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Nigeria’s oil subsidy could hit $16.2 billion in 2023 but government isn’t ready to bell the cat yet

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The sorry tale of Nigeria’s oil subsidy regime could become messier as the Finance Minister, Zainab Ahmed has revealed the West African could spend up to 6.72 trillion naira ($16.2 billion) next year on subsidy.

The minister said fuel subsidy could rise to nearly 70% jump from this year’s budget if it keeps it place.

Despite her increasing debt profile, Nigeria’s government in January postponed its planned removal of subsidy on petroleum products till further notice. Petrol subsidy payments reportedly gulped overN1.15 trillion 2021 alone, resulting in low revenue for federal, state and local governments to cater for developmental projects.

The minister made the revelation during a pre-2023 budget consultation in the federal capital Abuja. The second option “assumes that petrol subsidy will remain up to mid-2023…, in which case only 3.36 trillion (naira) will be provided for.”

“Revenue performance is expected to improve in the second half of 2022 as a result of concerted efforts to address the oil theft and pipelines vandalism,” the finance minister said.

Ahmed said the federal government was working with two scenarios, one that assumed a “business-as-usual” approach where a subsidy would be in place throughout 2023 and would cost 6.72 trillion naira.

Although Nigeria is one of the largest oil producers in the world, the West African country does not refine crude oil locally. State-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) has four refineries, two in Port Harcourt (PHRC), and one each in Kaduna (KRPC) and Warri (WRPC) but none has worked to capacity for years despite several investments to succinate the refineries.

Nigeria exports its oil for refining, and pays heavily to import the refined products and sell the Premium Motor Spirit at subsidized rate to final consumers. There has always been discrepancy on the actual figure of consumed petroleum product in Nigeria. The subsidy regime has eaten the country deeper than it can afford.

With the 2023 elections in sight, the Nigeria government appears not ready to bell the cat on the subsidy regime.

VenturesNow

After decades of imports, Nigeria ends oil importation

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The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) has declared that it has finally stopped the long-standing practice of importing petroleum products after decades of doing so.

 

Nigeria’s national oil corporation stated that it now purchased from the 650,000 barrels per day Dangote Petroleum Refinery in Lagos, which is estimated to save the country up to $10 billion in hard currency each year.

 

This was revealed by Mr Mele Kyari, Group Chief Executive Officer of NNPC, in Lagos during his keynote address at the 42nd annual international conference and exhibition of the Nigerian Association of Petroleum Explorationists (NAPE).

 

The statement coincided with the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN) announcing another positive development: the organisation had agreed to purchase goods directly from the $20 billion Dangote facility.

 

The oil dealers had fiercely protested the prior arrangement, which called for independent marketers to purchase from the NNPC rather than the Dangote Refinery.

 

However, Kyari also stated that all of the nation’s oil producers are required to send crude to the four NNPC refineries upon their return to the grid, citing the Domestic Crude Oil Obligation (DCOO) as outlined in the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021 as support.

 

He denied rumours that local refineries were being harmed by the national oil company’s refusal to supply them with crude oil.

 

As a proud co-owner of the Dangote Refinery, Kyari described NNPC as having recognised an opportunity in the $20 billion refinery as a clear market for at least 300,000 barrels per day of production, which would allow it to avoid being caught in the rapidly contracting crude oil market.

 

“Oil is found in very many unexpected locations across the world and people have choices. And therefore, we saw an opportunity to now supply to not just Dangote, but every refinery that operates in the country. So, it’s a well-informed business decision. Therefore, from day one, we knew that it was to our benefit to supply crude oil to domestic refineries.

 

“So, we don’t need to be persuaded. We don’t need anyone to talk to us. There is no need for any pressure from the streets for us to do this. We are already doing this”, Kyari stated.

 

Nigeria saw a decrease in petrol imports according to the National Bureau of Statistics, after President Bola Tinubu eliminated the gasoline subsidy in May 2023. Additionally, the report revealed that petroleum imports decreased by 13.77 percent year over year to 20.30 billion litres in 2023 from 23.54 billion litres in 2022.

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VenturesNow

Nigeria signs deal for aircraft maintenance facility

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To build an aircraft maintenance, repair, and overhaul facility, the Nigerian government, acting through the Ministry of Aviation and Aerospace Development, has partnered with a private company in a public-private partnership.

Details of the agreement were given by a Ministry of Aviation representative, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorised to discuss the subject. The representative explained that the new facility would function as an Approved Maintenance Organisation under the Nigerian Civil Aviation Authority’s regulations.

The representative said, “AMO approved by the NCAA is meant to perform specific aircraft maintenance activities, which activities may include the inspection, overhaul, maintenance, repair, and/or alteration and release to service of aircraft or aeronautical products.”

Nigeria, which is the most populous country in Africa, is a major destination for more than 22 international airlines. Over 78 nations now have bilateral air services agreements with Nigeria.

According to the ministry source, this facility is the first of its kind in Nigeria and is intended to address the increasing maintenance requirements of domestic aircraft, which currently frequently necessitate costly and time-consuming journeys to foreign maintenance facilities.

The actual “date of commercial operations will be the date on which the NCAA grants the concessionaire approvals and licenses as required by the concessionaire in the agreement,” the ministry continued, adding that the exact start date for construction and ultimate operations is still unclear.

The source added that “all necessary activities are underway to make the contract effective.”

The official responded, “I don’t have those timelines,” when questioned about them. Before we discuss the actual building and management of the facilities, we are working quickly to complete a few tasks that will make the contract effective.

Festus Keyamo, the country’s minister of aviation and aerospace development, announced in August that he had finalised plans to start the bidding process for the construction of maintenance, repair, and overhaul facilities.

The minister stated that the action was a component of the government’s endeavour to improve the nation’s aviation infrastructure and lessen dependency on foreign MRO services. Due to the project’s high capital requirements, he also declared his intention to pursue a significant project using a Public-Private Partnership approach.

Nigeria’s economy and transportation sector both heavily rely on civil aviation. Nigeria boasts 23 operating domestic airlines, 20 airports, several regulated airstrips and heliports, 554 certified pilots, 913 qualified engineers, and 1700 cabin crew members.

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