the entire memory of the President, outside the office.

At least, recent history shows he ignored now-late Aisha Al-Hassan, popularly known as Mama Taraba when a leaked video showed her preference for Atiku as President over and above her principal’s re-election. That was simply not wishing the President well. But he took it in his strides, allowing Hajia to continue in office as Women Affairs minister, until she voluntarily resigned on July 27, 2018, to seek Taraba governorship. The President knew she posed no direct threat.

But how dangerous can Zainab and her promoters in government be, to the legacy project?. The minister is from Kaduna State. As things stand today, nobody gets anything due to the state from the federal, without the support of the governor. He is a self-confessed Buharist, but also led the coup that toppled the Northern agenda of the President, regarding APC’s presidential candidate, the same way he led the coup against another benefactor, Olusegun Obasanjo’s third-term bid.

The political class has largely opted for radio silence since the President announced his desire to tackle vote-buying that twice bought victory for him, even if he wasn’t the direct spender. When the class is buffeted, platforms don’t matter again. When I joked to a top politician that dibokose’be (vote-buying) would have to be in dollars this time, since politicians would not have access to bullion vans, he assured me that at least two of the leading presidential candidates can commandeer billions of naira, anytime they need cash for election purposes. Banks’ CEOs are politicians’ toys and are ready to risk jail term for a potential incoming President than serving the interest of an outgoing lame-duct incumbent. Any loss suffered now, will be recouped from June 2023.

Once the banks’ chiefs are in, only CBN can salvage the project, by greatly limiting cash flow to the banks. But can Emefiele himself say no to those who ran his ill-fated presidential campaign? Can the nation trust him, to deal with the crookedness of his banker colleagues who are likely to preserve all redesigned naira notes for their politician-patrons, just like they currently do with the dollar, to the detriment of everyday Nigerian?  Will Nigerians go through the obvious pains of the policy, without the gain of having their electoral will on the ascendancy?

Now that it is still day, the President can still pull the policy by announcing an indefinite extension of the takeoff date, if his honest review predicts a loss against those waiting to cancel the policy, within his government and elsewhere.

But if he is ready to fight for the people, like his predecessor Goodluck Jonathan, he might just snatch victory from the jaws of defeat, whether APC wins or loses.

Strictly Personal

African Union must ensure Sudan civilians are protected, By Joyce Banda

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The war in Sudan presents the world – and Africa – with a test. This far, we have scored miserably. The international community has failed the people of Sudan. Collectively, we have chosen to systematically ignore and sacrifice the Sudanese people’s suffering in preference of our interests.

For 18 months, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have fought a pitiless conflict that has killed thousands, displaced millions, and triggered the world’s largest hunger crisis.

Crimes against humanity and war crimes have been committed by both parties to the conflict. Sexual and gender-based violence are at epidemic levels. The RSF has perpetrated a wave of ethnically motivated violence in Darfur. Starvation has been used as a weapon of war: The SAF has carried out airstrikes that deliberately target civilians and civilian infrastructure.

The plight of children is of deep concern to me. They have been killed, maimed, and forced to serve as soldiers. More than 14 million have been displaced, the world’s largest displacement of children. Millions more haven’t gone to school since the fighting broke out. Girls are at the highest risk of child marriage and gender-based violence. We are looking at a child protection crisis of frightful proportions.

In many of my international engagements, the women of Sudan have raised their concerns about the world’s non-commitment to bring about peace in Sudan.

I write with a simple message. We cannot delay any longer. The suffering cannot be allowed to continue or to become a secondary concern to the frustrating search for a political solution between the belligerents. The international community must come together and adopt urgent measures to protect Sudanese civilians.

Last month, the UN’s Independent International Fact-Finding Mission for Sudan released a report that described a horrific range of crimes committed by the RSF and SAF. The report makes for chilling reading. The UN investigators concluded that the gravity of its findings required a concerted plan to safeguard the lives of Sudanese people in the line of fire.

“Given the failure of the warring parties to spare civilians, an independent and impartial force with a mandate to safeguard civilians must be deployed without delay,” said Mohamed Chande Othman, chair of the Fact-Finding Mission and former Chief Justice of Tanzania.

We must respond to this call with urgency.

A special responsibility resides with the African Union, in particular the AU Commission, which received a request on June 21 from the AU Peace and Security Council (PSC) “to investigate and make recommendations to the PSC on practical measures to be undertaken for the protection of civilians.”

So far, we have heard nothing.

The time is now for the AU to act boldly and swiftly, even in the absence of a ceasefire, to advance robust civilian protection measures.

A physical protective presence, even one with a limited mandate, must be proposed, in line with the recommendation of the UN Fact-Finding Mission. The AU should press the parties to the conflict, particularly the Sudanese government, to invite the protective mission to enter Sudan to do its work free from interference.

The AU can recommend that the protection mission adopt targeted strategies operations, demarcated safe zones, and humanitarian corridors – to protect civilians and ensure safe, unhindered, and adequate access to humanitarian aid.

The protection mission mandate can include data gathering, monitoring, and early warning systems. It can play a role in ending the telecom blackout that has been a troubling feature of the war. The mission can support community-led efforts for self-protection, working closely with Sudan’s inspiring mutual-aid network of Emergency Response Rooms. It can engage and support localised peace efforts, contributing to community-level ceasefire and peacebuilding work.

I do not pretend that establishing a protection mission in Sudan will be easy. But the scale of Sudan’s crisis, the intransigence of the warring parties, and the clear and consistent demands from Sudanese civilians and civil society demand that we take action.

Many will be dismissive. It is true that numerous bureaucratic, institutional, and political obstacles stand in our way. But we must not be deterred.

Will we stand by as Sudan suffers mass atrocities, disease, famine, rape, mass displacement, and societal disintegration? Will we watch as the crisis in Africa’s third largest country spills outside of its borders and sets back the entire region?

Africa and the world have been given a test. I pray that we pass it.

Dr Joyce Banda is a former president of the Republic of Malawi.

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Strictly Personal

Economic policies must be local, By Lekan Sote

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With 32.70 per cent headline inflation, 40.20 per cent food inflation, and bread inflation of 45 per cent, all caused by the removal of subsidies from petrol and electricity, and the government’s policy of allowing market forces to determine the value of the Naira, Nigerians are reeling under high cost of living.

 

The observation by Obi Alfred Achebe of Onitsha, that “The wellbeing of the people has declined more steeply in the last months,” leads to doubts about the “Renewed Hope” slogan of President Bola Tinubu’s government that is perceived as extravagant, whilst asking Nigerians to be patient and wait for its unfolding economic policies to mature.

 

It doesn’t look as if it will abate soon, Adebayo Adelabu, Minister of Power, who seems ready to hike electricity tariffs again, recently argued that the N225 per kilowatt hour of electricity that Discos charge Band A premium customers is lower than the N750 and N950 respective costs of running privately-owned petrol or diesel generators.

 

While noting that 129 million, or 56 per cent of Nigerians are trapped below poverty line, the World Bank revealed that real per capita Gross Domestic Product, which disregards the service industry component, is yet to recover from the pre-2016 economic depression under the government of Muhammadu Buhari.

 

This has led many to begin to doubt the government’s World Bank and International Monetary Fund-inspired neo-liberal economic policies that seem to have further impoverished poor Nigerians, practically eliminated the middle class, and is making the rich also cry.

 

Yet the World Bank, which is not letting up, recently pontificated that “previous domestic policy missteps (based mainly on its own advice) are compounding the shocks of rising inflation (that is) eroding the purchasing power of the people… and this policy is pushing many (citizens) into poverty.”

 

It zeroes in by asking Nigeria to stay the gruelling course, which Ibukun Omole thinks “is nothing more than a manifesto for exploitation… a blatant attempt to continue the cycle of exploitation… a tool of imperialism, promoting the same policies that have kept Nigeria under the thumb of… neocolonial agenda for decades.”

 

When Indermilt Gill, Senior Vice President of the World Bank, told the 30th Summit of Nigeria’s Economic Summit Group, in Abuja, Federal Capital Territory, that Nigerians may have to endure the harrowing economic conditions for another 10 to 15 years, attendees murmured but didn’t walk out on him because of Nigerian’s tradition of politeness to guests.

 

Governor Bala Muhammed of Bauchi State, who agrees with the World Bank that “purchasing power has dwindled,” also thinks that “these (World Bank-inspired) policies, usually handed down by arm-twisting compulsions, are not working.”

 

What seems to be trending now is the suggestion that because these neo-liberal policies do not seem to be helping the economy and the citizens of Nigeria, at least in the short term, it would be better to think up homegrown solutions to Nigeria’s economic problems.

 

Late Speaker of America’s House of Representatives, Tip O’Neill, is quoted to have quipped that, at the end of the day, “All politics is local.” He may have come to that conclusion after observing that it takes the locals in a community to know what is best for them.

 

This aphorism must apply to economics, a field of study that is derived from sociology, which is the study of the way of life of a people. Proof of this is in “The Wealth of Nations,” written by Adam Smith, who is regarded as the first scholar of economics.

 

In his Introduction to the Penguin Classics edition of “The Wealth of Nations,” Andrew Skinner observes: “Adam Smith was undoubtedly the remarkable product of a remarkable age and one whose writing clearly reflects the intellectual, social and economic conditions of the period.”

 

To drive the point home that Smith’s book was written for his people and his time, Skinner reiterated that “the general ‘philosophy,’ which it contained was so thoroughly in accord with the aspirations and circumstances of his age.”

 

In a Freudian slip of the Darwinist realities of the Industrial Revolution that birthed individualism, capitalism, and global trade, Smith averred that “How selfish soever man may be supposed, there are evidently some principle in his nature which interest him in the fortune of others, and render their happiness necessary to him, though he derives nothing from it, except the pleasures of seeing it.”

 

And, he let it slip that capitalism is for the advantage of Europe when he confessed that “Europe, by not leaving things at perfect liberty (the so-called Invisible Hand), occasions… inequities,” by “restraining the competition in some trades to a smaller number… increasing it in others beyond what it naturally would be… and… free circulation of labour (or expertise) and stocks (goods) both from employment to employment and from place to place!”

 

Policymakers, who think Bretton Woods institutions will advise policies to replicate the success of the Euro-American economy in Nigeria must be daydreaming. After advising elimination of subsidy, as global best practices that reflect market forces, they failed to suggest that Nigeria’s N70,000 monthly minimum wage, neither reflects the realities of the global marketplace, nor Section 16(2,d) of Nigeria’s Constitution, which suggests a “reasonable national minimum living wage… for all citizens.”

 

After Alex Sienart, World Bank’s lead economist in Nigeria, pointed out that the wage increase will directly affect the lives of only 4.1 per cent of Nigerians, he suggested that Nigeria needed more productive jobs to reduce poverty. But he neither explained “productive jobs,” nor suggested how to create them.

 

In admitting past wrong economic policies that the World Bank recommended for Nigeria, its former President, Jim Yong Kim, confessed, “I think the World Bank has to take responsibility for having emphasized hard infrastructure –roads, rails, energy– for a long time…

 

“There is still the bias that says we will invest in hard infrastructure, and then we grow rich, (and) we will have enough money to invest in health and education. (But) we are now saying that’s the wrong approach, that you’ve got to start investing in your people.”

 

Kim is a Korean-American physician, health expert, and anthropologist, whose Harvard University and Brown University Ivy League background shapes his decidedly “Pax American” worldview of America’s dominance of the world economy.

 

Despite his do-gooder posturing, his diagnoses and prescriptions still did not quite address the root cause of Nigeria’s economic woes, nor provide any solutions. They were mere diversions that stopped short of the way forward.

 

He should have advocated for the massive accumulation of capital and investments in the local production of manufacturing machinery, industrial spare parts, and raw materials—items that are currently imported, weakening Nigeria’s trade balance.

 

He should have pushed for the completion of Ajaokuta Steel Mill and helped to line up investors with managerial, technical, and financial competence to salvage Nigeria’s electricity sector, whose poor run has been described by Dr. Akinwumi Adesina, President of Africa Development Bank, as “killing Nigerian industries.”

 

He could have assembled consultants to accelerate the conversion of Nigeria’s commuter vehicles to Compressed Natural Gas and get banks of the metropolitan economies, that hold Nigeria’s foreign reserves in their vaults, to invest their low-interest funds into Nigeria’s agriculture— so that Nigeria will no longer import foodstuffs.

 

Nigerians need homegrown solutions to their economic woes.

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