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Massive job losses loom in Kenya as US Dollar shortages persist

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Workers in the private sector in Kenya are on the verge of losing their jobs following an acute shortage of the dollar which could trigger manufacturing firms to shut down or suspend operations as they try to navigate cash flow problems.

The fears were raised barely a week after the Kenya Association of Manufacturers (KAM) warned that most of its members are facing challenges accessing the dollar.

According to the KAM, firms like Pwani Oil, the manufacturer behind the Salit Oil, Mpishi Poa, and Fresh Fry cooking oil products, has announced a temporary halt of its operations, citing dollar shortage which has hindered it from sourcing key commodities.

KAM Chairperson Mucai Kunyiha on May 30, had said manufacturers have been forced to plan for foreign currency payments by purchasing foreign currency in advance resulting in an increase in working capital.

A foremost Kenyan economist, Ken Gichinfa who spoke on a radio programme on Wednesday, said with sufficient dollars in reserves, the shortage is being occasioned by pent-up demand for the dollars which has led to the depreciation of the Kenyan shilling.

“The worst-case scenario is that many firms will shut down resulting in job losses escalating due to manufacturers struggling to meet their obligations.

“If the situation remains unresolved, the business community involved with importation, like manufacturers and car dealers, will be largely affected and might lead to further closure and job losses,” Gichinga said.

But in response to the fears, the Kenyan Central Bank (CBK) accused the manufacturers of causing the scarcity of the dollars.

“The manufacturers should understand that they are small in that sense and sort of go to the market like everyone else. There are no favorites in the market. Follow the rules of the market and everything will be okay,” the CBK head, Patrick Ngugi Njoroge had previously remarked.

Kenya is already battling rising inflation which has heightened the cost of living with fuel and food prices rising.

The costs of producing goods and services remained at an 8-year high driven by rising fuel prices, higher taxes, and input shortages which forced many firms to scale back on output and employment levels.

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Nigeria: Marketers predict further price cut as another refinery begins operations

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Oil marketers and the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority expect refined petroleum product prices to reduce as another public refinery in Warri begins operations.

The marketers made the prediction when the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited launched the 125,000-barrel-per-day Delta State WRPC. NNPCL also wants to export locally refined goods for foreign cash. Last month, the 60,000-barrel-per-day Port Harcourt Refinery in Rivers State began operations.

During an inspection tour of the facility on Monday, the NNPCL Group Chief Executive Officer, Mele Kyari, explained that the inspection aimed to show Nigerians the level of work completed so far.

During a tour with NMDPRA CEO Farouk Ahmed and NNPC Board Chairman Pius Akinyelure, Kyari said that while facility repairs were not yet 100% complete, refining operations had begun and would produce straight-run kerosene, diesel and naphtha.

In a statement commemorating the milestone, President Bola Tinubu stated the plant is functioning at 60% or 75,000 barrels per day.

Kyari said, “We are taking you through our plant. This plant is running. Although it is not 100 per cent complete, we are still in the process. Many people think these things are not real. They think real things are not possible in this country. We want you to see that this is real.”

Since some of these goods would be shipped to foreign markets, he said, the reopening of the Warri refinery will help the country become a net exporter of petroleum products.

“Secondly, this plant had three stages; we have started plant one, which we call Area One. It can produce AGO (diesel), kerosene, naphtha, and a blend of crude oil. These are high-grade quality products required in the country, and we may need to export them. So this will give us cash, this company will make money and the promise of Mr President that this country must be a net exporter of petroleum products is already happening. Some of these products will go into the international market.

“Most importantly, I must put on record that Mr President believes that we can get this to work and get them to start and gave us the charge that we must start all three refineries. It’s already happening; we have started the 60,000 barrels per day refinery, and Area One of the Warri refinery is already working. Other plants that would produce PMS are being streamed and they would also come alive.

Mustapha Zarma, the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria’s National Operations Controller, stated that the rivalry in the downstream oil industry will become more fierce.

There will undoubtedly be a further decrease in pricing if the plant begins producing goods in bulk, he stated. This is because the market will ultimately be influenced by market forces and there will be fierce rivalry.

Until recently, none of Nigeria’s publicly owned refineries has worked to capacity for years, despite several investments to revive them. The failure of the government to revive them contributed to the high level of national anticipation surrounding the Dangote refinery whose operations appear to have revolutionalised the industry.

The refinery will concentrate on manufacturing and storing essential goods, such as heavy and light naphtha, automotive petrol oil and straight-run kerosene.

The country’s first fully owned refinery, the WRPC, was put into service in 1978 and is situated in Warri, Delta State, Nigeria. It was first built to process 100,000 barrels of crude oil a day, but in 1987 it was updated to process 125,000 barrels.

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Kenya: Consumer inflation rises to 3.0% from 2.8%

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Kenya’s statistics agency said on Tuesday that Kenya’s consumer price inflation increased slightly to 3.0% year-over-year in December from 2.8% the previous month.

According to a release from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, monthly inflation was 0.6%, down from 0.3% in November. Kenya aims to have a medium-term inflation rate of 2.5% to 7.5%.

With inflation under control, Kenya’s central bank said there was an opportunity for looser policy to assist economic development, lowering its benchmark lending rate by a larger-than-expected 75 basis points to 11.25% on December 5.

 

Kenya’s GDP expanded by 5.2% in 2023, up from 4.8% in 2022, thanks to a recovery in agriculture and a modest increase in services. Household consumption accounted for 70% of the growth on the demand side, while services and agriculture accounted for 69% and 23% of the growth, respectively, on the supply side.

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