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How African countries can chart a path to fresh recovery by Humberto Lopez

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The current state of world affairs continues to weigh heavily on global growth prospects, with new and ongoing crises taking an enormous toll on global economies, particularly those of developing countries. Just as we prepared to emerge from the pandemic and resume life under new normal conditions, Covid variants and the Russian invasion of Ukraine introduced additional shocks across markets. The costs of these persisting crises are staggering.

To put orders of magnitude on these costs, compare the January 2020 World Bank Global Economic Prospects projections for global GDP growth for 2020 and 2021 (at 2.5 percent and 2.6 percent respectively) with actual growth, which was -3.3 percent for 2020 and 5.5 percent for 2021. The difference translates into a cumulative global forgone output of $8 trillion, or slightly above $1,000 per person on earth between 2020 and 2021.

Taking into account that the World Bank expects 2022 global GDP to be 1.8 percent below its pre-pandemic projections, one could also add the projected forgone output for 2022 ($1.7 trillion) for a cumulative loss of $9.7 trillion.

The real costs have distinct variances across global regions.

If we were to repeat the exercise, comparing projected regional growth rates for Sub-Saharan Africa in January 2020 — which had growth at 2.9 percent, 3.1 percent, and 3.3 percent for 2020, 2021, and 2022, with actual growth over the same years resulting in -2.2 percent, 3.5 percent, and 3.6 percent, the foregone output for the region would be $180 billion over 2020-21 and $265 billion over 2020-22. While these numbers are not of the same order of magnitude as the global estimates, it is worth noting that $265 billion represents approximately the combined GDP of Kenya, Angola and Ethiopia.

Considering these massive economic setbacks and hard times ahead, the most important question governments should be asking themselves is: What combination of policies will enable our economies to rapidly recover while adapting to the evolving and acute challenges brought on by the war in Ukraine – all while charting a long-term path to greener and more resilient growth?

The first policy recommendation needs to include strategies that increase the rates of Covid vaccination. Only 12 percent of the population of Sub-Saharan Africa is fully vaccinated, far from the continental target of 70 percent. To reach the target, vaccination efforts would need to increase sixfold. Recent analysis by the World Health Organisation has concluded that assumptions about low Covid numbers in Africa could be the result of low testing rates, masking a deeper threat with much higher case numbers.

Low vaccination rates not only expose a country to the emergence of new Covid waves, as we are seeing today with Omicron, but also creates hospitable breeding environments for new variants.

A second policy recommendation would be to focus on building an enabling environment for the private sector to thrive. Pre-dating the pandemic, debt levels were already on the rise in several countries, reducing the buffers needed to respond to possible shocks.

The response to Covid-19 has further reduced buffers with many countries having to adopt measures that will allow them to regain a sustainable fiscal position, with the consequence of the reduced ability of the public sector to act as an engine of recovery. The private sector has to become the solution for a realistic recovery effort with public policy aimed at improving the investment climate and attracting private investment. Policies that create affordable, reliable access to sustainable energy will be crucial to enabling companies in Sub-Saharan to thrive and compete in the global economy. Currently, the cost of reliable access to electricity is about 50 times higher in Africa than in OECD economies, creating significant barrier to doing business in the region.

The third recommendation requires a deepening of regional integration efforts. Prior to the Covid pandemic and the Ukraine crisis, the world had already entered into a phase of deglobalisation. This is worrying, given the major gains realised from trade and the international exchange of goods, services, and ideas. Yet, Sub-Saharan Africa has an opportunity, thanks to the African Continental Free Trade Area agreement (AfCFTA), now the largest free trade area in the world as measured by the number of countries participating.

A successful implementation of the AfCFTA would boost the region’s income by $450 billion by 2035, raise exports by $560 billion, boost wages by 10.3 percent for unskilled workers and 9.8 percent for skilled workers, and lift 30 million people out of extreme poverty while driving wage growth for women. It is estimated that reducing tariffs will boost intra-African trade by 15-25 percent, and the biggest income gains will come from measures to reduce red tape and simplify Customs procedures. This opportunity will only become more important over the coming decades, when Sub-Saharan Africa will become the largest continent in terms of population, based on current projections, from 2060.

The road ahead is not an easy one, but the cost of inaction risks dire consequences for the region’s economies and people. While there is great uncertainty, one thing does remain certain – the resilience of Africans and their ability to innovate in times of crisis. The World Bank has been and will continue to support Sub-Saharan Africa to build back resilient economies that can weather the challenges ahead.

J. Humberto Lopez is the World Bank director of strategy and operations for Eastern and Southern Africa

Strictly Personal

Air Peace, capitalism and national interest, By Dakuku Peterside

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Nigerian corporate influence and that of the West continue to collide. The rationale is straightforward: whereas corporate activity in Europe and America is part of their larger local and foreign policy engagement, privately owned enterprises in Nigeria or commercial interests are not part of Nigeria’s foreign policy ecosystem, neither is there a strong culture of government support for privately owned enterprises’ expansion locally and internationally.

The relationship between Nigerian businesses and foreign policy is important to the national interest. When backing domestic Nigerian companies to compete on a worldwide scale, the government should see it as a lever to drive foreign policy, and national strategic interest, promote trade, enhance national security considerations, and minimize distortion in the domestic market as the foreign airlines were doing, boost GDP, create employment opportunities, and optimize corporate returns for the firms.

Admitted nations do not always interfere directly in their companies’ business and commercial dealings, and there are always exceptions. I can cite two areas of exception: military sales by companies because of their strategic implications and are, therefore, part of foreign and diplomatic policy and processes. The second is where the products or routes of a company have implications for foreign policy. Air Peace falls into the second category in the Lagos – London route.

Two events demonstrate an emerging trend that, if not checked, will disincentivize Nigerian firms from competing in the global marketplace. There are other notable examples, but I am using these two examples because they are very recent and ongoing, and they are typological representations of the need for Nigerian government backing and support for local companies that are playing in a very competitive international market dominated by big foreign companies whose governments are using all forms of foreign policies and diplomacy to support and sustain.

The first is Air Peace. It is the only Nigerian-owned aviation company playing globally and checkmating the dominance of foreign airlines. The most recent advance is the commencement of flights on the Lagos – London route. In Nigeria, foreign airlines are well-established and accustomed to a lack of rivalry, yet a free-market economy depends on the existence of competition. Nigeria has significantly larger airline profits per passenger than other comparable African nations. Insufficient competition has resulted in high ticket costs and poor service quality. It is precisely this jinx that Air Peace is attempting to break.

On March 30, 2024, Air Peace reciprocated the lopsided Bilateral Air Service Agreement, BASA, between Nigeria and the United Kingdom when the local airline began direct flight operations from Lagos to Gatwick Airport in London. This elicited several reactions from foreign airlines backed by their various sovereigns because of their strategic interest. A critical response is the commencement of a price war. Before the Air Peace entry, the price of international flight tickets on the Lagos-London route had soared to as much as N3.5 million for the  economy ticket. However, after Air Peace introduced a return economy class ticket priced at N1.2 million, foreign carriers like British Airways, Virgin Atlantic, and Qatar Airways reduced their fares significantly to remain competitive.

In a price war, there is little the government can do. In an open-market competitive situation such as this, our government must not act in a manner that suggests it is antagonistic to foreign players and competitors. There must be an appearance of a level playing field. However, government owes Air Peace protection against foreign competitors backed by their home governments. This is in the overall interest of the Nigerian consumer of goods and services. Competition history in the airspace works where the Consumer Protection Authority in the host country is active. This is almost absent in Nigeria and it is a reason why foreign airlines have been arbitrary in pricing their tickets. Nigerian consumers are often at the mercy of these foreign firms who lack any vista of patriotism and are more inclined to protect the national interest of their governments and countries.

It would not be too much to expect Nigerian companies playing globally to benefit from the protection of the Nigerian government to limit influence peddling by foreign-owned companies. The success of Air Peace should enable a more competitive and sustainable market, allowing domestic players to grow their network and propel Nigeria to the forefront of international aviation.

The second is Proforce, a Nigerian-owned military hardware manufacturing firm active in Rwanda, Chad, Mali, Ghana, Niger, Burkina Faso, and South Sudan. Despite the growing capacity of Proforce in military hardware manufacturing, Nigeria entered two lopsided arrangements with two UAE firms to supply military equipment worth billions of dollars , respectively. Both deals are backed by the UAE government but executed by UAE firms.

These deals on a more extensive web are not unconnected with UAE’s national strategic interest. In pursuit of its strategic national interest, India is pushing Indian firms to supply military equipment to Nigeria. The Nigerian defence equipment market has seen weaker indigenous competitors driven out due to the combination of local manufacturers’ lack of competitive capacity and government patronage of Asian, European, and US firms in the defence equipment manufacturing sector. This is a misnomer and needs to be corrected.

Not only should our government be the primary customer of this firm if its products meet international standards, but it should also support and protect it from the harsh competitive realities of a challenging but strategic market directly linked to our national military procurement ecosystem. The ability to produce military hardware locally is significant to our defence strategy.

This firm and similar companies playing in this strategic defence area must be considered strategic and have a considerable place in Nigeria’s foreign policy calculations. Protecting Nigeria’s interests is the primary reason for our engagement in global diplomacy. The government must deliberately balance national interest with capacity and competence in military hardware purchases. It will not be too much to ask these foreign firms to partner with local companies so we can embed the technology transfer advantages.

Our government must create an environment that enables our local companies to compete globally and ply their trades in various countries. It should be part of the government’s overall economic, strategic growth agenda to identify areas or sectors in which Nigerian companies have a competitive advantage, especially in the sub-region and across Africa and support the companies in these sectors to advance and grow to dominate in  the African region with a view to competing globally. Government support in the form of incentives such as competitive grants ,tax credit for consumers ,low-interest capital, patronage, G2G business, operational support, and diplomatic lobbying, amongst others, will alter the competitive landscape. Governments  and key government agencies in the west retain the services of lobbying firms in pursuit of its strategic interest.

Nigerian firms’ competitiveness on a global scale can only be enhanced by the support of the Nigerian government. Foreign policy interests should be a key driver of Nigerian trade agreements. How does the Nigerian government support private companies to grow and compete globally? Is it intentionally mapping out growth areas and creating opportunities for Nigerian firms to maximize their potential? Is the government at the domestic level removing bottlenecks and impediments to private company growth, allowing a level playing field for these companies to compete with international companies?

Why is the government patronising foreign firms against local firms if their products are of similar value? Why are Nigerian consumers left to the hands of international companies in some sectors without the government actively supporting the growth of local firms to compete in those sectors? These questions merit honest answers. Nigerian national interest must be the driving factor for our foreign policies, which must cover the private sector, just as is the case with most developed countries. The new global capitalism is not a product of accident or chance; the government has choreographed and shaped it by using foreign policies to support and protect local firms competing globally. Nigeria must learn to do the same to build a strong economy with more jobs.

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Strictly Personal

This is chaos, not governance, and we must stop it, By Tee Ngugi

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The following are stories that have dominated mainstream media in recent times. Fake fertiliser and attempts by powerful politicians to kill the story. A nation of bribes, government ministries and corporations where the vice is so routine that it has the semblance of policy. Irregular spending of billions in Nairobi County.

 

Billions are spent in all countries on domestic and foreign travel. Grabbing of land belonging to state corporations, was a scam reminiscent of the Kanu era when even public toilets would be grabbed. Crisis in the health and education sectors.

 

Tribalism in hiring for state jobs. Return of construction in riparian lands and natural waterways. Relocation of major businesses because of high cost of power and heavy taxation. A tax regime that is so punitive, it squeezes life out of small businesses. Etc, ad nauseam.

 

To be fair, these stories of thievery, mismanagement, negligence, incompetence and greed have been present in all administrations since independence.

 

However, instead of the cynically-named “mama mboga” government reversing this gradual slide towards state failure, it is fuelling it.

 

Alternately, it’s campaigning for 2027 or gallivanting all over the world, evoking the legend of Emperor Nero playing the violin as Rome burned.

 

A government is run based on strict adherence to policies and laws. It appoints the most competent personnel, irrespective of tribe, to run efficient departments which have clear-cut goals.

 

It aligns education to its national vision. Its strategies to achieve food security should be driven by the best brains and guided by innovative policies. It enacts policies that attract investment and incentivize building of businesses. It treats any kind of thievery or negligence as sabotage.

 

Government is not a political party. Government officials should have nothing to do with political party matters. They should be so engaged in their government duties that they literally would not have time for party issues. Government jobs should not be used to reward girlfriends and cronies.

 

Government is exhausting work undertaken because of a passion to transform lives, not for the trappings of power. Government is not endless campaigning to win the next election. To his credit, Mwai Kibaki left party matters alone until he had to run for re-election.

 

We have corrupted the meaning of government. We have parliamentarians beholden to their tribes, not to ideas.

 

We have incompetent and corrupt judges. We have a civil service where you bribe to be served. Police take bribes to allow death traps on our roads. We have urban planners who plan nothing except how to line their pockets. We have regulatory agencies that regulate nothing, including the intake of their fat stomachs.

 

We have advisers who advise on which tenders should go to whom. There is no central organising ethos at the heart of government. There is no sense of national purpose. We have flurries of national activities, policies, legislation, appointments which don’t lead to meaningful growth. We just run on the same spot.

 

Tee Ngugi is a Nairobi-based political commentator

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