There are a few things that Kenya’s freshly inaugurated president and his rival in last week’s contentious elections seem to agree on. Yet expanding relations with Morocco seems to be a no-brainer in Nairobi. President William Ruto’s opposition decried the way in which he on Twitter announced Kenya’s intention to sever ties with Polisario’s self-styled Saharawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR), opposition leader Raila Odinga rushed to emphasize they merely disagreed about the method of the announcement.
After a highly contentious election, with Odinga even claiming election fraud, it is remarkable to see the two bitter rivals publicly agree on the merits of Ruto’s decision. Ruto in exchange seemed to recognize Odinga’s critique of his choice of medium, which prompted the new president to delete the tweet.
Immediately after Kenya’s president deleted the post, some online commentators claimed the procedural step was a sign Nairobi’s week-old presidency was not fully on board with the foreign policy shift.
It appears that Ruto, in his first month on the job, simply misused Kenya’s constitutional procedures regarding foreign policy moves, which require parliamentary approval. Simply put, Kenya is a democratic state of institutions in which decisions of this magnitude are not taken on social media.
The only way to significantly change the relations between countries is through official documents that are agreed or signed between the concerned parties. Despite some misinformed reporting in the Kenyan press, speculating on a Kenyan retreat from its new position, there is an important indication that suggests that, although Nairobi has not officially severed its relations with the Algerian-created paper republic it has taken the first step in this direction.
The likelihood of Kenya changing its 2014 recognition was further strengthened by a statement issued by the Polisario militia’s leadership on the same day of Ruto’s announcement. In the following days, Odinga’s statement clarified that he never mentioned Polisario, and in fact, was well aware of “the important and beneficial relations between Kenya and Morocco.”
The geopolitical reality is that Ruto’s second tweet, following the deletion of the much-criticized first message, highlighted that Kenya’s president supports the UN-sponsored political process as the only mechanism to resolve the Western Sahara dispute. While worded differently to avoid making unconstitutional unilateral foreign policy moves, this statement shows that Kenya de facto no longer recognizes the self-proclaimed SADR.
The remaining countries that recognize this Algerian-made entity simply do not talk about the international UN peace process. Kenya’s statement perfectly aligns with years of Moroccan efforts to put an end to attempts to force the African Union into playing a role in the Moroccan Sahara dispute, keeping the file exclusively in the hands of the United Nations.
If the new Kenyan position is officially confirmed, it will not be the first time that Kenya decides to stop its relations with Algeria’s creation.
It did so in 2006 and stood firm in that position until 2014. The difference between this time and the situation in 2006 is the geostrategic changes that have occurred in Africa and in the world. Over the past decade, Morocco has played a pivotal role in sub-Saharan Africa’s development, thanks to royal diplomacy and the strengthening of Morocco’s economic power, not only in the west of the continent but also in the east.
Over the past years, many of the largest Moroccan banks and companies have entered the markets of many African countries. Meanwhile, Morocco’s much-desired phosphate riches constitute a trump card that is only set to become increasingly important in the coming years.
This is an important point that every Moroccan should be aware of and take into consideration to know the reasons why many countries in the future will follow Kenya’s example.
No matter how much Algeria and its allies from the old guard in Kenya’s state and media try to undermine the new direction of this country, Kenya has few options left to secure food for its population in the short, medium, and long term besides closer cooperation with Morocco to gain access to its much-needed fertilizer supply.
Over the coming decades, we will see Morocco’s vital contribution to food security around the world grow significantly as its competitors’ marginal reserves (compared to Morocco’s) shrink. This is especially relevant in Africa, where agriculture represents 30 percent of GDP and provides valued livelihoods for 55 percent of the continent’s labor force.
Morocco’s central role in achieving food security
The world is now in a new era, where achieving food security has become an urgent preoccupation for many governments, especially in Africa, Latin America, and Asia.
Numerous studies issued by prestigious research centers, as well as the World Bank and the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization, showed that the world is facing one of history’s darkest periods due to the alarming rise in the prices of basic foodstuffs. Because of the severe effects of COVID-19 on global supply chains, inflation rates pushed food prices in June 2021 to the level before the outbreak of the Arab revolutions in 2011.
The Russian war in Ukraine has only made matters worse, creating an alarming inflation crisis. Meanwhile, accelerating climate change has seen both famines and political unrest grow in many countries that are dependent on either food or fertilizer imports for their survival.
Morocco’s role in the coming months, years, and decades can in many ways be compared to the role played by Saudi Arabia in oil markets over the past decades. Rabat’s growing importance is set to give it significant sway over global fertilizer prices, and in effect, the ability of many countries to maintain or achieve food security.
Achieving domestic food security means adopting modern agricultural production techniques, the most important of which is the use of fertilizers to increase the level of agricultural productivity. The only country in the world that has an unparalleled phosphates and fertilizers production capacity is Morocco, which sits on 70 percent of the world’s phosphate reserves.
Thanks to OCP Group’s tremendous efforts over the past two decades to raise the level of fertilizer production, Morocco has become the main destination for countries that suffer from falling agricultural productivity and seek to boost it in order to achieve food security.
The Office Chérifien des Phosphates (OCP) is a crucial part of Moroccan policy in Africa. It aims to improve African farmers’ ability to increase their productivity level and mitigate the lingering effects of COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine, and as such has donated vast quantities of fertilizers to many African countries, such as Rwanda, which received 15,000 Tonnes of Moroccan fertilizer in July.
Decreased agricultural productivity in Kenya due to the high cost of fertilizers
Kenya is among a growing list of countries suffering from an unprecedented decline in the level of agricultural productivity, to the extent that millions of citizens are under threat of starvation. This decline is attributed to the large rise in fertilizer prices in international markets due to the war in Ukraine, causing the price of these fertilizers to rise by more than 400 percent compared to 2020. These prices are expected to rise by an additional 50 percent by the end of the year.
The situation in Kenya reflects the dire outlook for many African countries, which are facing near food scarcity which commonly leads to political unrest and famine. Africa is the continent where more than one in five people suffers from hunger, the largest number around the world, while another 282 million Africans suffer from malnutrition.
As in the rest of the world, the increase in agricultural productivity on the African continent depends on the increase in the level of fertilizer it uses. According to forecasts published by the World Bank in August, about 66 million people in eastern and southern Africa are vulnerable to starvation and food scarcity.
In the face of rising fertilizer prices, many small farmers in Kenya (the backbone of the Kenyan agricultural sector) have been forced to reduce the areas they can allocate to agricultural productivity. Some Kenyan farmers have had to halve the area devoted to maize cultivation. This step has led to a notable decrease in domestic agricultural productivity, which has led to a rise in the prices of foodstuffs. This increasingly limited agricultural output is expected to inevitably lead to a threat to the country’s food security and a decrease in GDP by 0.8 percent.
The high prices of fertilizers will push 1.4 million people below the poverty line, while Kenya sees a steep fall in the production of maize, its most important food source.
To mitigate the negative effects high fertilizer prices have had on the ability of Kenyan farmers to access them, the previous Kenyan government decided in April to provide subsidies to farmers to enable them to obtain fertilizers at lowered prices.
What is happening in Kenya reflects the suffering of many countries in sub-Saharan Africa due to outdated agricultural practices. The most important structural problem that has prevented sub-Saharan African countries from achieving food security is their low rates of fertilizer use by farmers, which did not exceed 8 kilograms per hectare at the beginning of the third millennium.
To find a gradual solution to this dilemma, and increase agricultural productivity, the African Union expressed the ambition in 2006 to raise the level of fertilizer use to 50 kilograms per hectare. Still, the use of fertilizers by farmers in sub-Saharan Africa does not exceed 19 kg per hectare, while the global average is 160 kg per hectare. Although sub-Saharan Africa has the largest amount of arable land in the world, the low levels of fertilizer use make the proportion of agricultural productivity in Africa four times lower compared to high-productivity countries.
The current global crisis may exacerbate this situation and cause a sharp decrease in the level of fertilizer use, which will endanger the food security of many countries on the continent.
Food security is so important that it was one of the four main campaign promises of Kenya’s recently elected President William Ruto, in addition to industrialization, affordable housing, and health care. The Kenyan president knows very well that achieving this goal depends on obtaining fertilizers at appropriate prices to help farmers restore the level of productivity they were accustomed to before the Ukrainian war, and even increase it.
However, this scenario is out of the question, especially since various researchers warn that fertilizer prices will likely never again drop to pre-Ukrainian war levels. A study by the International Food Policy Research Institute recommends that, in order for Kenya to overcome the fertilizer crisis, it should consider the possibility of enhancing local production of this vital resource, by encouraging the private sector to enter into partnerships to build fertilizer factories.
In the current international context, Morocco is the only country that can help Kenya, and the rest of Africa, take such a step toward achieving food security. Rabat has shown for years its goodwill towards many countries in sub-Saharan Africa and its sincere intention to advance mutual, pan-Africanism-driven development. Over the past decade, Morocco has shown to be a safety valve for many African countries seeking to achieve food security.
As a result of OCP’s assistance to help sub-Saharan African countries increase fertilizer use tailor fertilizers commensurate with local soil quality, the productivity rate in many countries such as Senegal, Nigeria, Ghana and Ethiopia has increased by up to 63 percent. Furthermore, the current construction of Moroccan fertilizer plants in 12 African countries, including Nigeria and Ethiopia, provides good evidence of Morocco’s vital role on the African continent, which is set to only further grow in the coming years and decades.
The current geostrategic shifts strengthen Morocco’s position
The current global geostrategic fluctuations have placed Morocco in a position of growing influence and strength that will enable it to preserve its territorial integrity and enhance its leading position in Africa.
Thanks to its relentless pursuit of sustainable African food security, Morocco will not only be able to enhance its influence on this continent, but also enhance its influence on European countries and the United States of America. The current context has led these countries to prioritize reducing their dependence on Russian fertilizer imports, which represent 30% of the fertilizers imported by the European market to meet internal needs.
Although the current war in Ukraine has burdened the Moroccan state and Moroccan citizens with high oil prices, it will, in the short, medium, and long term, play in Morocco’s favor, on the economic and geostrategic levels.
The ongoing war in Ukraine has raised the European Union’s awareness of the need to gradually get rid of its dependence on Russian fertilizers, especially after Russia decided last November to place restrictions on its fertilizer exports. As the largest global producer of fertilizers, Russia can use this vital material as a card to pressure its opponents, especially in light of the current conflict between it and the Western countries. What enhances Russia’s influence in the global fertilizer market is that it is also the second-largest global producer of gas that is used in the production of ammonia, which is a vital component in the production of fertilizers.
The first signs of Europe’s shifting focus on its fertilizer supply became evident a month ago, when Jacob Hansen, Director General of Fertilizers Europe, said that Europe intends to increase its Moroccan fertilizer imports. In the coming months and years, Morocco will play an increasingly vital role in helping both European and African countries obtain more reliable access to fertilizers, and thus avoid social and political crises that would lead to political turmoil and further instability.
In the context of the growing global food crisis due to the decline in the supply of fertilizers, OCP group has announced its intention to increase its production of fertilizers by 10 percent by the end of the year. This means that the group will make available an additional 1.2 million tonnes on the global market. Furthermore, the Moroccan company plans to increase its production level by an additional 7 million tonnes during the period between 2023 and 2026.
By so doing, the Moroccan company will contribute to enhancing Morocco’s economic strength and vital foreign exchange reserves thanks to the revenues from its fertilizer exports, in addition to enhancing its geostrategic influence in many regions of the world, especially Europe.
For Morocco this will mean a reliable inflow of foreign currencies needed to access global capital and repay loans, as well as fortifying Rabat’s ability to reliably pay for vital foreign imports, including feeding Morocco’s largely imported energy needs. For Europe, Morocco can provide a safe haven and a reliable partner to gradually mitigate the influence of the Russian market and undermine Russia’s ability to use this vital agricultural input as a winning card in its struggle against the West and the rest of the world. Brussels will also find in Morocco one of the few available partners that can prevent an unprecedented food crisis in Africa that will lead to a similarly unprecedented rise in immigration to Europe.
Morocco’s keenness to enhance the global market’s access to fertilizers, it holds the key for many African countries to achieve food security, or at least raise the level of their production in a way that keeps them safe from political turmoil. As professor Michaël Tanchum put it, Morocco’s approach should only reinforce its position as a reliable partner for both the European Union and the United States in sub-Saharan Africa. European countries will not be the only ones that will work to win over Morocco to ensure a reliable supply of fertilizers. There already are several influential countries including Japan and Brazil that have sought for some time to obtain Moroccan fertilizers.
Morocco’s phosphate-fueled strategy, whether in Africa or towards many of its traditional and new partners, did not come by chance. It is based on a forward-looking reading of global market fluctuations in the coming years and decades. Morocco is also reaping the fruits of the insightful policy pursued by the country’s monarch over the past two decades to help Morocco play the role it deserves in Africa.
Another factor behind OCP’s revolutionary approach is its CEO, Dr. Mostafa Terrab, who took charge of the state-owned company in 2006. Ever since Al-Turab has helped make OCP of great strategic importance as Morocco’s primary geopolitical tool in the medium and long term. OCP’s executive director has proven himself to be a brilliant figure who is loyal to his country while helping make Morocco the world’s fourth leading fertilizer exporting country.
The shift in Kenya’s position also came as a result of the tremendous diplomatic work done by former Moroccan Ambassador to Kenya El Mokhtar Gambo, who made great efforts to change the view of the Kenyan political, media and academic class on the Western Sahara dispute.
However, while it seems that the current Kenyan leadership has become aware of the importance of strengthening its relations with Morocco and taking a position that is not hostile to Rabat’s territorial integrity, the gap is still great between Kenyan public opinion and opinion makers in this country and Morocco.
A quick look at Kenyan media coverage of the Moroccan Sahara dispute reveals that Kenyan public opinion is still swayed by the narrative that Algeria has promoted for more than four decades. It is clear that Morocco will have to adopt a real media and communication strategy to correct the misinformation that has skewed Kenyan public opinion.
Due to the Moroccan government’s historic failure to adequately make its case to English-speaking countries, many historical facts that seem self-evident to Moroccans remain unknown to the large majority of Kenyans. Despite all the Moroccan diplomatic gains on the African continent during the past six years, Morocco still suffers from the same shortcomings that it faced in the past.
This includes the absence of a strategy aimed at winning the trust of public opinion and decision-makers in English-speaking countries. No country can have effective diplomacy in the absence of a clear vision of the critical importance of owning powerful channels, newspapers, and magazines that can influence international public opinion and combat the false narratives that Algeria and its allies have been promoting for several decades.
Samir Bennis is the co-founder of Morocco World News. You can follow him on Twitter @SamirBennis.
