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Nigeria may be headed for another recession as economy slows in Q2 2018

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The Nigerian economy has slowed for the second consecutive quarter this year, raising fears the nation may soon be heading for another economic recession.

According to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday, the rate at which the nation’s economy grew in the second quarter of 2018 slowed to 1.50 percent from 1.95 percent recorded in previous quarter.

The GDP growth rate is the rate at which the value of all goods and services produced within a country’s border in a given period is rising.

Nigerian economy had officially slumped into recession in the second quarter of 2016 after recording negative GDP for two consecutive quarters, according to NBS.

Nigeria, which relies on crude oil for 70 percent for its revenue and over 90 percent for its export earnings, slumped into its worst economic woes since 1987 by recording five consecutive negative GDP growth rates from -0.67 percent in Q1 2016 to -0.91 percent in Q1 2017.

The nation’s annual growth rate turned positive in Q2 2017 with GDP growth rate of 0.72 percent and sustained the positive trajectory for five quarters till Q2 2018.

The economy would enter another recession when the GDP figures turn negative for two consecutive quarters.

Read Also: Nigerian stocks hit 10-month low on Dangote drop, election risk

The data indicated that the oil GDP contracted by -3.95 percent from 14.77 percent in Q1 2018, while non-oil GDP grew by 2.05 percent from 0.76 percent in Q1 2018.

Last week, the Statistician-General of NBS, Yemi Kale, had attributed the downturn to the clashes between farmers and herdsmen in some parts of the country.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) had projected that the nation’s economy would grow from 0.8 percent in 2017 to 2.1 percent in 2018 and 2.3 percent in 2019 on the back of an improved outlook for oil prices.

According to the global monetary authority, the forecast “reflects improved prospects for Nigeria’s economy” and supported by the increase in commodity prices like crude oil.

With the GDP figures for the two quarters, the nation now has an average GDP of 1.73 percent for the first half of 2018.

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Food prices drive second straight monthly hike in Nigeria’s inflation

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According to official statistics released on Friday, Nigeria’s inflation rate increased for the second consecutive month in October, rising to 33.88% in annual terms from 32.70% in September, mostly as a result of increasing food costs.

In an attempt to boost economic development and strengthen public finances, President Bola Tinubu devalued the naira and reduced subsidies, which caused inflation to spike in the second half of last year.

As the effects of the naira devaluation started to lessen in July of this year, a slew of hikes in the price of petroleum and devastating floods that destroyed crops once again exacerbated pricing pressures, making the greatest cost-of-living crisis in decades worse in Africa’s most populous country.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, price increases for basics such as rice, maize, bread, potatoes, and cooking oil prompted food inflation to surge from 37.77% in October to 39.16% year over year.

This year, more than 1.5 million hectares of agriculture have been damaged by torrential rain and floods in 29 of Nigeria’s 36 states, leaving millions hungry and displacing large numbers of people.

In an effort to curb inflation, the central bank has raised interest rates five times this year. On November 26, it is expected to make its final rate decision of the year.

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MTN financial report reveals drop in group service revenue

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Due to operational difficulties in Sudan and the depreciation of the Nigerian naira, MTN Group, Africa’s largest telecom provider, announced on Thursday an 18.5% decline in service revenue for the third quarter that concluded on September 30.

With 288 million users in 17 African regions, MTN said that its group service revenue dropped from 156.3 billion rand ($6.99 billion) in the same quarter of the previous year to 127.4 billion rand.

Despite stating that “the naira was less volatile on a sequential basis in Q3 than in preceding quarters,” the business reported a 48.7% decline in MTN Nigeria’s income due to the currency’s depreciation.

Due to a stronger Ugandan shilling than the previous year, Uganda’s largest contributor, MTN South Africa (MTN SA), expanded by a meagre 3.3%.

Due to “subscriber registration regulations in Nigeria and a decline in users in Sudan, where the conflict has displaced millions of people,” the business reported that its subscriber base increased by 1.6% to 288 million.

Given the higher demand in Nigeria despite the legal obstacles, MTN plans to increase its capital expenditures, which it expects would total between 28 and 33 billion rand for the entire year.

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